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General Market Observations  This thread currently has 26,398 views. Print
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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 7:47:56am Report to Moderator
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This is where you can ask me your questions about distribution days, uptrends, accumulation days, golden crosses, and market leadership, etc....
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 8:48:03am Report to Moderator
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welcome back!
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Breaker
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 11:16:28am Report to Moderator
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Similar post-a.m. reversal today.  Seems the recent trend pulling the opposite of what we were seeing before, instead of a.m. upside reversals, seeing strength into weak profit-taking opens.  Volume increased yesterday over Monday, and on pace to beat yesterday's volume.  Interesting, to say the least.   My top 10 holdings are all green today.  First time that's happened since I started bottom-feeding in early July.

Doesn't necessarily imply breadth, because in the Nasdaq I believe lows are still outpacing highs.  Rather seems to suggest company-to-company, my buy decisions are holding up and volume on this current bounce is increasing (for now).
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 12:52:19pm Report to Moderator
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very constructive action going on lately, stay tuned!
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 1:09:19pm Report to Moderator
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Market is bouncing around here...trying to decide where the heck to go!


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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Breaker
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 1:26:37pm Report to Moderator
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Level to watch on the Nasdaq short term is 2086.07, last Wednesday's high, potential resistance and/or break-out point.  S&P 2083.38, July 3rd top.
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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 1:54:11pm Report to Moderator
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This market is looking good. Steady climb into the last hour. However, my scans still don't have any nice breakouts but they really, I guess, are not supposed to. If we can get a follow through the next four to ten days I do have some charts showing up that are setting up nice right sides of their bases. Also I have a lot more tech related stocks showing up on my scan. That can only be positive.

This along with the oversold conditions of ALL oscillators looks good to me, for now.
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:14:56pm Report to Moderator
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great folder! this will be my home for now
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:15:53pm Report to Moderator
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Dow jones transports confirming a double @ 5000 today with a close below 4400
yikes!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:16:11pm Report to Moderator
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Crap you called it first!

I am going out on a limb and saying this will be heavily used.


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:25:46pm Report to Moderator
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Good thing I am short the IYT
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:30:05pm Report to Moderator
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Was going to hop into MERQ this morning...freakin HP had to announce they were buying before I could get into it...COME ON NOW!  LOL


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:34:16pm Report to Moderator
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you buy Pink shitts stocks often?
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:39:15pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from Y._Gross
you buy Pink shitts stocks often?


was this directed at me?

No not at all, just popped in one of IBD's screens...chart looked decent...


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:41:25pm Report to Moderator
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was just kidding
merq was just dropped off in pink sheets till they would get their accounting back in order
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:43:02pm Report to Moderator
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on a day AMZN GLW BA and a truck load of transportation stocks are getting nailed hard to make sense how the broader market is higher
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:45:01pm Report to Moderator
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getting weaker as we get into the close.


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 2:53:04pm Report to Moderator
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Boy this isn't any good.


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 3:09:32pm Report to Moderator
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woah for a moment i thought that you got booted again
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Market Speculator
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 3:13:10pm Report to Moderator
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this is much better, thank you De


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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mac
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 3:48:41pm Report to Moderator
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Curious, Josh, can you put some of those stocks you see forming right sides on the watch list tonight?    I see a few that I'm watching - LMIA, KNOL, HSR, BAM, MENT, CYBS, IGT, FIZ - but still not a ton of nice charts.   I know you are already long some of these stocks.  

These oil stocks, after looking so shortable a few days ago, have really come back strong, and on volume in most cases.    Is this setting up for another shorting opportunity?    What's everyone think?
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mac
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 3:54:18pm Report to Moderator
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This isn't really related to the market overall, but has anybody ever seen a more volatile five days in a chart than SUPX?   Crazy.
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Y._Gross
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 5:13:21pm Report to Moderator
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all you bidu lovers out there you can kiss it goodbye
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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 5:32:45pm Report to Moderator
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mac, tonight on the stocks on radar screen I will list all charts with possible nice right sides that are NOT EXTENDED like HSR LMIA KNOL BAM IGT. These are all longs are were longs a long time ago. You are only chasing now.

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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 5:33:26pm Report to Moderator
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SUPX one short not whipping me around. Nice and down.
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mac
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 9:26:43pm Report to Moderator
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Josh, got your list - thanks.    You might look at QGEN as a possible long if it can get past $15.50.   Also SVNT has been in a sideways range for a while - could be a possible breakout above $6.    Has several high volume down days though.
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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 9:42:02pm Report to Moderator
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New Swing Longs: WNR JLL ILC SMTX

New Swing Shorts: AGP RJF MAR BFAM LDSH STNR KEX NCI EXBD DDE

Longs Outperforming: OMNI-186 TWTC-129 KNOL-152 HMSY SEIC VLG-30 BWP JTX ALTH IDEV EYE AMV

Shorts Outperforming: GYI JOYG WSM MEOH APOL TXRH NAFC SUPX CSX BPFH USG ELY AMAT RES MAFB FRZ CTCO XNPT MAS PII CXG RCNI POOL PWC OPTN IYT TM NTE GE WFSL HTLD BLK HCBK WERN VB RS CAT WTFC CNI DSL CATY AF GVA IFX FLR CPF XPRSA

Stocks On Radar Screen: BER DXPE AXE NSSC TCK PETD RA FRX HEI DIGE ALY BRR IDTI CHINA DIL CONR STEC TPX SWIR TDS PR CSL ATRM HEIA

Covering Shorts: IKN ULTI MWIV OIH
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MauiTrader
Wednesday, July 26, 2006, 9:44:11pm Report to Moderator
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QGEN would be nice if it wasnt for all that selling on the left side of the cup

SVNT weekly is nice but on the daily I have way more tall red bars than green bars. I want to see the opposite.
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phailin
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 6:06:45am Report to Moderator
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Technical Analysis:  the 3 day swing chart turned up yesterday when the sp traded above tuesday's high.  The last time the 3 day swing chart turned positive it marked the last 1280 high at the beginning of July.  Thus, the markets will look to take a breather here.  The sp has buyable support at 1265 then more importantly at 1260 with last ditch buyable support at 1255.  Given that the oscillatiors and the arms indecies are still oversold the pullback will most likely be modest and short lived this time around.  Plus these are the final days of the month, a strong time for stocks.  Technically, this is about the easiest call i have seen in a long time with the market.  If you care to short, the immediate term should be shorted only to the supports listed above.  The market as we all know likes to dish out max pain, and that pain lays above at 1280.  As well, the next 1280 top is the 3rd top and sets up an explosion top as the third in a series often do.  You can just imagine how many stops are set just above at 1280.5,1281,1282,1283 for short covering.  In my experience, these stops will be triggered in a false breakout to shake out shorts before breaking lower.  With shorts shaken out of their stops the playout of the third top rollover leading to an explosive leg down seem almost imminent.  But as the Rev Shark says, you play what's in front of you here and now.  That means between 1260-1265 longs can be set up for what looks to be a 1280-1285 run, that gives 20 sp points to safely play with.  To me that next fed meeting is looking more and more like a sell the news event.  One last thing.  Don't play earnings.  Reading the blog's on Rev's real money site, i can't believe how many people trade like it's a casino.  From yesterday.."i just went long 50 akam calls for .50, don't know what i bought really but i think they'll have good numbers"  Followed by comments such as "congratulations, good call on akam, way to go".  I have never, not even in the tech bubble, seen companies getting crushed as much this time around.  IV on most every option i scan is pricing in on average an 7% move where the moves are closer to 12%.  NTRI is just mind boggling to me.  Yet people continue to play earnings in a minefield.  Goto a casino and bet on black, or red instead.  Stay in cash, or wait for this pullback coming up and then go with Josh's longs for the next couple of weeks until the 1280 breakout occurs, you can make some good safe cash that way.  Success to all.
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mike722
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 7:47:06am Report to Moderator
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Market, hows the wife doing??

Baby should be coming soon right?
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ORKiter
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 9:00:03am Report to Moderator
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josh, could you possibly go over what overbought/oversold indicators you find effective for reading the mkt ....or if anyone wants to share any that they use ?
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danimisce2
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NIce opening today, Breaker your Nz resistance is quite broken. Sorry for the funny pun.

SIM is nice, also.

D.
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Breaker
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Hehe   Yup, broke nicely above Wednesday's high on its first try, but turned back just shy of the the 20-day.  Still watching both levels.

On my long side, SIM, CHAP, AP, BUCY, WIRE, SPSX, LMIA, PWEI all outperforming on the materials/infrastructure side.  This mornings durables might give them a bit of follow-through.
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Breaker
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Wow, Nat gas draw going to take the whole complex higher.  At least for the initial move.
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Market Speculator
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 9:53:12am Report to Moderator
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I almost had a heart attack this morning...couldn't get onto this site!!!  NOW I'M BACK IN BLACK...yes music is playing behind me!


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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ORKiter
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 10:11:00am Report to Moderator
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sure seems to be a lot of people say were going higher now vs. prior lots of "sell on any rallies" now its buy the breakout above recent resistance......mkt still very unhealthy with fact that August is historically 1 of the worst performing months historically i dont see a big case for going long.
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Market Speculator
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Yield curve is still inverted...

Maty     Yield
2 yr - - 5.042
3 yr - - 5.005
5 yr - - 4.976
10yr -- 5.032
30yr -- 5.104


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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huajian_us
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 10:46:11am Report to Moderator
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transportaition break down under 200sma.  This one has to hold in order to have a health market, look at charts, it breaks few times, then quickly pull back.

xlb is down and xlu is up, this is not good either
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MauiTrader
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 11:26:35am Report to Moderator
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ORKiter: Read the Helene Meisler articles I post. They go over some of them there. There is the McClellan summation index, the 10 day average of adv/dec, 10 day avg. upside/downside volume, arms index, and stochastics.
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Market Speculator
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 11:32:36am Report to Moderator
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Guys be kind to TheAprentice...trying to bring him along slowly...he is a newbie!


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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MauiTrader
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 11:33:42am Report to Moderator
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Who is being mean to him?! I will jack that dude up. j/k.

That is probably the guy who wants to kill me. j/k again.
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MauiTrader
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 11:34:19am Report to Moderator
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I didn't say my jokes were funny. Was that a joke?
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Market Speculator
Thursday, July 27, 2006, 11:37:04am Report to Moderator
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Man Josh...I thought I was jacked up with testostrone...

No one was being mean...he likes to ask questions...so I was making people aware.


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Liver