I have some nice cheese here for that "WHINE"

ok, back to the questions...Can this market get any more boring?  YES

Boring day for the market, no light at the end of the tunnel for the moment.  

I find the "Wall St. Machine" simply amazing.  All day every day all you hear is what some expert saying what he is buying at the moment.  Very seldom do you find someone who says I'm not doing a darn thing...I am 100% cash.  I've been around since '01 (January of '01) and I can't even think of one person who has said GET INTO CASH...now, granted there have been very few times of late to go into cash but check out a chart from Jan '01 to Oct '02 and you'll see cash was a great place to be.  

Of course, you wouldn't hear CNBC put on any short sellers at the time nor would you now.  What does this all mean?

95% of what you hear from Wall St. is non-sense.  IBD and what you'll get in this forum is the best stuff around.  Really make it a point to study hard all of Josh's longs/shorts he posts...and if you have an observation or question...ask.

http://vse.marketwatch.com/Game/StartViewGame.aspx?id=investorparadise

Monday, July 31, 2006
A Quiet Lower Volume Day Kept Things The Same As It Was On Friday.
Nothing has changed but I will find something to write about.

New Swing Longs: LNCE--for more info on longs and shorts go to Investors Paradise.

New Swing Shorts: NONE

Longs Outperforming: OMNI-198 AKAM-148 HSR-49 IHS-60 CTCI-75 USEY-43 VLG-35 TRMA RNST IGT DJO HMSY BWP DGX SEIC BOT CXW FORR MGLN IDEV DLP GISX ZONS DUCK

Shorts Outperforming: NTE CRXL JOYG BPFH USG WSM HCBK AVID MEOH MAFB BTH ISCA BLK BBBY GTRC GYI PBE MAS IYT FRC GE WFSL PDCO ESIO C AME HTLD NCC RS CAT WTFC AF DSL CNI HMY FWLT CPF FDX VLTR MAR DDE CGX LHO SYNA RRGB CI AHG

Covering Shorts: CTCO NAFC HNR

Stocks On Radar Screen: BRN--might go long 100 shares UTK ALY ISYS TRMB SHPGY ESI DIGE BAX BTE BKD BUF CHINA

You would almost think that the biggest suprise to the market would be a big vol
breakout to the upside. I am almost 100% wrong most of the time. From what I read and see I am confident this market is going down. IBD is negative, most experienced investors seem to be negative most  all the technicals are negative. Even if the market were to rally I think I would not believe it is the real thing. I am waiting for the big bottom in Oct. just like everyone else.Because everyone knows we will have a 4 yearcycle low this year and its going to occur in Oct.

So I am short and in cash waiting for the big low to come in Oct. I am almost sure of it.

The problem is I am almost 100% wrong most of the time.

bappp, that is what is so great about the market, it keeps you on your toes and keeps it from being too easy otherwise everyone would be trading stocks.......but CANSLIM makes sense so it works if you stick to its guidelines......on another note interesting that weak volume rally last week tied to everyone expecting Fed to not raise rates next week and its also showing in fed futures that increase will stop but no one commented on Natural Gas spiking to new high and electricity prices spiking to record levels with the heatwave so INFLATION IS HAPPENING,so i dont see why people would be looking for longs right now with all the negative divergences we've pointed out on this board-looks like major bear trap......especially if this friday's jobs report isnt what market is expecting, mkt could get clocked

LOL. And that my friends is why the market is sooo exciting. You NEVER know what is going to happen in the future.

All you have is the past and that past can guide you on the future. It doesn't matter what happens anyways. The charts will tell us when it is time to get long. Getting the charts like I am on my scans are not what you have in a bullish market. LNCEs' dont come up on the scans in bullish tapes.

Also look at all those stocks on the radar screen. So many possibilities but how many will create beautiful well formed charts? Probably not many. DIGE is cool BRN is very cool. UTK too wild. ALY could be very pretty just not ready. ISYS is that a double bottom? I can't even tell. TRMB something doesnt look right. I don't even know what it is but something is wrong. SHPGY I am waiting. ESI it looks like it isnt going to go very far. BTE too new. BKD and BUF burned me twice. Need to wait for breakout. CHINA is CHINA...wild and dirty.

bappp, you are well on your way to financial success. Not sure how long the journey is going to take but mentally you are ready for success. Acknowledging you are almost always wrong LIKE ME WITH SHORT_TERM TREND CHANGES is the first step to knowing what to do right.

One of Cooper's strongest directional biased posts in a while...here is a snippet of what he'll be posting on real money tomorrow....

As anticipated last week, the month of July ended near its highs with the S&P poised to turn the important monthly swing chart up -- probably as early as Tuesday. The behavior on any such move up over the next few days above July's highs will be important to observe. It will tell us something about the message of the market, the position of the market, and its bias going forward at this crucial turning point.
In addition, the S&P traced out an NR7 signal Monday -- the narrowest trading range in the last seven days.
Consequently, the market is wound up going into this turning point in August. Whether or not this turning point will be the first week in August or stretch into later in
the month is not knowable. However, ninety degrees ago in time was the first week in May, which was a turning point and a high. Ninety degrees prior to that was the low the first week of February. Therefore I would not give a rollover early in August a lot of room to hurt you. It is possible the S&P could probe the 1300 level, which is the breakdown point on any celebration of a pause by the Fed. But, at the same time, the history of the Federal Reserve over the last 30 years or so is to push the envelope too far and cause a financial accident, if not a recession. Another rate hike on Aug. 8 into an already inverted yield curve -- especially in a market that has rallied into the Fed meeting -- may dovetail nicely, but this is the mother of all cyclical and technical selling opportunities.
As anticipated last week, the month of July ended near its highs with the S&P poised to turn the important monthly swing chart up -- probably as early as Tuesday. The behavior on any such move up over the next few days above July's highs will be important to observe. It will tell us something about the message of the market, the position of the market, and its bias going forward at this crucial turning point.
In addition, the S&P traced out an NR7 signal Monday -- the narrowest trading range in the last seven days. Consequently, the market is wound up going into this turning point in August. Whether or not this turning point will be the first week in August or stretch into later in the month is not knowable. However, ninety degrees ago in time was the first week in May, which was a turning point and a high. Ninety degrees prior to that was the low the first week of February. Therefore I would not give a rollover early in August a lot of room to hurt you. It is possible the S&P could probe the 1300 level, which is the breakdown point on any celebration of a pause by the Fed. But, at the same time, the history of the Federal Reserve over the last 30 years or so is to push the envelope too far and cause a financial accident, if not a recession. Another rate hike on Aug. 8 into an already inverted yield curve -- especially in a market that has rallied into the Fed meeting -- may dovetail nicely, but this is the mother
of all cyclical and technical selling opportunities.

For the most part, the varsity team is usually off the desk in August, leaving a light and uneventful month. But this August may prove different with the most important Fed decision in a long time at hand; the 18th consecutive rate hike looms as last week's lower-than-expected GDP number and still-hot inflation numbers face off, raising concerns for stagflation. The transportation index is confirming a slowdown, while at the same time oil -- and the strongest equity group, the oil sector -- is threatening a climatic spike, which may in fact help drive the S&P to a potential probe of 1300. The important thing to remember is that with the rebirth of volatility over the last two months, the question remains as to why any of us should believe that any slowdown in the economy won't get overdone and lead to something more than just a slowdown with that backdrop. It is my opinion that any spike in the commodity stocks in August will also be a selling opportunity, prior to a possible multimonth washout in an ongoing commodity bull market.

Conclusion: August has historically been an interesting month for big turns prior to sharp declines in the fall. Two significant turning points come to mind: August 1929 and August 1987, not to mention August 2000. Interestingly, all three summers coincided with record heat waves. Of course, who's silly enough to bet on cycles? Who's silly enough to bet that the breakout last May would have seen an immediate downside reversal?

Absolutely a brilliant trader, Jeff Cooper. Great article. Thank you a ton, phailin.

a note on volitility...

VIX index closed @ 14.95 yesterday...

It has come off its highs in July of 19.58.  

Hard to agrue with him

Here is the Dow Jones Industrial averaging May '87 to Dec '87

You can see the run up...then then crash...

FOR EVERYONE...notice the red at the beginning of Sept through the first two weeks in Oct.  Bloomy doesn't have volume data but you can see the distribution days piling up...

Boy did Nasdaq just decided to take a leap off a ledge this morning.