You know thats odd that stockcharts.com shows a different chart than my service. Prophet also has a different chart than either! (But Prophet I know double-dips the dividend, making what I'd say is very inaccurate chart data!) I've attached a chart that reflects what I've been making my decisions on. Anyways, I agree on the issue lacking volume but that may come when the issue makes a new high over 31.46... In the meantime, I'm happy with the fact that the avg vol is 313K and it is trading over 500K today. I realize that NST may come back towards 29ish and fill in but that is something I'm willing to accept. In addition, the MACD is on a clear bullish signal and is confirmed by the RSI. The ROC moving above the zero line makes for a triple confirmation. As fas as the standard "peak and trough" analysis, there's no question that there is also a buyt signal as it crossed above 30.16 yesterday... It's always interesting to see a differing viewpoint - thanks!
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wow, NAZ volume is non-existent....looks like mkt will rally into close......mkt in no mans land breaking above resistance on crappy volume and negative divergences everywhere. Monday end of month should be interesting.....this rally should clean out some pessimism and show which shorts are rallying on weak volume and failing at resistance again......time to just walk away and enjoy the weekend
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Cramer and Cooper have this thing nailed right to a tee. This week, and for certain this coming Monday is all about the end of the month squaring of positions, artificial buying. That's why there is no volume, there's no institutional follow through here, we all agree? What it did was help push the oscillator towards the 80% overbought category. But that's not the big point that needs to be made. sp is making its 3rd crack at 1280. But as Josh, myself, Rev Shark, Cooper have all noticed is that there is a dearth of good looking charts, and an ever increasing number of shortable looking charts. The rally hardly follwed through to the small caps. There is a serious deterioration under the market going on, led by the transportation sector. But the market never, ever, ever does what it should right away without first causing a head fake to the wrong side. That head fake occurs on trades over 1280 to set off the stops hidden up there. This week was a low volume push to get us to the point where we can have the one or perhaps 2 days next week where we trade over 1280 and CNBC has an official bull party with Bob Pisani leading the charge. We need to see the alert box come up on CNBC "SP breaks 1280" or something like that. Once the s&p hits 1282-1285, that's the time to put on the shorts on all these ugly looking charts. But not until then. When the money pulls out of the parabalic move de jour, namely, the pharmacuticals, that'll be the iceburg hitting the titanic.
Long PPH calls until it cracks, short CVH. That's where the money rotation is at now.
by the way, anybody who follows Jeff Cooper knows that the market plays out in 3's, and a third failed breakthrough attempt leads to the strongest whoosh down following the failure.
Convincing points Phailin. No doubt this recent action is flimsy. I agree it has the reek of late month run-up. A "thumb in the eye" reversal waiting ahead. No volume at these levels, will be interesting to see what happens early next week. I certainly will be notching up the stops on my longs. I like your term move de jour - the health and medical names are priming to get dunked.
When the real rally emerges from this miasma, whenever it eventually does happen, it will be broad-based. Growth is slowing, but this is not recession. My main curiousity is whether we see lower lows in the indices or whether these recent lows hold. Certainly more a probability in the Nasdaq than the other two. Any thoughts guys?
Breaker..."growth is slowing", yes it is and "its not a recession", for the here and now, correct. Again, playing the "the market plays out in 3's" angle, the s&p has tested the low twice, and this is the third test of 1280 completing the cycle for the upside. No doubt, once the market rolls over from 1280 it will have branded that level as the official broad-based level from which the bull market will return. But not yet. There is too much deterioration underlaying the market at present moment and we are caught in the mindset at least of a slowing economy. So, i see no other possibility than the market retreating late next week from the 1282-84 level, probably intraday, leaving a lizard sell signal. Gun to head, it happens next Thursday or Friday. From there i suspect in August sometime the s&p will test the low for the 3rd time. The Nasdaq will do so as well. Mabey sooner than later since 3rd rejections of key resistances lead to accelerated declines. Preferably, i would love the market to pull back from 1280 since that 'pepe le peu's' that number with skunk spray and further down the road lets us pretty much know when things return to normal. Meanwhile, after next week plays out, i'd want to be short more than long.
I pretty much agree with all of your assessments. Seeing as though 20 of the 30 names I track are all at or near the peak of their channel, it seems that we have a few days before the scenario you describe plays out. Obviously the market loves to play with expectations, so I have set my stops and won't worry so much about the timing of it.
I posted a rhetorical question. Once you get used to me you know that I am a sarcastic SOB. This happens all the time. Quarter end, month end, year end.
Bottom line, I am a bottom line guy if any of you have noticed...NO VOLUME rally. Head fake, this will suck in people who think this is the bottom only to sucker them in...Remember the suckers change the game doesn't. This time is no different.
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
eugj, you didn't see the post where I said I was going surfing because the market was acting funny. Look at my trading. i am an EOD trader. I take all my positions and do all my trading after the bell. Did you see my longs posted and shorts posted every night? Did you see all the talking yesterday? I am not around during market hours all the time because it is a silly habit that traders have and it can get them into trouble. I live on Maui. Give me a break.
I would rather surf at the age of 27 and make big money swing trading than sitting in front of a computer all day worrying about my positions.
market speculator is here to do the intraday thing everyday. He is the man that can analyze the market all day long. We are part of a team but this is my creation. I am the guy that comes up with the stuff that actually makes you money and if you don't think I post why don't you do me a favor and look at the number under the words "posts" under my name next to this message.
Take a chill pill, read all the valuable insight on this forum, and when I feel the need to comment on something important know that I will be there.
Also, how many pros do you know that stay online all the time after hours????? I don't know any. If anything living on Maui is a blessing. You don't need me intraday. You need me afterhours. I can't help you with the casino. When I gamble I go to the real thing in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. If I wanted excitement I wouldn't have picked daytrading. If you want me to talk talk talk while the casino is open that is fair. But if I want to make money and still live on Maui to help all my readers I have to do it the way I do it.
If you can't tell Market Speculator is also very well qualified to handle the workload.
Cramer and Cooper have this thing nailed right to a tee. This week, and for certain this coming Monday is all about the end of the month squaring of positions, artificial buying. That's why there is no volume, there's no institutional follow through here, we all agree? What it did was help push the oscillator towards the 80% overbought category. But that's not the big point that needs to be made. sp is making its 3rd crack at 1280. But as Josh, myself, Rev Shark, Cooper have all noticed is that there is a dearth of good looking charts, and an ever increasing number of shortable looking charts. The rally hardly follwed through to the small caps. There is a serious deterioration under the market going on, led by the transportation sector. But the market never, ever, ever does what it should right away without first causing a head fake to the wrong side. That head fake occurs on trades over 1280 to set off the stops hidden up there. This week was a low volume push to get us to the point where we can have the one or perhaps 2 days next week where we trade over 1280 and CNBC has an official bull party with Bob Pisani leading the charge. We need to see the alert box come up on CNBC "SP breaks 1280" or something like that. Once the s&p hits 1282-1285, that's the time to put on the shorts on all these ugly looking charts. But not until then. When the money pulls out of the parabalic move de jour, namely, the pharmacuticals, that'll be the iceburg hitting the titanic.
Long PPH calls until it cracks, short CVH. That's where the money rotation is at now.
This is a brilliant post and obviously by reading my blog we are in complete agreement. The EOM markup along with everyone seeing the technical damage forced a rally today. I was just too darn obvious to everyone that stocks broke everywhere. So one big head fake like today makes people wonder what the heck is going on. I still stand with my thesis and agree completely with this post. Great analysis.
Your call on PPH is a brilliant play. I always make sure the implied volatility in the option is low when I buy it I hope you didn't pay too much for it. But the chart is very nice. Nothing spectacular but still nice.
CVH is another great short. It is on my scan and definitely would have been flagged. I have only glanced at it but I believe just after a split second of analysis I will be following you in this trade.
Bottom line, I am a bottom line guy if any of you have noticed...NO VOLUME rally. Head fake, this will suck in people who think this is the bottom only to sucker them in...Remember the suckers change the game doesn't. This time is no different.
Agree I am a bottom up guy. Market stinks, sector leadership stinks, individual stocks in exciting industries stink, and that is about it. We can speculate on the future all we want but I only deal with the facts. Facts say this rally is weak, hitting resistance, and is ripe for sellers to come back out. Remember in the other downtrends I had a lot of beautiful charts or stocks pulling back on low volume. Now I have an extremely low number of good charts (and they are all in boring sectors) and a lot of stocks pulling back on HUGE volume. Facts say this market is in a downtrend. That is all we need to know.
But if you have to guess and try to predict the future, Phailin has mentioned a great chartist (whos' articles I post on the 'articles' forum) named Jeff Cooper that is a Gann master. I don't like all that fancy stuff but I do understand it and his analysis of square of nine and many other esoteric indicators are usually spot on. When they don't pan out it also usually means a major reversal is happening. The lizard sell signal that Phailin refers to a very important signal that Jeff Cooper uses. Try looking it up on Google and see if you can find any articles on him. Good stuff.
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