Do you know about my severe sports gambling problem? LOL. It may take a few years to get my life in order to be represented. Plus I changed the name of my firm recently and have not done the correct paperwork to be listed.
Russia: What great hopes the world had 17 years ago, when the Berlin Wall came down, that Russia would emerge from its long, Soviet-imposed slumber. Given recent events, maybe that optimism was premature.
A spate of mysterious deaths, of which the poisoning of former spy Alexander Litvinenko is only the latest, raises troubling questions about Russia's commitment to openness and democracy under ex-spy chief Vladimir Putin.
Putin has gone out of his way recently to thumb his nose at the West. Perhaps he's irked at what he sees as U.S. and European meddling in Russia's affairs (especially in neighboring Georgia). Or maybe he's just exercising Russia's new clout as an energy power.
But Litvinenko's death Thursday in London from what a British doctor termed "a large quantity of alpha radiation from polonium-210" is a sinister reminder that, in Russia, old ways die hard.
Litvinenko was a high-profile critic of Putin's government. Did Putin have him silenced? It sure looks that way, though Russia denies it. And Litvinenko himself — who lay in a London hospital for three weeks as he died a slow, painful death — directly blamed Putin in a posthumous letter for his gruesome demise. "You (Putin) have shown yourself to be as barbaric and ruthless as your most hostile critics claim," Litvinenko wrote.
An isolated, tragic accident? Or part of a pattern?
Recall that Russia's spy agency also was implicated in the poisoning of Ukraine's Viktor Yuschenko, apparently in hopes of bringing his liberalizing Orange Revolution to an end.
And how about the murders in recent years of prominent Russian media critics such as Paul Klebnikov, Anna Politkovskaya, Valeri Ivanov and Larisa Yudina? Or the closure of major TV networks and newspapers, such as Novye Izvestiya, that were critical of the Putin regime?
While we're at it, how about the show trials of "oligarchs" such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Vladimir Gusinsky and Boris Berezovsky, who after the USSR's fall became immensely wealthy?
Some may have been guilty of crimes. But the enthusiastic prosecution of these men no doubt had at least as much to do with the threat they posed — both Khodorkovsky and Berezovsky were political foes — as with law and order.
What also concerns us is that this apparent crackdown and intimidation of domestic critics coincides with a tough new Russian diplomacy that seems to take an increasingly anti-American tone. Call it neo-Sovietism.
Just last week, Russia announced it had begun sending Tor-M1 air defense rockets to Iran as part of a deal that will eventually send 29 of the systems to Tehran. Meanwhile, the head of Russia's nuclear agency will visit Iran in December to, as one wire report noted, "discuss economic co-operation between the two countries."
The timing can hardly be coincidental. Just the previous weekend, President Bush met with Putin in Hanoi, where they discussed Iran, Iraq, North Korea and Georgia. So silencing a key critic while sending rockets to Iran speaks volumes.
We'd like to think Putin and the Russian spy agency he once headed had nothing to do with the critics' deaths, and that Russia has no ill intent in arming Iran and supplying it with nuclear know-how.
But during the Cold War, we learned there's nearly no bottom to Russian paranoia. That didn't just disappear along with the Berlin Wall. Based on recent developments, those who think it's inevitable that Russia will become a functioning, Western-oriented democracy based on the rule of law may be wrong. Very wrong.
everyone should sign up (its free) at http://www.innerworth.com and get an email on trading psychology everyday(the contributors are top-notch)....below are today and yesterday's email as example: (yesterday's email is awesome)
TODAY: Confident, Persistent, and Profitable
Are traders naturally born? Can anyone learn to trade? What is the ideal psychological profile of the winning trader? At Innerworth, we have tried to find answers to these questions, but definitive answers are often elusive. We keep trying, though. We've surveyed traders and interviewed them. And we have tried to analyze interviews from Jack Schwager's classic "Market Wizards." Our conclusion: There doesn't seem to be one way to trade or one ideal trader personality. Consider Michael Marcus who was interviewed in "Market Wizards." Rather than taking a calm, unemotional approach to trading, he often seemed to fall prey to his emotions. He made large impulsive trades and lost. He sometimes let his emotions get to him to the point that he tried to use medications to gain control. His early experiences didn't permanently trip him up. He learned from his mistakes. His persistence won out, and he eventually learned to make a fortune.
Jack Schwager described Mr. Marcus as "aloof, almost withdrawn." This may be a useful personality characteristic for trading the markets. Aloof and withdrawn people tend to be focused. They may have difficulty dealing with people, but they are also likely to approach the markets with a single-minded passion to succeed. Mr. Marcus is also highly intelligent. He earned membership to Phi Beta Kappa at the prestigious Johns Hopkins University and won a scholarship to attend Clark University for graduate school. This early academic success clearly gave Mr. Marcus rock solid confidence that carried over into the trading realm. When asked, "Did the thought ever enter your mind that trading was not for you?" Mr. Marcus replied, "No. I had always done well in school, so I figured it was just a question of getting the knack of it." In our Innerworth studies of traders, we have found that regardless of whether it is succeeding in sports, academics, or business, the people who develop unwavering self-confidence as a result of these early experiences are the people who persist, hone their skills, and master the markets. Mr. Marcus strongly believed in his ability to achieve financial success. But his success didn't come easy. He admitted, "I lost. It was the same old cycle of borrowing money and losing it." Despite making loss after loss, Mr. Marcus persisted until he was able to achieve profitability. At times, he lost over five times his yearly salary, but he kept trading until he gained a wealth of experience to trade the markets profitably.
The markets are difficult to master. Many try but few make it. Mr. Marcus' "Market Wizard" interview reveals what it takes to succeed. A winning trader has confidence in his or her ability to succeed. Winning is never guaranteed and may take the stamina of a marathon runner. It is necessary to face setback after setback. You may get beaten down at times and feel like giving up. Your emotions may go up and down with your account balance. But in the end, you must believe in your abilities, and that if you put in enough hard work, you will achieve the success you have been seeking.
YESTERDAY All In Perspective
As a novice trader, Jack has just put on his tenth trade. He's still new to trading, but he is optimistic that he will be successful. He wants to succeed. He thinks, "I want to prove that I'm a good trader. I hope I do well on this trade. The outcome is critical to the rest of my trading career."
Jack's thoughts and feelings are understandable. Whenever we start a major endeavor - starting college, a new job, or whatever - we want to succeed. And it's nice to have early success. The first few moments of a major life turning point seem especially significant. When we aren't successful immediately, the initial letdown often haunts us for a long time, interrupting our train of thought, and shaking our self-confidence. Despite the reasonable hope of an early triumph, however, it's vital to keep the proper perspective when approaching trading: one must always think of the big picture, the long run.
Any single trade is of little importance. Experienced traders know this fact, and live by it as if it were doctrine. Even though they may focus all their energy on the current trade, they know it is of little real significance in the long run. It is wise to put each trade in proper perspective. It is essential that you consider, at least in the back of your mind, that a single trade is just one among a series of trades, and that the bottom line is the overall outcome across the series, not any single outcome.
There are psychological advantages to taking this perspective. When you downplay the outcome of any single trade, it is less critical to your ego. When viewed as just one in a long line of trades, it's easier to tell yourself, "It doesn't matter. There will be many more trades and opportunities to come." If there isn't much riding on the outcome of a trade, it will free up precious psychological energy. You won't waste your limited psychological resources needlessly worrying about the outcome. You will feel free and creative, ready for whatever happens next. All your attention will be focused on trading your plan, objectively analyzing how market moves fit into your plan, and taking decisive action for a clean exit.
Putting a trade in proper perspective is not only psychological, however; it also involves proper risk management. To survive the learning curve, or a severe drawdown, you must limit your risk on any single trade. By limiting your stake to a small percentage of your trading capital, the trade will have minimal financial significance. In reality, it will be of little consequence compared to your overall account balance. Merely believing that a trade is insignificant doesn't work very well unless in reality it is not significant. For example, it's hard to fool yourself into thinking that a trade is insignificant if you have a month's salary on the line on a single trade, and you can't afford to lose it. The stress will be unbearable. It's important for your psychological and financial security that you limit the risk on any single trade. Again, think in terms of the big picture. You don't need to make money on a single trade; the overall results across a series of trades are all that really matter.
When starting a new endeavor, it's natural to want to do well on every single attempt. All of one's hopes and dreams may be placed on a few key trades, for example. But trading is much too difficult to think you can quickly make a few trades and be set for life, with all your aspirations met. The successful trader is in the game for the long haul. The trading lore is replete with stories of traders who made huge profits only to lose it all later. You may see some big trades in your career, which will provide numerous war stories that you can use to entertain your friends for hours, but when going into a trade, it's vital to keep the trade in proper perspective. It's still just one trade of the many you will make in your career.
i read about this site.....i think it is one of the greatest ideas in a long time......check it out. (there is an article on it in Money magazine this month...its created by founder of eloan.com)......essentially its like being your own banker
So has anyone here used it? I read all the info, and it looks pretty safe. I noticed many people with AA credit ratings were getting loans for the purpose of loaning to other, lower credit scored prosper users.
quick overview on short selling the Oneil method (i love seeing the chart from 2000. wish i was a smarter investor back in 2000 and could have captured the down moves
Loss and Hope - Janice Dorn Pain is what you walk through. Misery is what you sit in.
Take an old pair of jeans and cut a hole in one of the front pockets. Now, start pouring sand into that pocket. What happens? Sand runs down your leg and to the ground. What do you do? Keep pouring until the sand is up to your ankles? Your knees? Your waist?
At what point do you realize and act on the fact that no matter how much or how fast you pour sand into the empty pocket, you have a hole in your pocket? At what point do you come to the conclusion that you either have to stop pouring sand or just take off the pants and run away as fast as you can?
There are many who will keep pouring until, eventually, they are up to their neck in sand. Suddenly, it begins to feel like quicksand and they are trapped - they can't get out no matter what they do. It is now too late since there is just too much sand all over them and they are trapped. Then the feeling changes to one of being drawn downward into the quicksand, unable to breathe, choking and suffocating into the murky slime all around.
This is how it feels to lose. The hole in your pocket is the losing position. The sand is your mental, emotional, physical and spiritual energy just pouring out until you are drained, have nothing left to give and are literally sinking in the sand of your own creation.
I spoke with a trader yesterday who told me that the instant a position went against him, he cut it and moved on. I spoke with another trader yesterday who told me he was down nearly 50 of his entire portfolio on two positions which he had been holding for nearly five months and that he could not cut it because it was too late, too much money lost and he was trapped. Perhaps you can identify with one of these traders, and perhaps not. Most certainly, if you have been trading for any period of time and you have not employed a rigorous stop loss discipline, you have felt your physical and psychic energy going into a losing position.
The trader who cuts his position immediately is out the commission and the (usually very small) drawdown. The trader who is holding a 50% portfolio loss does something that is quite common and damaging. The trades almost immediately went against him, but he did not get out. He stayed with them, holding and hoping, and turned two losing trades into "long term" investments! The mind has a unique way of playing such tricks on us. Since he could not take the losses or honor stops, he played every manner of brain game with himself and decided that the positions would "come back one day" and entered onto the slippery slope of hope. If a portfolio is down 50% what percent does one need to gain in order to recover back to break even?
How does loss of psychological and physical capital with focus on a losing position manifest itself? Irritability, sleeplessness, continual searching for something or someone to affirm the losing position, anxiety and dysphoria, tick-itis (the toxic habit of watching every tick of the position day after day), rumination, self-deception, impairment of social and family activities and a litany of other unpleasant emotional and physical states. Perhaps the worst aspect of this is the spiritual deterioration which is manifest by self deception and, often, deception of family and friends. One is rarely capable of owning true feelings of guilt, shame and inadequacy and shifts into a mind morph where a trade becomes an investment. Holding and hoping then set in.
Of the panoplies of emotions that flood traders and investors on a daily basis, the most risky is hope. It becomes a passionate hope that, once the Market Mistress has seduced us, she will, one day, become kind to us and love us.
The most rigorously honest thing that I can say in response to this type of thinking is: Abandon hope. As extreme as this may sound, it is the only way to be consistently successful. Attachment to a losing position is a recipe for more unhappiness and illness than any one of you deserves. Eschew complacency and mediocrity in trading and life. Cut losers quickly and do not sit around waiting for The Mistress to rescue you.
Who can say what is waiting for you at the bottom of the slippery slope of hope? Get your head out of the sand and get out before it is too late. Suffering is optional and you are in control. Take the power and use it to make yourself strong and to live and breathe with freedom to play another day.
The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds... Will Durant ( American Historian and Philosopher...1185-1981)
Until next time, Good Trading and Brain On! Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D. is a Financial Neurobehaviorist. Dr. Dorn holds a Ph.D in Brain Anatomy. She is also a licensed M.D., Board Certified in General Psychiatry and Addiction Psychiatry by The American Board Of Psychiatry and Neurology. Additionally, she is certified by The American Society Of Addiction Medicine. She is a graduate of Coach University and a member of numerous professional societies, including The International Society of Psychoneuroendocrinology and The Society For Neuroscience. Dr. Dorn is a competitive aerobics dancer, a futurist and an authority on Longevity and Wellness.
For the past 10 years, Dr. Dorn has been a full time futures trader and trading coach. She trades her own accounts, focusing on gold, silver and copper futures.
She is the author of over 300 published papers on Trading Neuropsychology, Behavioral Neurofinance, Mass Psychology and Holistic Wellness as applied to the financial markets. She has coached over 600 traders world-wide. She is a sought-after media personality, public speaker and author. Her website is: http://www.thetradingdoctor.com
Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss. - - Jesse Livermore The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. - - Jesse Livermore
ps- if u ever have a minute look thru CXO site, they have excellent info(some of it a little too theory junk but i like skimming the site ocassionally)
interesting though that with weak dollar everyone talks about fed needing to hold/raise rates but they dont mention that weak dollar is good for sales of US products since they become cheaper to foreign buyers........pretty interesting how much conflicting thoughts/data there is with that the fed will do, hopefully is keeps creating a wall of worry
see article below from Mark Cook(i've heard about him before as respected trader). bio/website at: http://www.markdcook.com/ (this guy charges $400/mo for 2updates a day.....just remember that when Josh starts charging a nominal amount compared to most investment services)
DISCLAIMER- I DONT KNOW WHAT HIS PAST TRACK RECORD IS LIKE BUT this was released Nov 1st, 2006, i guess we will see who is right, but this goes to show you how many "professionals" missed this fall rally and doubted the market, and another person overthinking the market. ........instead you could not try to predict and just follow the trend like IBD/Josh says and if we have a selloff then it only takes 1 day to close your positions and go on vacation.....i am guilty of listening to the noise over the years but it takes personal experience to learn what works and doesnt, and predicting DOESNT work, but price/volume(O'neil method of tracking #of accum/distrib days and follow thru days) works. i still like reading opinions but its doesn influence me anymore since i've seen that most are irrelavant in the mkts
Out Of Control Markets
There hasn't been a more opportune time since December 1999 to write a specific piece of information on out-of-control markets.
Personally, I have experienced four episodes of the out-of-control mentality in my 30 year trading career. They are 1987, which resulted in the infamous crash. March of 1998, which resulted in a capitulation climax of the Long Term Capital debacle. The third was the millennium crisis and we all now know how that trap door sprung.
The fourth is now! I want to go on record that this has the same look and feel. Complacency is a cement pillar. My Cook Cumulative Tick is at the highest overbought in almost SEVEN years. The prices of many indices are diverging from normal correlations. An example being the Dow Industrials at all time highs while the NASDAQ is far from previous highs.
A parallel that has me most attuned is the fact of a tight correlation between now and 1987. That correlation is that a new Federal Reserve chief, a chap named Alan Greenspan was the oarsman navigating the economy ship to a new all-time Dow high hit in August of 1987. Less than two months later a big OOPS! That oops was attributed to a new Fed chief of less than one year's tenure creating the break. Hmmm! 2006 has a new Fed chief, a chap named Ben Bernanke as a new oarsman with a glass bottom boat (for transparency) navigating the economy ship to a new all-time high in the Dow Industrials. Is an oops coming?
The period spanning the August 1987 peak was almost 800 trading days without a 10% Dow Industrials correction. The result was a 36% correction or blood letting. The 2006 current tenure is over 900 trading days without a 10% correction. Well, if 1987 was -36% at 800 days and we currently exceed that by over 100 days, shouldn't prudent rational investors be a tad nervous? Don't worry, we all know that a Fed ship with a glass bottom for transparency will see the rocks coming before it sinks the ship. Forgive me but I think an unsinkable ship thought that also: The TITANIC.
You can just call me Lone Bear Cook but I think Noah built a ship that didn't have a transparent floor. Think about it!
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