josh how far back to you go for prior trends on a stock ? because what about the prior downtrend on MFA ? it has to make a 100% move to get back to prior high ?

One year to two years. yes, you are correct and that is why I only expect a 25-50% gain on this stock. In bear markets you take profits quicker. I don't think it will have an easy time going back to all-time highs. I just really like the intermediate charts and I know to go long these. If it doesn't work I only have a 5% risk. 5-1 to 10-1 odds for risk reward. I will take it.

MFA has tons of supports.  Can we think that MFA resets its base after such big down turn, like rebirth

I wonder when Hans was first time showed up in IBD ?  

Josh, what the longest time you ever rid a position up and down, followed the selling rule, I notice that most of stock has 7-12 month cycle, of course, there is some exceptions, this is a normal distribution.

on MFA weekly the volume is huge in the base for end of 2005 and early 2006 ? isnt it better for have the higher volume on the right side of the advance vs. the base ? and right side of advance on weekly volume seems all over the place(although there are some big up volume weeks............am i totally off ?

huajian, didn't you read all the post yesterday. I posted when HANS was first mentioned.

MFA reset its base count? from what? It just came from a HUGE downtrend. There are no bases. This is the first one.

The longest I usually hold is 12 months. The longes recent hold was BOOM. The final sale came after holding it for 15 months.

Are you kidding me. Look at the candles in the weekly. Every week is being supported. Every selloff is being bought. Look at this chart. Of course it is better to have higher volume on the right side than the left. But all that volume came at the END of the downtrend not the beginning. IT IS SUPPORT. Look at the weekly action since then. You are not that off but yes you are a bit off. If that volume was at the top of the left side and then there was no climatic volume on the bottom I would worry but for now the weekly has shaped up and all I see is support. Also dont you see that green BOP on the price and volume breakout today? This is a very nice chart considering the downtrend it came from. How often am I wrong? Just freaking joking. LOL.

On daily, this is first chart I had a feeling, even machine gun cannot break it, like tighted nitted fishing net or fence.  Even a neddle cannot drop through, watch the left hand side in the past 4 month, the only thing I am not too happy is that daily range is too wide.  There is some resistance on 7.3, but I can see it will move to 7.75.

All I cannot remembered yesterday is Tori Praver from Maui.  Just kidding.
I wonder how we can catch this kind move while it is still in infant.  MA still doesn't show up in IBD, I wonder when it will eventually show up.  It may be another HANS in next two year, 10 folds its market cap, may be just wishful thinking.    

MFA? Hell no it wont be the next HANS! Like I just said I am looking for 25%-50%. Please read all post.

THis is not the kind of market to be looking for the next HANS. They show up AFTER the bull starts NOT before.

This chart could fail easily. This is not even that great of a chart. It is just a pretty chart.

Just look at all the "new swing longs" post that nobody seems to really pay enough attention to. There are a lot of stocks with prettier charts in there than this one. This is just one of the prettiest today. Did you see ZILG or AVNC? They are nice too. If I didn't show MFA today and instead showed ZILG would we be saying the same thing?

These are all questions that need to be asked to help you become a better trader.

Does O'Neil always pick break out of all time high ?  Didn't recall he has an example of break out from a bottom base in his book ?

52 week highs.

In that case,  we should just ignore these bottom fishers: MFA, ZILG or AVNC as they are still so many 52week high there and also they are so much resistence these bottom fisher to get over.

May be another strategy is to have both high flies ( 52 weeks, CanSlim ) and bottom fishers ( mean reversion player ), so one is value play and the other is growth play.  This mixed portfolio may well out perform during the bear market recover phase.  Any thought ?

correct sir!

I trade all breakout from very green pretty chart patterns. They have to be very sound and form a proper base. I put more stock in ones from larger uptrends. When they come from larger downtrends you play more catious.

Calling one value or growth is up to you. It is a good idea. I prefer speculative and proper.

Hey Josh, thanks for DJO, caught a double on the option spread.  I shorted some common against my long calls after buying back the sept 40's to leave it open to a further upside move.  How would you like it to act from here short term?

keep going up or make a quick base then go up again. It needs to keep moving up in the short term for the next base to look proper.

geez, i didnt mean to start a huge topic on MFA(it definitely aint a HANS potential mover - its a frickin REIT invests in CMO's) it just looked kind of funky to me on weekly so i wanted to ask some questions about the chart.......josh, you might scare off people from asking question from you strong responses personally i dont give a crap what your response is but some might be a little intimidated from being called out on a dumb questions (but i know you will just respond to this with "Tokyo Joe,etc......all talk like this so get some balls,etc........"