This is where you can ask me questions about the shorts I have taken.

Shorts you the reader would like me to analyze.

KNOT

I would like your thoughts on NUE, AKS, and IPS, all steel stocks.  Thanks

why wasnt FCL a short ? trying to see why you didnt flag it. only thing i see why it wasnt was there was big volume down day breaking support in 7/20 (and the couple big volume down days i see showed big reversals to the upside looking at the long tails which isnt good to see for shorts) so the day to go short was 7/21

FCL wasn't a short because it NEVER showed up on any scan. Day one to be a short was on  June 5. Too bad there was no volume with that move so i missed it. Besides that there was never another signal. There was never a heavy volume failure at the 50 dma.

doenst look like HMY ready to rollover yet...closing above 50dma on low volume..

RS & GG please?  

Sorry, Josh, one more.   After today's action, WIRE.  Thanks,

what an exhaustion gap...look out below!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am still short HMY. I am not covering yet. This chart is done. If it rallies on higher volume I will get out but the last three days saw each day's volume get lower and lower. If someone went short based on my HMY recommendation YOU should be out. I still don't like the chart and don't see a good reason to cover. One more up day and I will admit defeat.

WIRE: not yet. Hasn't even cracked yet. Maybe later on. But still too early. Especially with a short-term uptrending market with a sub-intermediate uptrend in the SP 500.

NUE, IPS, AKS: They just don't seem ready yet, after the closes today. Still not the right time.

RS: Already short. Still looks good.

GG: I would wait for the breakdown. The chart is setting up nicely it just isnt time yet. Wait for it to crack on heavy volume to keep the risk/reward in your favor.

KNOT: because of the volatility, I would want to get that as close to the 50 dma as possible. I skipped it on 7/20 only because after getting whipped out of so many nice shorts I did not want that one to hurt me.

$XAU:$GOLD ratio looks break upwards, MACD looks bulish as well.  Care may be warranted.  Look at gdx, gg, glg, doesn't look like gold stocks want to go down

Thanx!!

You are very welcome.

BFAM cover short. Breakdown failed

KEX was passed do to the gap down

RJF watching closely to see how it closes. If it closes above the 50 sma I will cover.

Josh,

I was looking at GSF on a weekly chart on the volume pattern look exactly like O'Neill describes it in his book - heavy down volume, weak up volume.    It seems to keep failing at its 50 day MA.    Where would you look to short this?   Just on any breakdown, or wait till it gets above the 50 one more time?

Also curious about TLM - similar pattern, reversed today on earnings, but volume isn't that big.    Is this worth a shot or not?

Finally, PETS - it's bounced about 20% from its lows, and each up day has had progressively lower volume as it approached the 50 day MA.    Is this a case of being too late, because it's has fallen so much, or worth a shot?  

Thanks - just trying to improve my chart diagnosis skills.  

GSF: I would short it right here. If it doesn't breakdown here, cut your loss. But the constant drift down puts this stock in a position that if it breaks down you will have to pass as it would probably be a bit too volatitle to take a new position.

TLM: Another chart that is really not giving you a proper signal. It hasn't the entire downtrend. I can see nowhere where I would have shorted it. But if there is a time to short it it would be now. 50 below 200 starting to trend down and yet another failure at the 50 dma.

PETS: Way too late.

I like TLM and GSF though. Both are good shorts but both don't have the volume that says "oh yeah this is falling." So they are shorts w/ a great risk/reward ratio. But chances of getting stopped out are higher without volume.

But heck stocks like BFAM fail so why not give a shot at these.

Great eye, mac!!!!

KNOT...my wife had us all signed up for this site when we were getting married...

Trying to get above its 50dma...doesn't look like it will make it.

You happy couples out there make me sick. You should all be miserable like me.

j/k.

KNOT still ugly chart. It could be shorted right here with a tight cut loss.

How in the heck did I miss some of these restaurant shorts. At least I have TXRH.

Look at stocks like PFCB and CAKE. Study those charts for your next victims. What did those charts have on them before they broke? Just something to help you study.

i dont pay attention to XAU:GOLD ratio,etc....becasue then i start adding more stuff and talk myself out of trades when i look outside of basic price/volume...i would have covered my HMY end of day today if it closed above 50dma following thru yesterday weak volume rally but obviously everything broke down so i didnt....and remain short....NEM is off after mkt today after earnings so doesnt like group is rallying tomorrow and now i will probably short NEM tomorrow after today's above avg reversal below moving avg. (i didnt play it after last fri b/c wanted to see it fail at 50/200dma 1 more time).....anyone see RACK after mkt today, ouch.

Everything coming together among different sectors now at least from today's tape.

transportation is down
basic material is down
even gold stock is down
now the last straw is oil ( I do see the negative divergence in oils in long term charts even though we have a rally )

what is more horrible is that even utilty is down today, retails were selling off hard, these are recent safe haven ( look at shld, jcp, ann ).  One thing puzzling me is why regional bank still holds ( ibca, flag, an inverted yield curve, how they make money ), so does other safehaven like gaming ( dde is also coming into short list of Josh, look at lvs ), health ( fve, mgln are bear hanging there )

What this inter-market picture tell us, we are in trouble, caused by global liquidty tight.  

Too many rate hikes ALWAYS kills a bullish tape.

This time is no differnet.

FED always goes too far.

AGP looks even more attractive short after today....failed at 50dma 6 out of the last 8days, with yesterday and today huge volume...and no hard support on the downside for a while

I'm looking at OXPS as a short here - just above the 50 day but below the 200 day, but I think there is a lot of overhead resistance at $26 from the neckline of the H&S Pattern it formed from February to June.     Could be a good risk-reward short with a stop right above the 200 day MA.   Any thoughts?

Does OXPS look like a beautiful short here or is it just me??

If I was not short it already, I would short it off of today's action.

OXPS: this would be the best time to short it before a breakdown. Your risk/reward ratio is excellent.

YeAaAA~!!!  

I will be short 90 stocks after tomorrow morning.

Ugly market. This will be the most shorts I have ever had at one time. That should tell you something about the market. Not in good shape.

Back in the summer of 2005 (the last time I was shorting) the most I had was around 30. There were simply too many nice long candidates then. And those long charts were doing better than the longs are doing in this environment. Another classic poker tell.

In my tonight scan, I have 16 long, 122 short.  Amazing 16 !

Josh, 90 short positions are a lot, what is the lots you are playing, 50 shares each, or in some kind of equal amount dollar value.  How do you deal with short squeeze as it can happen so quickly ?  In O'Neil, he usually tracks a dozen with big position.  Could you comment on which approach is better ?  

50-200 shares. It is easy for me because this is all I do all day and the more I take the better I do since I have such a high win/loss ratio.

and i have such a difficult time picking the right one out of the 30 I see. So instead of picking the wrong one like i normally do. I take them all.

PFCB and CAKE both gapped down from their 50 day ma.

ebay actaully did the same back in april but i didn't pull the trigger for some stupid reason.

Another interesting facts that sector broke down in April one month before the market. And the selling wasn't done on one particular day to the whole sector. Each stock in the Restaurant sector that brokedown then did it on a different day.

Back in April I wasn't even looking for shorts the trend in the market was still up. Back then we didn't know the market was going to top. Only on May 11 did I realize that the markets were being sold the entire way up all year long. That along with looking at the commodity stock bubble pop was all I needed to know we were done in May.

But in April...looking for shorts was the wrong game.

DRIV already making this morning difficult!

and it looks like I am two days too late with RACK. Remember when I brought it up as a "great short" two days ago. It had a strong close so I passed. Yesterday looked like the day. It was!!! Too bad all the excitement happened after-hours. How often does this happen? Too often.

big banks will be volatile shorts with ylds moving all around with Fed coming up.....C moving wrong way on me, fortunately i own WFC long to offset it

This market is f*ck*ng crazy. Keep cash heavy. It isn't worth it shorting or going long. There is NO clear play when the market rallies 100 points after EVERY chart breaksdown.

This is the most confusing day I have seen, based on pure technicals, all year long.

What a crazy insane nutty week. Disgusting. Can not wait to get this over.

maybe that is why broker dealers are up today because so many people trading in and out of stuff with the whipsaw action, generates record commissions kidding