Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
1. Did you ever lose time from work or school due to gambling? NO 2. Has gambling ever made your home life unhappy? NO 3. Did gambling affect your reputation? YES 4. Have you ever felt remorse after gambling? NO 5. Did you ever gamble to get money with which to pay debts or otherwise solve financial difficulties? NO 6. Did gambling cause a decrease in your ambition or efficiency? NO 7. After losing did you feel you must return as soon as possible and win back your losses? LOL, NO 8. After a win did you have a strong urge to return and win more? YES 9. Did you often gamble until your last dollar was gone? NO 10. Did you ever borrow to finance your gambling? NO 11. Have you ever sold anything to finance gambling? NO 12. Were you reluctant to use "gambling money" for normal expenditures? YES 13. Did gambling make you careless of the welfare of yourself or your family? NO 14. Did you ever gamble longer than you had planned? YES 15. Have you ever gambled to escape worry or trouble? NO 16. Have you ever committed, or considered committing, an illegal act to finance gambling? NO 17. Did gambling cause you to have difficulty in sleeping? NO 18. Do arguments, disappointments or frustrations create within you an urge to gamble? NO 19. Did you ever have an urge to celebrate any good fortune by a few hours of gambling? YES 20. Have you ever considered self destruction or suicide as a result of your gambling? NO
Most compulsive gamblers will answer yes to at least seven of these questions.[/quote]
i thought this was appropriate with the mkt at highs, some people get emotional and feel pressure to chase stocks so they "dont miss out" but this is the worst time to be undisciplined....when the trend is obvious to everyone, you need to be more picky on your purchases and buy points.......dont go taking out a home equity line to buy stocks up here
The Power of Emotions
Don't underestimate the power that your emotions can have over your ability to trade the markets rationally and skillfully. Jack naively thought he could handle anything, even a high level of risk, but he overestimated his abilities and missed a significant market move. He bet 20% of his capital on a single trade that he thought couldn't lose. At the time it made sense. The company had strong fundamentals. It usually traded between $60 and $62, but was talked up by a media analyst and reached a new high of $64. It seemed likely to reach $65 by the end of the week due to increased interest in its industry group, so he bought as much as he could buy. Jack had it all planned out. All he had to do was patiently wait for the price to hit $65, and sell before it returned to its usual range of $60-62. He just had to stay calm and carefully monitor the trade. After a week of a great deal of market interest, the price hit $65. But did Jack see it? He actually looked at his screen but did not see it hit $65. He expected to see it at $64 and that's what he saw. Why didn't he see it? He was too anxious and afraid. The extreme stress clouded his judgment. There are many traders who think this cannot happen to them. Maybe it doesn't happen to everyone, but there are many traders who are so stressed out at times that they cannot see clearly.
The human brain is not wired to process subtle details under pressure. When under extreme stress, humans are programmed to act broadly rather than specifically: Humans either want to lash out or run away. Trading, however, requires a more careful examination of the situation. If you are the kind of person who is easily shaken, then it is necessary to make sure you take precautions to stay calm and rational.
As a rule of thumb, it's never a good idea to make a big trade. Does that mean that big trades never pay off? Of course they do. But you have to decide how you want to approach the trading profession. Do you want to hope for a long shot to pay off or do you want to make smaller, reasonable trades and make steady progress toward realistic financial goals? If you make big trades, and risk a large portion of your trading capital that you cannot afford to risk, then you will feel stressed out and be prone to trading errors. So follow the advice of most trading experts and trade with money you can afford to lose and limit your risk on any single trade.
It's also essential to know your risk tolerance. If you have trouble taking risks, then don't take big risks. Rather than making big trades that push the limits of your risk tolerance, make smaller trades. You might think it will take longer to reach your financial objectives, but if you have trouble handling high levels of risk, then the odds are that you will tend to choke when making big trades, and never reach your financial goals. You will do better controlling risk, waiting for high probability setups (rather than long shots), and making slow but steady progress. In the end, overall profits are all that matter. By controlling your emotions, you will increase your odds of becoming a winning trader.
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Investor's Business Daily Don't Rely On IBD Ratings Alone To Invest Monday December 4, 7:00 pm ET Marie Beerens
The reason you're reading this is probably because you use IBD to get stock ideas and educate yourself about the stock market.
While the paper does serve as a valuable source of information, it's imperative for readers and investors to go the next step.
ADVERTISEMENT click here That means using careful chart analysis and sound judgment before buying stocks.
Most IBD features highlight stocks based on a particular set of criteria. The IBD 100, for instance, runs every Monday.
The 100 stocks in the list are selected and ranked based on each company's profit growth, relative strength and other factors.
Other IBD features will look at a wide array of criteria, including return on equity, pretax margin, management ownership and sponsorship rating.
But you should never buy a stock based on IBD ratings alone.
To maximize your chances of success, you need to closely look at the stock's chart. The best time to get into a stock is just as it's crossing an ideal buy point on a powerful surge in volume. You don't want to buy a stock extended any more than 5% from a proper buy point.
The most successful chart patterns include the cup-shaped, cup-with-handle, flat, double-bottom and three-weeks-tight bases.
A strong base should show increasing accumulation by institutional investors.
Some investors think they can jump in early and get ahead of the curve. Or they might grab shares long after the stock has broken out of its base.
A stock's ratings will often embolden them to take these risks. They might peruse the IBD 100 one day and find a stock with 90 or better marks for Earnings Per Share and Relative Price Strength Ratings. If the stock has strong ratings and is considered a leading stock, doesn't that make it an automatic buy?
No. The IBD 100 and other IBD features simply show stocks that warrant more research. Use sound technical analysis, not just glancing at a list or at a stock's ratings, to make your decisions.
Every week, the IBD 100 highlights a few stocks in black boxes. Those boxes show stocks that are at or near key buy points and merit a closer look. Even then, weigh all the evidence before making a buy.
Remember to always check the state of the broad stock market as well. Three out of four growth stocks will usually follow the market's direction.
Energy drink maker Hansen Natural (NASDAQ:HANS - News) was a long-time member of the IBD 100 list. Investors who bought the stock when it was forming early-stage bases pocketed phenomenal returns.
By the spring of 2006, Hansen's fundamentals and ratings were sky-high. But the stock had already formed a late-stage base (point 1), which is usually more prone to failure.
After reaching a record high (point 2), Hansen reversed lower in heavy trade (point 3). This was followed by several downward reversals (point 4. A major gap-down sent Hansen below its 200-day moving average 5).
By the time the stock ran into resistance (point 6) at its 200-day, it had plunged 50% from its peak. As noted on the chart above, the stock's fundamentals and other ratings continued to look good, even as the stock tanked.
Existential psychotherapists point out that people experience fear and anxiety when they think about, and regret, their past mistakes, or when they worry about an uncertain future. The antidote: Experience the moment. Focus on the process of living in the here-and-now. Seasoned traders describe a similar experience when they enter "the zone." There's a point where a trader isn't worried about past mistakes or future profits. All one's attention and energy are focused on the current trade. When they are in this optimal mental state, they achieve a higher level of existence. They are more in touch with their instincts. They see the markets and their trades more clearly, and are intensely aware of their feelings, sensibilities, and judgments. They can review a multitude of details, and can effortlessly identify the key factors that are likely to drive market action. Moving into this higher level of awareness during a trade can greatly increase one's chances of success. It's useful to learn how to move into this peak performance state.
How does one live in the moment? Perhaps the first step is just intellectually considering the existentialists' proposition that anxiety is sometimes a matter of focusing on, and mulling over, the past, or worrying about the future. When you consider it, it seems reasonable to think that if one could just forget about the past and avoid thinking about the future, one will live in the present. It seems unrealistic and perhaps a little reckless, however, since it is often prudent to both learn from past mistakes and to make sure you avoid potential adverse events. But again, when you do so, it takes you out of the moment. You start to analyze and remove yourself from the ongoing experience rather than enjoying it. In contrast, trying to stay in the moment will keep you focused on the trade. And by focusing all your energy on the trade of the moment, you will reach that higher level of awareness where you'll see the market more clearly and be able to run through all possibilities at lightening speed.
These concepts sound good in theory, but how does one put these ideas into practice? Well, first it may all depend on how many past conflicts you have in the back of your mind and your self-esteem. If you are unsure of your abilities, it's hard not to worry about the future, especially when you are facing extreme pressure in the midst of a trade. If you are easily shaken by uncertainty and stress, your mind will tend to wander toward your past mistakes and regrets and you'll tend to question your ability to control your destiny. But, if on the other hand, you are especially confident, you are not likely to be troubled by your past, and can more easily live in the moment. That said, it may be extremely difficult for some people to live in the moment for very long, or to stay there and completely cast aside all past regrets or worries about the future. One can strive to reach this state of existence for a short time, however, at least long enough to evaluate a trade and take decisive action. The first step is to monitor one's thoughts and identify instances where one is mulling over the past. The second step is to actively try to push such thoughts out of one's awareness. For example, one may think, "I wish I didn't lose so much money on my last trade," or "I'm frustrated that I've had so many losing trades." One may think these thoughts throughout the day and it's difficult to just shut them out. But it is definitely possible to put them aside for about an hour, while you monitor a trade and decide what action to take next. One may similarly worry about the future: "I wonder if I will keep losing or will I finally make huge gains?" After one is aware of the kinds of thoughts that indicate one is mulling over the past or worrying about the future, such thoughts can be pushed aside temporarily. It may be necessary to yell "stop" or think, "Don't think about that right now; I can consider these issues later, after I'm done evaluating my trade." Now, using these strategies won't put you in that ideal mental state where you are completely in the moment, but it will help you get to a mental state that is close to the ideal. It may take some practice, but you can eventually reach this mental state (and if you have some difficulty, always consider the possibility of seeking out some professional help from a trading coach).
The best traders are not self-conscious about their mistakes. They don't regret past mistakes or worry about the future. They live in the moment. You can also live in the moment, if you practice cultivating the proper mindset. When you reach this peak level of experience, you'll not only be more profitable, you will enjoy trading, and find it to be fulfilling in its own right.
PEARL HARBOR, Hawaii - This will be their last visit to this watery grave to share stories, exchange smiles, find peace and salute their fallen friends. This, they say, will be their final farewell. ADVERTISEMENT
With their number quickly dwindling, survivors of Pearl Harbor will gather Thursday one last time to honor those killed by the Japanese 65 years ago, and to mark a day that lives in infamy.
"This will be one to remember," said Mal Middlesworth, president of the Pearl Harbor Survivors Association. "It's going to be something that we'll cherish forever."
The survivors have met here every five years for four decades, but they're now in their 80s or 90s and are not counting on a 70th reunion. They have made every effort to report for one final roll call.
"We're like the dodo bird. We're almost extinct," said Middlesworth, now an 83-year-old retiree from Upland, Calif., but then — on Dec. 7, 1941 — an 18-year-old Marine on the USS San Francisco.
Nearly 500 survivors from across the nation were expected to make the trip to Hawaii, bringing with them 1,300 family members, numerous wheelchairs and too many haunting memories.
Memories of a shocking, two-hour aerial raid that destroyed or heavily damaged 21 ships and 320 aircraft, that killed 2,390 people and wounded 1,178 others, that plunged the United States into World War II and set in motion the events that led to atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
"I suspect not many people have thought about this, but we're witnessing history," said Daniel Martinez, chief historian at the USS Arizona Memorial. "We are seeing the passing of a generation."
___
The attack may have occurred 65 years ago, but survivors say they can still hear the explosions, smell the burning flesh, taste the sea water and hear the cries.
"The younger ones were crying, 'Mom! Mom! Mom!'" said Edward Chun, who witnessed the attack from the Ten-Ten dock, just a couple hundred yards away from Battleship Row.
Chun, 83, had just begun his workday as a civilian pipe fitter when he was thrust into assisting in everything from spraying water on the ships to aiding casualties.
"From the time the first bomb dropped and for the next 15 minutes, it was complete chaos," he said. "Nobody knew what was going on. Everybody was running around like a chicken with their head cut off."
Chun saw the Oklahoma and West Virginia torpedoed by Japanese aircraft. He heard the tapping of sailors trapped in the hulls of sunken ships. He escaped death when Ten-Ten was strafed, leaving behind dead and wounded.
"How I never got hit, I don't know," said Chun, who was later drafted and served in the Korean and Vietnam wars. "I'll tell you a secret: When your number comes up, you're going to go. Well, every morning I get up, I change my number."
Everett Hyland doesn't know how he stayed alive when almost everyone around him didn't. He was radioman aboard the Pennsylvania, which was in Dry Dock No. 1, and was helping transport ammunition to the anti-aircraft gun when a bomb exploded.
Badly burned, Hyland regained consciousness 18 days later, on Christmas night. During that time, his older brother visited.
"The only way he knew it was me was the tag on my toe," Hyland said. "He (later) told me we looked like roast turkeys lined up."
Today, scar tissue covers most of his arms and legs.
"I got a quick facial out of it. I used to be a freckled-faced kid," he said. "I don't have any lips. They could fix faces, but they couldn't build any lips."
And he was lucky.
Many of the dead were teenage sailors and Marines away from home for the first time. They died before they had an opportunity to get married, have children, build lives.
Four in five servicemen on the USS Arizona — 1,177 in all — did not survive the day. It was the greatest loss of life of any ship in U.S. naval history. They remain entombed in the battleship's sunken hull, which still seeps oil every few seconds, leaving a colorful sheen on the harbor water.
The survivors say they have more than horrific memories to offer. "Remember Pearl Harbor" is just the first half of the association's motto; the rest is "Keep America alert."
Martinez said many Pearl Harbor survivors were disheartened by the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, "as if they had not done their job hard enough."
Once again, it seemed that America had been caught sleeping. Interest in Pearl Harbor and its aging survivors surged. The old soldiers are much in demand — to sign autographs, walk in parades, speak to classrooms and pose for pictures. Visits to the USS Arizona Memorial are at record levels.
Not that everyone sees similarities between the two attacks. "There is no comparison," Hyland said. "That was terrorists killing a pile of civilians. Here, you had professional fighters versus professional fighters. Two different things."
There are those who are unable to forgive the Japanese, But others testify to the power of reconciliation.
"There are some guys that are going to die with hate in their heart. I don't have in me any hatred in my heart," said 87-year-old survivor Lee Soucy, of Plainview, Texas. "They were doing their job just like we were."
Hyland, who was almost killed in the attack, married a woman from Japan. They met at the 50th Pearl Harbor anniversary and wed the following year.
"I got over it a long time ago," he said.
___
Former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw, who dubbed Americans who came of age during the Great Depression and World War II "the greatest generation," agreed to be keynote speaker for Thursday's ceremony. A moment of silence at 7:55 a.m. was to mark the time when the attack began.
Martinez, the USS Arizona historian, likened it to another reunion 68 years ago — the final gathering of Civil War veterans in Gettysburg, Pa., when aging warriors in blue and gray shook hands and shared war stories. In 1938, as in 2006, the nation faced an uncertain future in a world gripped by conflict.
"The passing of that generation had its moment and we're going to have ours," he said.
But some veterans don't believe, or refuse to accept, that this will be the last major gathering.
"They claimed the 60th was going to be the last one. Now they have the 65th. When they have the 70th, then they'll be claiming, 'This will be the last one,'" Hyland said. "They've been crying wolf too many times."
Hyland does accept the fact that their numbers are falling fast.
"We all have our turn and our turn is getting closer," he said.
But until then, they are drawn to Pearl Harbor, and to each other. Military historian Douglas Smith, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R.I., says they are proud of their service and eager to return "to their glory days," but most of all they revel in the bonds they formed long ago, when they were young.
The bond is so strong that some ask to have their ashes interred inside the Arizona, laid to rest with shipmates who were not so fortunate as to survive Dec. 7, 1941.
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Article Title: "Iran's Threat Grows " Author: Section: Issues & Insights Date: 12/6/2006 Mideast: With each passing day, the Iranians' game becomes clearer - intimidate Europe, buy off Russia and China, isolate the U.S. diplomatically and go about becoming a nuclear power. Will they get away with it?
Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on Tuesday warned Europe against interfering with its plans to become a nuclear power. The warning was timely, coming just days before a U.N.-sponsored meeting in Paris to discuss Iran's nuclear program.
"I'm telling you in plain language that from now on, if you try, whether in your propaganda or at international organizations, to take steps against the rights of the Iranian nation, the Iranian nation will consider it an act of hostility."
The message is clear: Either Europe stands aside to let Iran develop a bomb or Iran will get medieval on Europe. That's something that Iran, which is run by medievalist mullahs, understands.
Unless Europe sides with the U.S. on this, Iran is about to become a nuclear power. As Ahmadinejad said, Iran is in the "final phase" of achieving the "nuclear peak." The threat couldn't be clearer.
And yet, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - U.S., Britain, France, China and Russia - still haven't imposed even the mildest sanctions on Iran after the country failed to halt its uranium enrichment activities by a U.N.-imposed Aug. 31 deadline.
The big obstacle, so far, has been Russia. "Our Western partners wanted to impose broad sanctions," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted Tuesday. "We believe that to impose these kinds of sanctions is irresponsible."
Oh, yes, those "Western partners." Be clear about one thing: Russia's real partner is Iran, not the West. Russia has billions of loans out to the mullahs. It has more billions in contracts to build Iran's nuclear plants, like the Bushehr facility due to switch on next year.
Russia is also selling Iran anti-aircraft missiles, with which Iran will someday be able to shoot down American and possibly even European planes - assuming Europe hasn't gone out of business by then. Russia has already chosen sides.
As for China, it has inked numerous oil and gas deals with Iran. It badly needs energy to fuel its near 10% GDP growth, and it won't let a little thing like Iran's nuclear weapons get in the way.
With the West in diplomatic disarray, Iran is stirring up trouble among its neighbors. It holds sway over Iraq's Shiite-dominated government, and backs many militias that terrorize Iraq's cities.
Iran's aid for Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and the West Bank continues apace. Just four months after Israel's brutal fight with Hezbollah guerrillas ended in a cease-fire, Iran is again sending rockets back to southern Lebanon. It wants another war.
Despite all this, the U.S. is unlikely to attack Iran. Outside of one political party in the U.S., the will just isn't there. We're not helpless, however. We can push back. Here's how:
We can start with more Voice of America-style broadcasts in Iran. The anger among Iran's people is explosive, since just 51% of the population is Persian. The Azeris, Kurds, Arabs and other ethnicities that make up the rest of the population have lots of grievances.
We can also support opposition groups inside Iran - groups that may someday topple the mullahs. Similarly, the CIA should forge ties with democratically minded people on the fringes of power - in government, in the Majlis, in the military - who might someday replace the mullahs.
Nor should military action be ruled out. While it's true we're unlikely to invade Iran, given our current commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, that doesn't mean we can't bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. And if we really want to twist Iran's arm, we could threaten to cut off the 4 million barrels of oil a day it sells to the rest of the world. Iran uses oil to blackmail other countries all the time. Why not turn the tables?
Article Title: "Talk To Our Foes? " Author: Section: Issues & Insights Date: 12/4/2006 Iraq: With a blue-ribbon panel's recommendations due any day, the U.S. appears to be edging closer to talking to Iran about our getting out of Iraq. We've been down this road before, so we ought to know better.
Enlightened souls such as Jimmy Carter and Colin Powell, who think it's a good idea to consult with Iran and Syria on our disengagement from Iraq, call themselves "realists." Likewise, they've relabeled the conflict - which is really part of a world war over the future of our civilization - a "civil war." They're wrong on both counts.
Rather than realistic, they're deluded if they think that talking to your enemies is preferable to opposing them, either diplomatically or militarily. You'd think they'd have learned that by now.
In 1938, Britain's Neville Chamberlain talked with Adolf Hitler and came away believing "peace in our time" was at hand.
What he really did was appease a murderer, who went on to satisfy his nation's desire for lebensraum in Europe by annexing Austria, carving up Czechoslovakia, raping Poland and murdering millions of Jews and other "undesirables."
He gave us fair warning. Hitler quite clearly enunciated his plans for Europe, including ridding Germany and Europe of Jews. Gosh, he even wrote a book about it. If only we had listened.
Our experience in Vietnam was similar. After the Paris Peace Talks ended in 1973, President Nixon trumpeted "peace with honor." Sound familiar? North Vietnam's communists were going to peacefully reunite the country, hold free and fair elections, repatriate U.S. prisoners and return the remains of dead U.S. soldiers.
But they were communists, and none of their promises was kept. Instead, the reconquest of South Vietnam by the North led to mass slaughter and imprisonment. Millions perished.
In neighboring Cambodia, America's exit emboldened the Khmer Rouge to go on a killing spree of its own - a binge that in sheer scope, ruthlessness and cold-blooded insanity stands as one of the great crimes of the 20th century.
This is what we got from "talking to the enemy" in the past. And each time, it came courtesy of our friends the "realists." Today, Iran poses as big a threat as Hitler or North Vietnam.
As ABC News noted last week, our military now has proof - in the form of captured weapons and munitions freshly made in Iran - that Iran has been aiding the terrorists in Iraq.
Iran's support for other terrorists - including al-Qaida, Hamas and Hezbollah - has likewise been proved beyond any doubt. Iran is also building a nuclear weapon - a goal, according to U.S. military estimates, that might be realized in only a couple of years.
Realists and others who scoffed at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's awkward "letter to America" last week might want to reconsider. Such entreaties to the infidel to turn from "injustice" and get right with Allah are regarded by fundamentalist Muslims as fair warning of an impending attack.
Ahmadinejad & Co. no doubt think they have us on the run. And why not? They've been offered all kinds of incentives to end their nuclear weapons program, and they've just laughed in our faces. The U.N. won't act, and Europe fears its own Muslim citizens.
That, as usual, leaves the U.S., where a newly elected Congress plans a parade of hearings on American defense and intelligence "failures," even as the war goes on.
As such, Iran will see the proposal by the Iran Study Group to talk for what it is - a sign of weakness. And after reading headlines like this in the New York Times - "15 Brigades Would Gradually Stand Down Under Plan" - Iran might be right.
On Wednesday, ISG co-Chairmen James Baker and Lee Hamilton - like Carter and Powell, both are Mideast "realists" - will formally release their report on what to do in Iraq.
From everything we've seen, it will amount to little more than cut-and-run lite. President Bush, however, has signaled he won't walk away from Iraq. Let's hope he means it.
Article Title: "Talk And Run " Author: Section: Issues & Insights Date: 12/7/2006 Iraq: After the months-long wait for the Baker commission's final report, its Washington luminaries delivered a huge anticlimax. Their recommendation is pathetic: a pullout dressed in fancy language.
In the long, patchy history of high-level Washington commissions, there may never have been so much buildup for so little substance. The Iraq Study Group's call for "a change in the primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq that will enable the United States to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly" is simply retreat by another name. Taking such advice would be to risk losing the war there - with enormous consequences.
America is engaged in a global war on terror against religious fanatics who cannot be talked into changing their minds, and so retreat in Iraq would be viewed as a victory for the Islamofascists. Al-Qaida and its confreres would immediately become more emboldened, and terrorist threats would move to new areas of the world.
Yet the ISG thinks all we have to do is talk, talk, and talk again with the states that support international terrorism the most:
"The United States should immediately launch a new diplomatic offensive to build an international consensus for stability in Iraq and the region," the Baker panel recommends. But for the Islamofascists in Iran and Syria, "stability" equals slavery.
"This diplomatic effort should include every country that has an interest in avoiding a chaotic Iraq, including all of Iraq's neighbors," says the report. The naivete is staggering: Tehran and Damascus' interests could not be more divergent from those expressed at the ballot box by the Iraqi people, or from American interests.
"Iraq's neighbors and key states in and outside the region should form a support group to reinforce security and national reconciliation within Iraq, neither of which Iraq can achieve on its own."
The assumption here is that the rulers of Iran and Syria are rational, reasonable men - a fatal error akin to Neville Chamberlain's belief that Hitler could be talked into peace.
Nowhere do we hear from the ISG any inkling of how exactly it could be possible to sit down and change the behavior of someone such as Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - who has said he wants Israel wiped off the map, believes Nazi genocide is a myth, and hopes for an Islamic apocalypse that he might make come sooner with nuclear weapons.
Instead, the Baker group serves up a Texas-sized helping of wishful thinking: "The United States has disincentives and incentives available. Iran should stem the flow of arms and training to Iraq, respect Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and use its influence over Iraqi Shia groups to encourage national reconciliation."
Indeed it should. But going hat-in-hand and asking madman Mahmoud, "Oh, please help us!" will not lead to such pipe dreams becoming reality.
The truth is that this commission was fundamentally flawed from the beginning:
The ISG is woefully lacking in military expertise. Sandra Day O'Connor? Vernon Jordan? It would have made more sense to send a team of retired military brass to Iraq and ask it to come back with the answer to one question: How do we make sure we win this war?
The commission was trapped in its status as a bipartisan panel: The equal number of Democrats and Republicans - with the built-in constraint that all members must agree on its conclusions - meant that realistic proposals for winning, such as a substantial increase in troops, were automatic nonstarters. From the outset, the language of the ISG's Democratic co-chairman, Lee Hamilton, was defeatist regarding military options.
What the U.S. needs at this crucial time is a plan to win - in Iraq, and in the global war on terror of which Iraq is the central battlefront. That means:
Revised military tactics in Iraq, and a large increase in troops. Maybe 20,000. Maybe as many as 50,000.
Israel may have to step forward and take out Tehran's nuclear capability, rather than endlessly waiting for the United Nations to slap Iran's wrist with sanctions in a feeble attempt to prevent it from building nukes. This would change the tide in favor of the free world.
Imagine Ronald Reagan's reaction had someone dared to hand him a report in regard to the Soviet Union similar to what the ISG has just produced. The Gipper described his Cold War strategy in the simplest and noblest of terms: "We win, they lose."
Imagine the temper tantrum Winston Churchill would have thrown if an adviser recommended "talk" as a strategy against Germany and Italy. Churchill wrote of the war's early years that "the stroke of catastrophe and the spur of peril were needed to call forth the dormant might of the British nation."
Does America have to experience another 9/11 before we treat this as a real war in which the only option is victory? Because if we lose in Iraq, make no mistake: We'll be fighting in London, in Paris, and eventually New York, Washington and Los Angeles.
Even Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi's choice for chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, has let it be known he is diametrically opposed to the ISG's conclusions. He wants 20,000 to 30,000 new U.S. troops sent to smash the terrorist militias there.
"There are those that say they don't care what Iraq looks like once we leave there. Let's just leave there," Reyes told Newsweek this week. "And I argue against that. I don't think that's responsible. And I think it plays right into the hands of Syria and Iran."
We absolutely cannot lose the war in Iraq. Those who are being realistic, Republicans and Democrats alike, all know it. The idea of the strongest nation in the world, both economically and militarily, being pushed around by dictators and radical terrorists is ridiculous - and dangerous.
This is a time for the kind of courage America has always shown in the face of great challenges - and a time for leadership from our leaders. What the Iraq Study Group has given is the furthest thing from courage: a plan for America to lose a war gracefully.
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
Male
Logged
