No New Swing Shorts For Wednesday As The Market Is Still Not In A Confirmed Bear Market
By MauiTrader

3 out of 4 stocks follow the trend of the market. The trend is starting to change but before it does, IF IT DOES, it is going to get very choppy in the short term. With only two distribution days on the markets, there still needs to be a couple more distribution days before we are for sure this market is done. Nobody says a snap back rally can’t occur here. The best time to short most stocks, according to history, is a couple of months or more AFTER their top. There is still plenty of time to go short, if this is the start of a real bear market. I would not short here and since I know that emotions are high I am not even going to post short candidates as I do not recommend going short yet. If I change my mind, they will be listed below.

There are no new swing shorts tonight as the market is not yet in a confirmed clear downtrend.

These charts would be great shorts, if the market was in a downtrend:

WTR long-term daily

GTRC very long-term daily

  No New Swing Shorts For Friday As The Market Still Has Not Confirmed It Is Ready To Go Into A Long Solid Downtrend
By MauiTrader

This market still has some life in it. Even though I am declaring the bull market off the July/Aug lows over, I still am not convinced the market wants to start a solid downtrend yet. Until there are more distribution days on the indexes, it is still too early to operate on the short side. The greatest traders never forced trades when they were not certain about the market trend. Right now we are at that inflection point. We have to wait and see how the market responds to all of this wild and crazy action before I will feel comfy operating on the short side.

If this were a bear market, this is yet another chart I would love to be short. If you take a look at all the charts I have posted the past two weeks, in here, I think you will see the short side is doing well already. So you can imagine the power of these patterns in an all-out bear market.

XOM long-term daily

  No New Swing Shorts For Monday; Four Stocks That Might Make Great Shorts
By MauiTrader

The market still has not failed a rally yet so I still don’t feel comfortable going short until the market shows me it has failed on the bull side.

“At other times, a topping market will recover for a couple of months and get back near or even above its old high before breaking down in earnest. This occurred in December 1976, January 1981, and January 1984. There’s an important psychological reason for this: The majority of people in the market can’t be exactly right at exactly the right time. In 1994, the Nasdaq didn’t top until weeks after the Dow did. A similar thing happened in early 2000.
“The majority in the stock market will be fooled first. This includes both professional and individual investors.”
-William O’Neil, “How To Make Money In Stocks”

Last year I jumped the gun and shorted way too many stocks early on in the breakdown. Even though the market went down, I did not do well on the short-side. The reason was that it was not a real bear market. It was just a downleg (May 2006-July 2006) in an overall bear market. You will see I did have some nice winners. Unfortunately, I had more losers that covered the wins. Hence, why I do not short unless we are in a real bear market.

However, if you are a bit more risk adverse than me, I will let you know that if this market was in a pure downtrend with constant rallies on low volume and heavy volume selloffs, there are four stocks I would love to be going short.

MDR

CIEN

AEM

CENX

For me, personally, it is still not the right time to be shorting stocks but so far most of the shorts I have offered up as nice chart patterns to short in bear markets are already working and working well in AHM and NDE.

Here are some charts that are clearly broken and if we were not down so far so fast I would love to short. I assume most of these will have low volume rallies offering secondary shorting points

TOT weekly

TMA weekly

SSL weekly

ABX on a low volume rally

WFC

CTAS

MVSN

CHL

For me, personally, it is still not the right time to be shorting stocks but so far most of the shorts I have offered up as nice chart patterns to short in bear markets are already working and working well in AHM and NDE.

Here are some charts that are clearly broken and if we were not down so far so fast I would love to short. I assume most of these will have low volume rallies offering secondary shorting points

OMG weekly

KSE daily

After further review I have decided to skip KSE as a good short. In fact, it is a horrible short. The beta is very very low, it pays out a 4.7% dividend, and on top of a 9-10% margin rate, you can forget about making any money on that one.

Just because I am not shorting now, it doesn't mean you can't. I am very disciplined. But if you are already ready to short, you can see everything is working out fine. OMG lost 4.37% today. On margin, you just made an overnight 8.5% gain.

If this was a clear bear market I would be going short these three stocks (clear bear market means 5 to 7 distribution days in past month and a failed low volume rally....like the one we are having now).

SHO weekly

ROK weekly

HMIN daily

If this was a clear bear market I would be going short this stock (clear bear market means 5 to 7 distribution days in past month and a failed low volume rally....like the one we are having now):

TECD

No new shorts for Monday and no new shortable patterns for Monday. The scans were dry.

There are no new swing shorts or new short chart patterns. The closest one I would want to take is CCU and that is not a proper LONG-TERM short pattern.

The homebuilders are FUCKED

Those charts are now all destroyed.

New swing shorts: GDP GG FITB CNB MTG GS WAG SNY

17:17:07 [MauiTrader] NOTHING

17:17:33 [MauiTrader] NO NEW SWING LONGS FOR WEDNESDAY

17:17:42 [MauiTrader] is that the first time that has happened or second?

17:19:40 [MauiTrader] second

17:19:50 [MauiTrader] Tuesday on the other big selloff there was nothing

17:20:03 [MauiTrader] this is the first day in a long time that i can remember

17:20:10 [MauiTrader] where the day started sunny and turned to rainy

17:20:16 [MauiTrader] probably in over a year

17:20:20 [MauiTrader] during the day

17:20:26 [MauiTrader] so today is very special for me

17:20:28 [MauiTrader] lol

17:21:56 [MauiTrader] going over my port

17:22:05 [MauiTrader] i will do the shrots later as i have already given you a list

17:22:10 [MauiTrader] during the day

17:31:41 [MauiTrader] 11 stocks to sell off

17:31:52 [MauiTrader] 13 to take some profits/losses on

17:36:13 [MauiTrader] ok here we go with the short

17:36:32 [MauiTrader] iffy short: DDS

17:36:36 [MauiTrader] it has cracked

17:37:05 [MauiTrader] PXD cracking

17:37:25 [MauiTrader] ARXT is in trouble

17:38:08 [MauiTrader] i already gave you heads up on KSE

17:38:20 [MauiTrader] but the yield is too high

17:38:22 [MauiTrader] 4.7%

17:38:24 [MauiTrader] too much

17:38:44 [MauiTrader] SNY rollover

17:39:04 [MauiTrader] that is my favoirte so far

17:39:15 [MauiTrader] GENZ in trouble

17:39:29 [MauiTrader] goign to go short WAG

17:40:14 [MauiTrader] TEK uh oh

17:40:57 [MauiTrader] going to go short GS

17:41:11 [MauiTrader] PPH rolling over

17:41:18 [MauiTrader] SONC rolling over

17:41:34 [MauiTrader] SPY UGLY!

17:41:42 [MauiTrader] RTH UGLY!

17:42:29 [MauiTrader] SNV going to get hit

17:43:19 [MauiTrader] WMT goodnight

17:43:58 [MauiTrader] EMN failure

17:44:21 [MauiTrader] CB in BIG trouble

17:44:31 [MauiTrader] going short MTG

17:45:30 [MauiTrader] i would go short WB but yield is 4.7%

17:46:23 [MauiTrader] BBT ouch

17:46:44 [MauiTrader] USG rolling over and failing moving averages

17:47:28 [MauiTrader] going short CNB

17:47:55 [MauiTrader] omg, WFC is screwed

17:48:13 [MauiTrader] BBV goodnight

17:48:32 [MauiTrader] BAC OH GOD!

17:48:35 [MauiTrader] BAC is don

17:48:37 [MauiTrader] done

17:49:14 [MauiTrader] C in trouble

17:49:26 [MauiTrader] PFG is a short

17:49:35 [MauiTrader] God almighty it is HORRIBLE

17:49:39 [MauiTrader] HORRIBLE out there

17:49:54 [MauiTrader] i havent seen this since 00

17:49:58 [MauiTrader] i swear

17:50:01 [MauiTrader] this is ugly

17:50:04 [MauiTrader] what is very scary

17:50:09 [MauiTrader] is that this is in great stocks

17:50:14 [MauiTrader] with high EPS

17:50:30 [MauiTrader] RDN done!

17:50:46 [MauiTrader] MHP hardcore breakdown

17:50:59 [MauiTrader] RF kaboom!

17:51:20 [MauiTrader] MPG is going to crash

17:51:30 [MauiTrader] NCC HORRIBLE reversal

17:52:08 [MauiTrader] going short FITB

17:52:27 [MauiTrader] cma heavy breakdown

17:52:37 [MauiTrader] OH WOW!!

17:52:43 [MauiTrader] your old leaders of the whole bull market

17:52:48 [MauiTrader] the top dog is dying

17:52:49 [MauiTrader] TS

17:52:55 [MauiTrader] rolling over

17:53:21 [MauiTrader] JPM going to back and fill but it is topping

17:53:50 [MauiTrader] this is going to be ugly unless somebody HUGE comes in and supports us here soon

17:54:16 [MauiTrader] WM wow

17:54:21 [MauiTrader] PHM wow

17:54:29 [MauiTrader] RCII major breakdown

17:54:49 [MauiTrader] MS breaking down

17:55:15 [MauiTrader] TMA major breakdown

17:55:42 [MauiTrader] LEH wow

17:55:52 [MauiTrader] PMI horrible reversal

17:55:59 [MauiTrader] MCO major breakdown

17:56:17 [MauiTrader] AMP topping

17:56:43 [MauiTrader] going short GG

17:56:52 [MauiTrader] another OLD leader

17:56:55 [MauiTrader] bighting the dust

17:57:39 [MauiTrader] BSC giong to be destroyed

17:57:50 [MauiTrader] CHIC rollover

17:58:13 [MauiTrader] another HUGE winner ILMN...goodnight

17:58:26 [MauiTrader] oil stock dying....GDP

17:58:36 [MauiTrader] another huge winner clearly topping and rolling voer

17:59:11 [MauiTrader] ACF is going to be destroyed

17:59:27 [MauiTrader] going short GDP

17:59:34 [MauiTrader] 8 new shorts are being put on

17:59:39 [MauiTrader] expect short analysis

17:59:43 [MauiTrader] strictly on technicals

17:59:47 [MauiTrader] i am going to the gym

one new swing short: RVBD

I am covering 25% of all my shorts taken this morning, except MTG. I did not get filled on SNY.

The market looks like it made a decent short-term low today and many of the shorts I just took look to be putting in some form of a "I am not ready to be shorted yet" signal.

These stock with the damage that they produced yesterday should have tanked today. The fact that they did not clearly tells me this market is still too young to short or go long.

Keep that cash heavy.

Short: GG GDP FITB MTG CNB GS WAG WB RVBD

one new swing short: PLCE