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MauiTrader
Friday, August 11, 2006, 7:42:42pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from ORKiter
GROW, really? pretty late in the game for that stock isnt it when looking at weekly ? seems week to me, especially with the anemic up volume the last 3 weeks ? i guess i would be more excited if volume was huge(like a million shares+) today since it doesnt take much for this stocks(only 300k shares ) to be above avg volume but guess we will see


What you just said I said earlier. That is why I have to really study it and see if the whole group is moving or if this is just a fakeout breakout. Like you said and I said earlier it is seems late in the game for GROW.

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huajian_us
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 11:24:13am Report to Moderator
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My scan shows me 9 long ( the smallest one I can remember so far, they are ahr, bap, k, kss, n, rkt, rsys, sbib, tck, wibc ), the short shrinks as well from 35 to 24.  
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Market Speculator
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 12:01:18pm Report to Moderator
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moving towards uncertainity to the direction in the market.  We are looking at a flat to down market in the coming months.  Just wait to all the political crap that starts to pop up!!!


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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MauiTrader
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 12:24:03pm Report to Moderator
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My "price/volume" scan, which is my primary scan, only had a total of 48 stocks on the list at the close on Friday. That number is the lowest of the year, except on the Fourth of July. That was the only day I had less.  The other scan that deals with stocks that trade 50k to 100k had 22. That is low too but I have seen three or four days with lower number.

I haven't posted the chart yet, because I ran 20 miles yesterday and have been sleeping for over 12 hours now, but ISYS is breaking out of a double bottom with handle pattern so I will take it on Monday.

OMG, Market, somehow I keep forgeting (maybe I am trying to really hard) that this is an election year. Can't wait for the commercials (saying that with a gun to my head)!
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Market Speculator
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 1:08:54pm Report to Moderator
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Can't forget those...you'll see some negative things come out of the elections.  The Dems will try to knock everything about this economy!


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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MauiTrader
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 2:34:00pm Report to Moderator
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McGovern politics will only last two years.

WWIII can't be ignored. We are in it. JFK and Truman would never back the politics of Lamont. You will see this November, when Lieberman is elected as an Independant over the two Dem/Rep challengers. The Rep. is too weak to even count but Lamont will lose in this race with all voters voting.
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Market Speculator
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 2:47:24pm Report to Moderator
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CT race will be interesting!


Success is a State of Mind - - Tommy Bahama
Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking their first small loss.  - -  Jesse Livermore
The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.  - -  Jesse Livermore
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huajian_us
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 7:06:07pm Report to Moderator
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Josh, what is your 1R (initial $ loss per trade ), what is your loss you allow for a position.  Do you link position size (no of shares ) with loss per trade ?  
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MauiTrader
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 7:29:25pm Report to Moderator
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Yes, obviously smaller stocks, cheap stocks, and more volatile stocks will have wider cut losses so less shares are risked.

You can clearly see on all my charts that my risk is between 3%-10% always as I always use the 50 dma to cut my losses.
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MauiTrader
Saturday, August 12, 2006, 10:13:00pm Report to Moderator
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Can you read this?



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huajian_us
Sunday, August 13, 2006, 1:20:45am Report to Moderator
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This week's IBDs

ABAX ADM ALJ AMX ARD ATRS BOOM BOT BRG BRLI BWP CACB CCJ CELG CLB CME CMI COG CSH CTCM CTSH CXW DAKT DK DRIV DRQ EGN EMCI ETP EZPW FIZ FMD FORM FSBK FSTR FTI FTO GDI GG GILD GLG GOL GRMN GYMB HITT HOC IAAC IBCA ICE ICLR IIIN IMKTA IMO ISE ISYS JLL KNOT LIFC LMS MED MIGP MRO MWIV NBL NEU NGPS NITE NVEC NXY OFLX OKE ORA PBR PNFP PPDI PRXL PVA PWE RRC SAFT SAIA SMTB STLD SU SYKE TCK TNL TNP TRMB TSO TTI TWGP TXU VIP VLO VOL WCC WCG WNR XTO
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huajian_us
Sunday, August 13, 2006, 12:38:29pm Report to Moderator
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Ed ( the guy who trades in Lake Tahoe )  has per position loss, say %1.  Then he uses that $risk to work out share size by dividing volitiliy of the share.  This allows you to control the position risk well.  For each R you risk, if you get 10R for one trade and 3R for another trade, then even you get 8 trades wrong, you will get 13R - 8R = 5R.  Not bad, you risk one R and gain 5R,  500% return.  This does mean that it is probably not wise to parial out position as it rises.  If you sell 10R by half when it reaches 5R, then if you sell another half at 7R, then finally you sell the rest at 10R.  So finally for this 10R position, you only have 6.75R (0.5*5+0.25*7+0.25*10).  So for overall position it is 6.75R + 3R - 8R = 0.75R, it is ok return 75%.  But it not 500%.  Looks it is better to move stop all the way to the break even point to get the full 10R to milk the big run.  Of course, I assume, the stop loss is strictly 1R.  But if we set mental stop, there is some R slippage, a -1R position become -2R, or even -4R like CGX.  So if we don't want sliperage in R, we need cold stop, not matter how slliy it is as it pay in long run to the overall portfolio.
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MauiTrader
Monday, August 14, 2006, 1:23:20pm Report to Moderator
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CGX: A great example of why it is important to cut losses if your shorts don't work. Now the stock is breaking out of a short high tight flag pattern after breaking out from its odd shaped double bottom pattern. This is the ONLY stock of interest so far in my scans on the long side.
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ORKiter
Monday, August 14, 2006, 1:45:06pm Report to Moderator
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are you saying you would buy CGX up here ?
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MauiTrader
Monday, August 14, 2006, 1:52:56pm Report to Moderator
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I don't know. Yes, I would. But I dont know if I would buy it right now. If the ..................................I just looked again. Absolutely I would. High priced stock. The base was short and very TIGHT. This move is on volume. It seems demand is completely outstripping ANY supply.

Damn straight I would....LOL....Just to prove it, if it closes well I might poke 50 shares.

Another chart I am in love with but waiting for the breakout is STEC. I am not in love with CGX but it is nice.



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