All-Time, Six Year, And Five Year Highs For The Indexes. Stocks did it again, making it three days of gains in a row. After a slow start to the day, stocks drifted, until positive comments from the St. Louis Fed head Poole sent stocks higher for the rest of the session. Overall, it can only be called a bullish session, as the DJIA hit all-time highs, the SP 500 hit six year highs, and the Nasdaq hit five year highs.
At the close, the SP 600 led the way with a 1.5% gain, the Nasdaq rallied 1%, the DJIA gained .7%, and the SP 500 managed a .6% gain. The big winners were Semiconductor and leading stocks. The Philly SOX index scored a 2.8% gain and the IBD 100 rallied 1.7%, leading the overall market.
Volume was much higher on both exchanges, after the previous two days of lower trade. Breadth was also positive on both exchanges by over a 2-to-1 margin.
There were tons of economic data today. You have already seen all the numbers, so I will spare you the bore of repeating it. Besides, to be honest, the numbers don't mean mess to the market, anyways.
That news is already priced in. How many times do I have to say NEWS COMES AFTER PRICE. Unless it is earnings--thanks Reg FD--the news is already known by the big boys. They have already traded off the information before you ever see or hear it. Get over yourself and stop thinking you have inside info. Once you get over that, you will be one huge step ahead of all the other amateur "wannabe" speculators.
The SP 600 is 1% away from all-time highs and my account is under 3% away from all-time highs. I might be lagging the SP since the rally started in July but over the past three years and the past month I have outperformed the market to quite a large amount. This should be obvious to anyone who has consistently read this blog.
Why is any of this important? Because it is apparent that growth/momentum stocks are back in flavor, for the time being. If it keeps up like this I will soon be well ahead of the market as I am positioned in TONS of great looking stocks that have great chart patterns.
If you have not been involved in the gains of this market, do not worry. Do not chase stocks just because you missed the move. Make sure stocks are breaking out of sound bases on strong volume. If you can not find any of these stocks, you need to refine your scans. If you still think it is too late and you are mad at yourself for missing this move. Don't blame anyone but yourself. Learn from your mistakes and the next time this scenario happens you will not miss it.
If you, instead, decide to listen to all the talking idiots who report and do not trade for a living, you will soon be joining the rest of the 98% of traders who do not make it.
I would love to see a consolidation or a pullback here as I get slightly nervous about markets that never pullback for more than a couple of percentage points. These kind of markets have a history of ending quite volatile and suddenly. I prefer a nice steady uptrend that goes in a stairstep fashion. Those markets tend to end a bit more rational and give plenty of clues before the breakdown.
However, a market that keeps on rising with me fully long is nothing to be upset with either. In fact, it is a confirmation of all the bullish charts I kept getting the whole uptrend from July where people were telling me it was going to rollover left and right. How are you bears doing now?
We will see what the FOMC minutes bring us tomorrow. I will see you at Investors Paradise. Stay positive and aloha!
New Swing Longs: UCTT COH BEZ BOT VCLK GSIC CNST BDG--A RMKR EHTH
Where Are The Bears? Besides a slight intraday blip off the FOMC minutes, it was another day of gains for the indexes, for the fourth day in a row. The SP 600 is just a few points away from hitting all-time highs and the rest of the indexes keep hitting five year, six year, and all-time highs. Nothing has changed, since Thursday, when it comes to this market.
At the close the DJIA rallied .3%, the SP 500 rallied .2%, the Nasdaq gained .5%, and the SP 600 led with a .8% gain. The IBD 100 and 85-85 index rallied .6%, keeping ahead of the three major exchanges. The biggest winners on the day came from the Airline stocks. The AMEX Airline index rallied 5.2% and the IBD Transport-Airlines index rallied 4%.
Volume was higher on the Nasdaq, marking another accumulation day. On the NYSE, volume came in a tad lower than the day before. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
Inflation remained at the forefront of the Fed's discussion. The minutes from the Oct. 24 Fed meeting said, "nearly all FOMC members viewed the current rates of core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation." The minutes also said the Fed was less worried that the slowdown in the housing market would lead the economy into recession.
However, all of this is just noise to me and I am putting absolutely ZERO weight on this when it comes to making my trading decisions. Traders can dissect and discuss this piece of news till they are blue in the face but there is no way that this is going to make you a better trader and help you make money in the market. There is only one way I know how to do that. Studying price and volume action of stocks and the major indexes.
Tomorrow's BS story of the day is the CPI and Philly Fedx Index. Traders will blame the market's movement on these two stories but these stories will only serve as the effect of the big boys prior executions before the news is released. Once again, these numbers, are good for the CNBC douche-bags to talk about but they will NEVER make a professional speculator consistent money. It is best to ignore all this BS data. The liberal slanted media is going to spin it negatively anyways.
Less than 15% of IBD's 197 industry groups were lower. Many highly rated stocks reached 52-week highs or broke out past buy points. In earlier rallies this year, such rapid increases were much scarcer among noncommodity growth stocks. Another difference? Many current leaders are of better quality, with higher capitalizations and liquidity. (this is from IBD's "the big picture")
IBD is saying the same thing in this paragraph that I have been saying for a while now. I am starting to have a LOT of stocks zoom out of their breakouts and rack up some nice sized gains rather quickly. None are becoming raging 100% gainers in two weeks but many are making 20-30% gains in a month or so now. If you look below, you will see that I have a ton of stocks up over 25% now. Most of these are buys within the past three months. So if you know how to do math, you can figure out the annual gain on the stocks.
The market is still very bullish and more and more traders are getting bullish on this rally. The II Survey in IBD today shows that bears are getting extremely low and bulls are getting quite frothy. Even I am starting to get worried about how strong this rally is. We really need a pullback to help setup some HOT HOT HOT charts. Until then I will continue to play this momentum. However, I would love to mix this short term momentum with some nice long term chart patterns so we could get some long-term momentum. Stocks breaking out of bases longer than five days are better than stocks breaking out of three-day bases. Three day base breakouts have a much higher failure rate. I like nice long flat and green bases. Those are the best.
I will not be holding my breath for a pullback but it wouldn't surprise me if we come upon one soon enough. I am so long right now and have some good gains that I don't think a 3-5% pullback in the market would create too much damage.
I am super sleepy and am cutting this short. Have a great day and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: ACTU INPC EROC EXLS ESPD GCOM RENT
Stock Indexes Make It Five In A Row; Gains Come In Slightly Lower Volume. The general stock market indexes made it five in a row on Thursday. The news that helped spur this rally could have been the 4% drop in oil, the tame retail-inflation data, or the rebound in manufacturing activity. No matter what the real reason was the only thing we need to know is that stocks advanced again but this time did it on lower volume. A pullback should be expected soon. Don't let it take you by surprise.
At the close, the DJIA rallied .4%, the SP 500 rose .2%, the Nasdaq rallied .3%, and the SP 600 decided to go the other direction with a .3% loss. Leading stocks also lost ground as the IBD 100 fell .2%.
Volume was just a tad lower today on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Breadth was positive on the NYSE with winners beating decliners by a 6-to-5 margin and on the Nasdaq advancers pretty much match decliners.
This advance has been very strong but it might be losing some momentum as small cap and leading stocks fell. The SP 600 has been leading recently and with it showing a loss today and the other indexes rallying we might be seeing the first signs of a short term top trying to create itself. However, this is all speculation and trying to guess what the market is going to do has NEVER made me money. The trend is still up and that is all I need to know.
The one thing that I can not help but to comment on is oil. Oil fell 4% today. I can only assume it was because GWB and his chronies are dropping the price so they can win the mid-term elections. Oh! Wait. They are over. And oil is dropping? But what about the far-left's conspiracy theory? I guess supply and demand is really all that matters, after all. Or maybe the Democrats are lowering oil so more people will join their party now that they have control of Congress. Is that a UFO flying over my building?
Back to the market. Nothing has changed since the rally started five days ago. Leading stocks and stocks in my portfolio are doing much better than at the beginning of the rally. My protfolio has outperformed the market by quite a decent amount during the past five days. The other deciding factor in showing how powerful this rally has been is the fact that the past four days I have only had to dump four stocks. That along with the twenty plus I have taken has to be one of the highest ratios of new buys to complete sells I have seen since 2003.
Until the market actually shows us the top, it is stupid to try to predict where this run will end. It is indeed getting very frothy up here but nobody says that more foam can not pour out of this cup. I don't have that much to add. The status quo the past five days has been working and continues to until it does not.
Until we actually get a pullback, stay the course. If you have been left behind on this rally, you need to review your decision and see what caused you to miss it. If it is because you listened or watched too much TV then maybe you should turn all the bullshit on CNBC off.
Do you realize I NEVER watch CNBC. I prefer ESPN, ESPN2, FoxSports, Comedy Central, MTV, MTV2, or a DVD. So take that as you want. While you get paralyzed from all the BS commentary on CNBC, I will be laughing my arse off at the next Stephen Colbert skit.
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: SKX SPRT KO
Adding To Holdings: PTT
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): AOB-80 CPA-43 AKAM-208 DKS-34 PSPT-35 INWK-53 IMKTA-26 CXW-38 IHS-86 RMTR-45 FCSE-38 SOFO-68 STEC-38 TTEC-55 ALTH-71 BRLC-83 REGN-43 MIKR IGLD UAUA INAP TRT IAAC PCBK UCTT JST NSTC LMT SEIC ACGL BOT TSRA BEBE APLX CELG FFH MVSN COH DUCK AHS HMSY EXLS EVR EVEP CVLT TRBN AWH ICFI SAI ALXN QD AXTI AOI AMAG NHP ANAD NU SCI ETR NWL INPC MRB AYE RENT PSMT ACP RIV PTT SUAI
Stocks On Watchlist: MAXY SFP PRGX TWTI DWA ELOY FSI
Stocks End Friday Mixed But All Indexes Rally Off Intraday Lows. A weak housing report showing a 14.6% fall in housing starts helped send stocks lower to start the day, but as the day wore on stocks worked their way higher finishing well off the lows of the day. The DJIA and the SP 500 finished higher, making it six days in a row. The Nasdaq finally had a downtick and ended a five session win streak.
At the close, the DJIA gained .3%, the SP 500 rallied .1%, the Nasdaq fell .1%, and the SP 600 fell .3%. Leading stocks finished the day positive, with the IBD 100 up .1%. The other important piece of data is that the Nasdaq closed at its high of the day. This shows you the strength of this market. The Nasdaq falls yet can't stay down.
Volume came in much lower on the Nasdaq and the NYSE as traders, once again, took another early leave for a long weekend. The lower volume on the Nasdaq's pullback is a good thing to see in a bullish market. Gains on higher volume during an uptrend and losses on lower volume is just what you want to see in a strong market.
Even with the gains on the DJIA, breadth was negative with decliners beating advancers by a 6-to-5 margin. The breadth on the Nasdaq had losers beating winners by a 3-to-2 margin.
For the week the Nasdaq rallied an impressive 2.3%, the SP 600 rallied 2.1%, the DJIA rallied 1.9%, and the SP 500 rallied 1.5%. All of the major indexes hit all-time highs or five year plus highs. The SP 600 almost hit all-time highs. It was but a mere 2 points away. I am not sure what the heck you can find bearish in that.
The good from the week has to be the pure strength of the rally. Leading stocks, big caps, small caps, and my stocks are all acting extremely well and producing good gains. The rally has been very broad with the most obvious of the strength being in the amount of new highs. As IBD pointed out in "the Big Picture" column, on Wednesday, the Nasdaq had 290 new highs. That was the highest amount during the uptrend. On Thursday, there were a total of 194 new highs compared to 15 new lows, and on Friday it was 291 new highs to 46 new lows, on both exchanges. This shows that this rally is very broad and involves many stocks in many diverse sectors.
The best sector move with the most exciting stocks in them is the sector I brought up a month ago which nobody was talking about. Medical-Biotech; it has gone from 141 to #10 on the IBD Industry Group list for price performance the past three months. This sector is offering tons of stocks that are producing large gains very quickly. Also seeing the move in Airlines, Computer Networking, Chemicals-Fertilizers, Media-Periodicals, Internet-Network Solutions, and Computer Software-Enterprise show the pure broadth strength of this rally.
The other good news has to be in oil. Since its peak in July, it is down 30%. This coincides nicely with the rally we have had off of the June lows. It is hard to not see how this has to be somewhat, psychologically, correlated.
The bad news is that the market is heading toward maximum overbought on many different oscillators (Arms, 10 dma overb/overs, and McClellan). However, like I keep saying over and over, momentum is a hard beast to tame once it is let loose. The market can run to the upside and the downside faster and for longer than you think it can.
Until this market rolls over, continue to play the upside and let the bears keep making fools of themselves. They will get it right, one day. Until then, they will continue to constantly lose money. Then when they get it right they will tell you, "I told you so." Nice, moron, too bad you lost 29% before you made 25%. This is how most short sellers do it. Trust me, I have NEVER met a successful pessimist who ONLY shorts the market for a living. They may be out there but I have seen and made way more money on the long side to ever want to live that pathetic life.
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise. Have a great weekend.
New Swing Longs: FMCN ADL
Adding To Holdings: PTT OME
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): JST-45 ICE-32 SVNT-69 HRZ-65 CPA-46 PRFT-27 SEIC-25 PSPT-36 INWK-53 TYL-51 AKAM-208 AMAG-38 ALTH-77 AUXL-63 IMA-25 BAM-50 HRT NSTC FFH IGLD PCCC AOI ISE ACTU LNET ACGL SUAI CELG TRT INAP RJET BMC HCSG AHS MSTR DUCK VCLK WEL EVR EVEP ULTR CVLT ICFI CBF AWH MRB INPC ISIS SFL WSH GSL TSG ALXN CCO NU KO PNW PTT PRCP OME GENT GMTC ZILG RMKR
Stocks On Watchlist: ATNI BIIB INDH AVT MAMA TKLC TWTI DWA MEDX XIDE KAR HSIC PMID BUF LXU
Stock Indexes End Mixed, After A Late Afternoon Reversal. A plethora of mergers and acquisitions couldn't stop the market from hitting a small bump in the road. This small bump took the SP 500 and the DJIA off of their intraday highs helping them close in the red. This ended both indexes six day winning streak. The Nasdaq, led by the Semi group, hit new five year highs.
At the close, the Nasdaq led the way with a .3% gain, the SP 600 followed with a .25% gain, the SP 500 went the other way and finished down .05%, and the DJIA did the same with a .2% loss. The IBD leading indexes led the market today with a .4% gain, showing that even with some selling leading stocks are holding up well.
Volume was lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The good news about the lower volume is that the big indexes fell with the lower volume. This is what you like to see when a market pulls back a little. Even though this really isn't a pullback.
Breadth was basically even with advancers barely over decliners on both indexes.
Techs, leading stocks, and small caps held up well which is very positive considering the bears started a very short but nasty selloff. Things could have gotten much worse considering the overbought nature the markets are currently in.
The other good news about today's market was that the SOX gained 1.8%, the DJ REIT index gained 3%, and we are in the midst of a bunch of mergers and acquisitions signaling that this market is very strong and companies see value out there.
The bad news is the same thing I mentioned last week. The market feels very overbought here but that is in no way a reason to get bearish and start shorting the market. That is emotional trading. That kind of trading has never been the way the great masters in the market made millions. They use sound proven rules; not feelings.
Even though the market seems to be losing some steam on a very short term basis, taking a longer term bearish take is just not smart or advised here with so many of my current holdings showing few signs of wanting to give up.
It is going to be a slow week. Remember, the market is closed on Thursday and Friday is a half-session with markets closing at 1PM EST. Don't try to look too much into the action this week. It is sure to be choppy few days but as usual during a holiday shortened week it will historically be a bullish week. So don't expect a "crash" this week.
Have a great day and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: CMG LQDT OEH BUF GVP
Adding To Current Holdings: GCOM
New Swing Shorts: NONE
**NUMBER BELOW IS % STOCK IS UP SINCE LONG TAKEN (only 25% or higher listed)**
Markets Are Still In The Giving Mood, Ahead Of Thanksgiving. A very narrow intraday session closed with stocks barely changed. There was no news to move this market that appears to have already started the Thanksgiving holiday.
At the close, the DJIA added .04%. the Nasdaq gained .09%, the SP 500 gained .16%, and the SP 600 rallied .37%. The obvious great news came from leading stocks; the IBD 85-85 Index rallied 1.1% and the IBD 100 rallied .7%. This shows that leading stocks continue to outperform, even in a dull tape.
Volume was basically flat with yesterday's totals. Volume was 1% higher on the NYSE and 1% lower on the Nasdaq. Breadth was very strong for a slightly positive day for the SP 500 with advancers beating decliners on the NYSE by a 10-to-7 margin. Breadth was flat on the Nasdaq.
Precious metals were the big winners of the session. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ended the session 3.6% higher. Chip stocks were among the hardest hit, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index losing 1.1%.
Leading stocks also showed how strong this rally is by continuing to outperform the market even when the market takes a slight breather. By breather, I mean, the indexes don't go up a lot everyday on big volume. It seems like it is very hard to keep this market down. I think it is something like 91 days out of 92 without us being down more than 1%. That is pretty darn strong.
The way my current holdings are acting by constantly stair-stepping up and very few stocks offering me outright BAIL BAIL signals, it is obvious this market still has the potential for more gains.
The stocks I have been selling are stocks that are making gains with abnormal price action, climax price action, or just plain old responsible profit taking when stocks run too far too fast. The new buys keep going up or barely pullback after taking new positions so I still don't have any reason to see why I should be worried about taking too many new positions. If everything I buy is moving up, then obviously the market is telling me my operations are correct. It is until I start getting more misses than hits that I will start to throw up caution flags.
Also my current holdings will be giving me more sell signals. Not by climatic price runs but by giving off nasty sell signals that show that the big boys are distributing. When that happens, then I will take the right action. Until then, the market is still right. If you follow the trend, you can NEVER be wrong. Only your opinion will be.
I love the action in DELL, afterhours. You know what they always say. Don't short a dull tape, don't short the market before/during a holiday, and don't short a market in an uptrend. We will see how they treat the gap up. Will they sell into it? Will they buy it? Who gives a crap? Let the talking idiots on CNBC play this game. Your job is to make money. The only way to do that is to buy the right stocks at the right time and learn when to sell those stocks at the right time. Only a proven set of rules and proper money management can make you a great investor. CNBC NEVER will.
I am so very tired. Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise. New Swing Longs: SQM CMT GLDN CTDC TSEM
Adding To Current Holdings: CNH GSL
**NUMBER IS % GAIN SINCE POSITION OPENED--ONLY STOCKS UP 25% HAVE #**
Wednesday, November 22, 2006 Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy Your Long Weekend. By now everyone knows that the market played dead, once again, this week. So with the lack of action in the indexes I thought I would post a few of Thanksgiving editorials that I found very inspirational and/or informative. New longs and stocks on wathclist are listed below.
Grateful Hearts
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 11/22/2006
Thanksgiving 2007: This is the time to park discontent at the door, sit down to a feast and count one's blessings. And in the United States of America, the blessings are many. This weekend we give thanks for . . .
• The land. The Pilgrims understood. Despite their struggling start, they perceived God's hand at work in the vast, fertile continent that was their new home. They saw riches before them, and nearly four centuries later we see the same abundance and beauty today. Every journey through this land reveals its greatness to us.
• The people. Now 300 million strong, Americans are hard to sum up as a people by traditional standards of race, religion or culture. They famously come from all over, and their presence fuels arguments over the question, "Who are we, anyway?" But there can be no argument with their success at making this nation the richest, strongest, most productive and most innovative on Earth.
• The founders. A sobering lessons from Iraq is that nation-building isn't so easy, even with plenty of examples to learn from. So just think of how hard it was to achieve that feat the first time, with untested ideas and a world watching (if not rooting) for failure.
America is free not just because it fought a war for freedom, but (even more so) because it was blessed with leaders who had both the principles and practicality to come up with a Constitution that has secured that freedom for 217 years — and counting.
• Our liberty. And where would we be without Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton and all the rest? Maybe in the same condition as far too much of the human race today, living where freedom is tenuous or just a distant dream.
If history teaches us anything, it's that there's nothing inevitable about the march of freedom. It can be rolled back as readily as it advances. It requires much from the people and from their leaders — courage, self-reliance, respect for the rights of others and for the law. Americans live free today because past generations had such virtues. We thank them today, and only hope we can emulate them.
• Those who defend us. Most of our fellow Americans are doing their part to keep the country moving forward. We thank them for their work — and Americans do work, harder than folks in most other rich nations — in sustaining an economy that's the envy of the world.
But a particular group deserves special gratitude on this Thanksgiving weekend, when the nation is at war. These are the Americans who have chosen to defend their country, often at risk to their lives and at the cost of separation from their families.
It is not through sheer luck that America has been free from a significant terrorist attack for more than five years since 9/11. And it's not that our enemies have given up. People on the front lines, at home and abroad, have been fighting all that time to pursue our enemies and thwart their plans.
Thousands have given their lives. Many thousands more are separated from their families on this day of reunions. Their loved ones — with half their heart in Iraq or Afghanistan — are sacrificing greatly, too. We salute them. We thank them. We wish them hope over this holiday.
A Great and Godly Adventure: The Pilgrims and the Myth of the First Thanksgiving' By George Will Thursday, November 23, 2006
``Twas founded be th' Puritans to give thanks f'r bein' presarved fr'm th' Indyans, an' ... we keep it to give thanks we are presarved fr'm th' Puritans.''
-- Finley Peter Dunne
WASHINGTON -- But the Pilgrims who bequeathed to us Thanksgiving were not Puritans, at least as we use that term to denote busybodies bent on extirpating dissipation, meaning fun. Excessive merriment was not a pressing problem for the half of the Mayflower's 102 passengers who survived the first few months in wintry Massachusetts.
True, the Pilgrims left Holland for America in part because the Dutch had too much fun, even on Sunday, when the Pilgrims' services would last four hours, the congregation standing throughout. And two Pilgrim brothers did quarrel because one said the other was ``blinded, bewitched and besotted'' by his wife, a ``bouncing girl who wore whalebones in her breast, an excessive deal of lace and a showish hat.''
But the Pilgrims went to America, writes Godfrey Hodgson, not to become American but to remain English and devout. Rather than tarry among the licentious Dutch, they would risk life among Indians who, they had heard, flayed prisoners with scallop shells. Soon a Pilgrim was instructing Indians in the Ten Commandments, ``all of which they harkened unto with great attention, and liked well of; only the seventh commandment they excepted against, thinking there were many inconveniences in it, that a man should be tied to one woman.''
Hodgson is a British journalist and historian. His ``cmakes clear that the Pilgrims embarked on the angry north Atlantic in storm season not because they wanted to impose their strict ways on anyone, but to avoid being bothered by anyone.
It was not until the Cold War in the 1950s that American historians, seizing upon John Winthrop's sermon (``we shall be as a City upon a Hill, the eyes of all people are upon us''), suggested that the Pilgrims pioneered ``American exceptionalism'' by adopting a universal mission to cure this fallen world of corruptions. An American cold warrior, Ronald Reagan, would, 30 years later, wield that ``city upon a hill'' trope while ending the Cold War.
The first Thanksgiving feast involved a few dozen English settlers and perhaps a few hundred Native Americans who, Hodgson reports, ``protected themselves from cold, insect bites and so on with a thick layer of fat or grease. This may have made them smelly at close quarters though hardly smellier than the Europeans, who changed their clothes rarely.'' The dinner probably did not include turkey, which was rarer in Massachusetts than in England, where it had been introduced from the Mediterranean, hence its name.
This year, when one of the Transportation Security Administration's 43,000 airport security screeners (perhaps two times more numerous than were Native Americans in 1620 in what is now eastern Massachusetts) confiscated a traveler's too-large tube of toothpaste, the traveler perhaps thought: Life is hard. So it is timely for Hodgson to remind us of the admiration that is due ``as a tiny band of men and women, determined to follow what they believe to be the ordinances of their God, entrust themselves to the wild freezing ocean; confront disease, starvation, ferocious enemies and justified fear.''
Thanksgiving, Hodgson notes, is an echo of the breaking of bread at the heart of Christian worship, and of a Jewish Seder. It also is a continuation, in today's abundance, of harvest festivals around the world, which began millennia ago, when abundance was so rare as to seem miraculous. Hodgson thinks Thanksgiving expresses ``the deepest of all American national feelings'' -- gratitude. It is the inclusive gratitude ``of a nation of immigrants who have lived for the most part in peace and plenty under the rule of law as established with the consent of the governed.'' Celebrated by turning inward with family, Thanksgiving is, Hodgson thinks, a counterpoint to Americans' other great civic festival, the Fourth of July:
``It is good to celebrate the public glories and the promise of American life with fireworks and speeches, better still to celebrate the mysterious cycle of life, the parade of the generations, and the fragile miracle of plenty, in the small warm circle of family, the building brick of which all prouder towers have always been constructed.''
An Englishman (Samuel Johnson) said that people more often need to be reminded than informed. Sometimes Americans need a sympathetic foreigner, such as Hodgson, to remind them of the dignity of what they are doing, on this day, and all others.
Recounting our manifold blessings By Mark M. Alexander Wednesday, November 22, 2006
"[I]t is the indispensable duty of all men to adore the superintending providence of Almighty God ... that with one heart and one voice the good people may express the grateful feeling of their hearts and consecrate themselves to [His] service ... acknowledging with gratitude their obligations to Him for benefits received...." --Samuel Adams
What is the nature of gratitude, of true thankfulness? Acknowledgment of receiving a gift that is undeserved, then joy appropriately suffusing that knowledge, overflowing into recognition of indebtedness to the giver. In truth, we are not really giving thanks -- we give nothing -- we are only responding with properly grateful hearts that are due the Gift Giver.
A course volunteer sits while wearing a Thanksgiving turkey hat during the final round of the ADT Championships golf tournament in West Palm Beach, Florida, November 19, 2006. REUTERS/Marc Serota (UNITED STATES)
That is the spirit in which Thanksgiving was first celebrated on our shores -- and then persisted as a joining thread of our nation's character. The Pilgrims set us on the path to become a country humbly acknowledging the thanks we owe to Almighty God as Creator of life and Author of liberty.
At Thanksgiving nowadays, we're often invited to "count our blessings." Similarly, The Patriot's holiday tradition is to recount the origins of our blessings of liberty. Indeed, Thanksgiving is an indispensable part of the foundation of our nation.
The Pilgrims left Plymouth, England, on 6 September 1620, sailing for a new world that promised opportunities of religious and civil liberty. For almost three months, 102 seafarers braved harsh elements, arriving off the current-day Massachusetts coast, in November 1620. On 11 December, prior to disembarking at Plymouth Rock, the voyagers signed the Mayflower Compact , America's original document of civil government predicated on principles of self-rule. Governor William Bradford described the Mayflower Compact as "a combination ... that when they came a shore they would use their owne libertie; for none had power to command them...."
Starvation and sickness during the ensuing New England winter killed almost half their population, but through prayer and hard work, with the assistance of their Indian friends, the Pilgrims reaped a rich harvest in the summer of 1621.
The bounty, however, was short-lived. Under pressure from investors funding their colony, the Pilgrims had acceded to a violation of Christian prescriptions for honoring the laborer as "worthy of his hire," and for certifying property ownership rights for individuals and families -- acquiescing to a ruinous financial arrangement holding all fruit of their labors in common, so as to send back a quickly accounted half to their overseas backers.
Making matters worse, by the spring of 1623, Plymouth was in danger of foundering under famine, blight and drought. Governor Bradford wrote that the drought "continued from the third week in May, till about the middle of July, without any rain and with great heat for the most part, insomuch as the corn began to wither away.... [The Pilgrims] set apart a solemn day of humiliation, to seek the Lord by humble and fervent prayer, in this great distress. And He was pleased to give them a gracious and speedy answer, both to their own and the Indians' admiration that lived amongst them. ... For which mercy, in time convenient, they also set apart a day of thanksgiving."
Colonist Edward Winslow noted the Pilgrims worshiped thus: "[W]e returned glory, honor, and praise, with all thankfulness, to our good God, which dealt so graciously with us...." So, the original American Thanksgiving Day centered not on harvest feasting (as in 1621) but on gathering together for public thanksgiving for God's favor and provision.
Bradford recorded in his history of the colony that moment in which Plymouth's leaders gave up their failed communal economy in favor of the free market: "At length, after much debate of things, the Governor (with the advice of the chiefest amongst them) gave way that they should set corn every man for his own particular, and in that regard trust to themselves; in all other things to go in the general way as before. And so assigned to every family a parcel of land, according to the proportion of their number."
By the mid-17th century, the custom of autumnal Thanksgivings was established throughout New England. Observance of Thanksgiving Festivals spread to other colonies during the American Revolution, and the Continental Congresses, cognizant of the need for a warring country's continuing grateful entreaties to God, proclaimed yearly Thanksgiving Days during the Revolutionary War, from 1777 to 1783. In 1789, among the first official acts of Congress was approving a motion for proclamation of a national day of thanksgiving -- again acknowledging the importance of a day for citizens to gather together and give thanks to God for our nation's blessings.
On 3 October 1789, by way of proclamation, George Washington wrote: "It is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favour. ... I do recommend and assign [this day of public Thanksgiving], to be devoted by the people of these States to the service of that great and glorious Being who is the beneficent author of all the good that was, that is, or that will be; that we may then all unite in rendering unto Him our sincere and humble thanks for His kind care and protection of the people of this country."
It was 155 years later, at the onset of another war to preserve our liberty, that Congress permanently set November's fourth Thursday as our official national Day of Thanksgiving.
Like the Pilgrims, and many generations since, we should hold sure that whatever travails and straits we navigate, if we remain steadfast in faith and obedience, God will see us through under His care.
As Ronald Reagan noted in his 1982 Thanksgiving Proclamation, "Today we have more to be thankful for than our Pilgrim mothers and fathers who huddled on the edge of the New World that first Thanksgiving Day could ever dream of. We should be grateful not only for our blessings, but for the courage and strength of our ancestors, which enable us to enjoy the lives we do today. Let us affirm through prayers and actions our thankfulness for America's bounty and heritage."
Indeed, we should: "Enter into His gates with thanksgiving, and into His courts with praise. Be thankful to Him, and bless His name. For the LORD is good; His mercy is everlasting, and His truth endures to all generations." (Psalm 100:4-5)
This Thanksgiving, please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm's way around the world, and for their families -- especially families of those fallen Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen who have died in defense of American liberty.
On behalf of your Patriot staff and National Advisory Committee , we wish God's peace and blessings upon you and yours this Thanksgiving.
Stocks Pullback On Lower Volume, On A Post-Thanksgiving Short Session. Even though it was a post-holiday shortened session, the market still managed to offer some early morning fireworks via the US Dollar. The dollar's steep decline against foreign currencies weighed on stocks early but the obvious strength of this market was once again put on display as indexes lifted well off their lows to close with respectable losses.
At the close, the DJIA and teh SP 500 led the way to the downside with a .4% decline, the Nasdaq lost .2%, and the SP 600 lost .1%. The IBD 100 matched the Nasdaq with a .2% loss. The good news is that it did not lead with losses.
Volume was, obviously, much lower on both indexes, with it being a half session. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 8-to-7 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
Friday's move lower completed a week where the Dow fell 62 points, or 0.5%, from its all-time high. The S&P 500 gave back a fraction of a point for the week. The Nasdaq rose 14 points, or 0.6%, during the four sessions. The SP 600 was in the middle of the pack with a .4% positive return. A mixed yet calm week.
Nothing changed today that hasn't been mentioned here before. All week long it has basically been the same story: The market is very strong, my stocks are doing extremely well, and growth stocks are doing very well and are now outperforming both value stocks and the broad market. Yes, we are overbought on multiple oscillators and the VIX is producing some low numbers but nothing says we can not get more overbought and get a lower reading in the VIX. Price and volume are ALWAYS your first and last piece of information you need, when it comes to telling you when to buy and when to sell.
The only other negative I can see is something IBD hit on being the fact that a lot of laggards are making moves. That is true but I don't see a lot of those breaking out from very solid bases. It is when I start getting a lot of stocks breaking out of very green and pretty charts that I start to get worried. I am not there yet, even though IBD has hinted at it. If you were not around this blog in March and April then I guess you are not familiar with that situation yet. This also happened in Feb/March 2000 and at the end of 2003. I don't see this pattern quite yet. Is it getting close. It looks like it but until I start actually seeing sub $10 stocks breaking out everywhere I am not going to get too nervous just yet.
However, the action in stocks like PNTR, ZVUE, EFUT, and OBCI are always a reason to throw up the caution flags and take careful notice of a rally. The fact that stocks like these are making these kind of moves is obviously a warning that speculative money is getting active.
Next week things should get back to normal, with a full five days of trading returning. Black Friday will be digested, along with the Thanksgiving leftovers. Maybe traders will take off the weight by "running" stocks. Whatever happens, I don't care. I am ready for whatever Mr. Market is ready to throw my way; it can either be gains or losses, it doesn't matter.
I hope you had a festive and memorable Thanksgiving. I want to congratulate my partner in crime Chris Maye (marketspeculator) on his new baby. Your life as you know is now officially over. For the next 18 yrs. minimum everything you do now revolves around your baby....and our website. LOL. Congratulations!
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: GRC RHA
New Swing Shorts: NONE
**Number is % gain since purchase. Only stocks up 25% have a number**
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): MA-113 PTT-71 XING-27 CHINA-72 IGLD-35 DIVX-32 ICE-35 CPA-46 INWK-62 SVNT-73 FTEK-37 WGA-30 GVP CMT LQDT VCLK QDEL INAP LWAY IMA TSRA FFH MIKR APLX UAUA WTS SQM BEZ BONT VDSI BEBE AHS COH LTM DKS BMTI CVLT ULTR HOTJ AZK OME
Stocks On Watchlist: GES RKT TLF AZS SGZ XIDE GOAM
Completely Cut Your Loss/Take All Your Profits: WEL MWRK
Monday, November 27, 2006 You Wanted A Pullback? You Got It; Stocks Swoon On Heavy Trade. After weeks and weeks of gains, the stock market finally put an end to the never-ending uptrend with all indexes falling heavy across the board. The losses had commentators everywhere scrambling with reasons for the losses. Some blamed oil, some blamed soft sales at WMT. However, common sense tells us that stocks were bound to have this day sooner or later as this uptrend kept going and going and going.
At the close, the SP 600 led the way to the downside with a 2.3% swoon, the Nasdaq followed closely behind with a 2.2% thrashing, the SP 500 lost 1.4%, and the DJIA lost 1.3%. Worse news comes from leading indexes. The IBD 85-85 index fell 2.6% and the IBD 100 fell 2.7%, leading the market to the downside. The opposite of what you want to see in a pullback.
Volume was higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq by over 200%. So clearly this was a distribution day. If you do not want to compare it to Friday's shortened session, then we can compare it to last week. Pick Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday; volume was higher today than any of those days. Clearly a distribution day. That marks the third distribution day on the Nasdaq and the SP 500 in four weeks. Definitely, a time to be cautious in the market.
Breadth was horrible with decliners beating advancers on both exchanges by a 4-to-1 margin. It was not pretty.
There were a lot of wild emotions today in the market. I witnessed it in the chatrooms that I monitor and I can see it on the 15% jump in the VIX. However, most of my individual stock holdings pulled back on what appeared to be normal to somewhat above average trade. The losses were not that great in the majority of my top holdings and there doesn't appear much to be worried about yet.
In saying that, however, we have to respect that the market is still very overbought and we have been going almost straight up without a pause. So further weakness should almost be expected. I would be stunned if we did not pull back at least 5% (another 2.5% at least). Markets can not keep going up week after week forever. They have to pause and stair-step up or else you end up with days like today. Big giant one day swoons.
I have seen so many of these in my life that days like today don't even phase me. Also what I have noticed is that these big one day selloffs happen more in bull markets than they do in bear markets. Bear markets seem to start vicious (during a bull phase) then morph into a slow death. Same thing with the largest up days in the stock market. Those days normally happen during bear markets.
Why does this happen? Because in trending markets, traders can take the trends to such an extreme that the "rubber band" breaks and snaps back hard. I do not have the facts in front of me but I bet if you go looking for the top ten up days in the market you will see that most of them happend during downtrends and visa versa with the top ten down days.
So today's pullback should not have you scared out of all your bull holdings. This is normal in bull marekts. It is if we start to get a few more distribution days with a lot of leading stocks breaking down. If leading stocks and MY stocks start selling off, breaking support, and throwing up sell signals, then I know it is time to leave and the market is going to get weak.
As of now, I do not have that. The stocks I am selling or getting rid of are not the best of the best. Heck, stocks like HRZ don't even pullback (DO NOT BUY HRZ NOW; TOO EXTENDED). The good stocks are all holding up and telling me to hold on. For all we know this could be all the selling there is. We could gap up and be off to the races again tomorrow. Won't you feel silly if you sold your shares simply because emotions got the best of you.
Speaking of emotions. If you are a bull, don't act like that this is just "a normal" pullback. You should be preparing yourself for a selloff and have a plan ready in case you are wrong. Bears, don't get too cocky thinking this is the beginning of a big selloff. You should be worried about being wrong AGAIN and having stocks run hard against your positions, in case you are wrong. Now is not the time to have a married conviction to a certain direction in this market. Everyone should be on guard.
I hope you didn't get too burned by the days action. Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Speculative Longs: ECGI SWAT NRGP -- for more info on longs, go to IP.
Adding To Current Holdings: AOI
New Swing Shorts: HCBK HLTH ELP
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): HRZ-65 WGA-33 IGLD ININ SUAI SQM AOI ACGL LWAY TRBN AXTI CKSW AZK LNET PLB TSG MNG BUF GENT MALL RMKR GOT OME
Stocks On Radar Screen: DLB GMRK SVI GNLB GOAM
Completely Cut Your Losses/Take All Your Profits: EROC RSTI VDSI BEBE QDEL XING ESPD
Stocks Try To Find Support; Markets Higher In Mixed Trade. Stocks were supported a day after a nasty selloff. A very poor durable numbers report, the lowest in six years, didn't help at the start of the day. Thankfully, for the bulls, that was the worst of it. Stocks spent the rest of the day treading ground until the final hour when they made the push to close green.
At the close, the Nasdaq and SP 500 led the way with .3% gains, the SP 600 followed with .2% gains, and the DJIA ticked up .1%. It was better than more losses.
Volume was a tad higher on both the NYSE and on the Nasdaq, according to my Telechart charts. However, IBD has both the NYSE and the Nasdaq with volume a tad lower. Either way, it is counting hairs. Volume was basically flat. Not good, not bad, not easy to see what the true intention of market players were.
Breadth was positive on the NYSE with advancers beating decliners by a 5-to-3 margin and on the Nasdaq advancers and decliners were pretty much flat.
Few stocks got whacked today. So that and the small rebound is pretty good considering what yesterday brought traders. The bad news about this rebound is that lagging stocks made the best gains. This action has the feel of a market that is going to rotate some stocks around from laggards to leaders, on a short-term basis. If that is the case, the market should be making little headway from here. I hope this is not the case. If leaders start leading again to the upside, all this thought will be irrelevant.
A pullback, remember, is welcome here. It is not healthy for a market to keep rising non-stop without having any mini downtrends along the way. Pullbacks allow stocks to start consolidations. A lot of nice stocks should create some strong bases to breakout from, if this pullback is just a minor pullback in the making. So far the jury is out so it is not smart to make a bet one way or the other.
If stocks don't form good bases during this pullback, that will be my cue to be very careful and to get ready for further weakness. If the market starts selling off, because the bulls can not deliver more upside, I will start to take the proper action. This is always a possibility as bears become more bold the longer it takes for us to recover the losses.
The upcoming days are key. Further upside would really discourage the bears and leave them scrambling as momentum would obviously pick up with traders seeing that the bears can't even follow through on a big selloff.
If the bulls don't show up, however, I won't be surprised one bit. We are too extended and a pullback of 2 to 3% would seem reasonable here.
We have 3Q GDP and the Fed beige book coming up tomorrow. I hope everyone did well today. Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: CRT IWOV HOS NRF BITI AMSF
Adding To Longs: MAIL AOI OMNI
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): DIVX-46 PTT-52 SVNT-74 PSPT-32 TTEC-56 CHINA-72 IGLD-41 HRZ-68 CXW-34 DA-53 AOB-76 TRBN-29 MA-104 SOFO-62 FMCN PCCC ACP MAIL MALL RENT AOI CCO IMKTA TSRA RBN CMT DECK ISE HRT ACTU VCLK BMA IAAC SEIC SKX INAP BLUD SQM RJET BMC WTS FTEK BOT IMA LQDT GLDN MCRS MSTR SUAI LWAY LRCX AHS ICE HOTJ CBF EVEP OMNI SIGM ITC ANAD SCI INPC RWT NU PERY MRB ETR PNW AZK ASML SWAT RMR RMKR FBNW
Shorts Up On The Day: HCBK
Stocks On Watchlist: INDM MMG QI MAMA BIOM CMS DRYS ALNY DTSI XIDE SLGN GOAM JRVR
Completely Cut Your Losses/Take All Your Profits: ATCO GSTL OPSW GCOM
Leading Stocks Outperform General Market; Stocks Rise On Mixed Volume. The market started off strong and soon gave way to what appeared to be some nasty selling. However, the strength of this rally continued, with buyers bidding stocks higher, thanks to some help from the Fed beige book, into the close.
At the close, the SP 600 led the way with a 1.3% gain, the SP 500 rallied .9%, the Nasdaq followed with a .8% gain, and the DJIA was the laggard with a .7% gain. The better news comes from the IBD 100 and the IBD 85-85 index. They rallied 1.7% and 1.4% respectively, leading the market.
Volume was 3% lower on the Nasdaq and 1% higher on the NYSE. The mixed trade with the gains was not the most powerful show of support by funds, however the market did shake off some nasty intraday selling.
Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 4-to-1 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 2-to-1 margin.
A very good sign for the economy and the market is that GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.6%. The strength of this economy is evident in these numbers that keep coming out (even though recent weakness is showing up) along with the stock market gains. Stocks simply do not want to stay down.
The ability of the market to rally from that intraday selloff, after that ugly day on Monday, shows a lot of character. It was a very impressive comeback. However, I do wish that there would have been more volume on the recovery. But with leading stocks leading, I guess I have to be happy with today's performance. I am a natural optimist.
The one CLEARLY OBVIOUS trend that I have suddenly noticed today by the amount of breakouts and patterns that have all the sudden formed is the move in Oil & Gas stocks. US Integrated, Int Integrated, Field Services, US Expl/Prod, Machinery/Equip, and Drilling are all moving and have tons of stocks breaking out. A lot are coming from some rough patterns but there are a few gems here and there.
EPS and sales growth are amazing in this sector and ALL leading stocks in this sector are showing these amazing numbers. This group looks like it has more room to run. I thought the top was in but it looks like I was wrong. These fresh breakouts are ONLY bullish for this sector. Combine these charts and fundamentals along with the stock's low P/E ratios and you have stocks that are attractive to both growth and value fund managers.
We shall see what tomorrow brings. I hope you had a great day. Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: RRC BTJ GIFI IIG CTEC QI
Adding To Holdings: FBNW HOS
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): JST-52 IGLD-51 SVNT-85 HRT-29 TYL-54 BAM-50 WGA-27 HRZ-69 IHS-86 PSPT-32 DKS-26 CPA-38 TTEC-64 TRBN-38 OMTR-46 SIGM-29 IIVI-26 CCOI-36 BONT GLDN HMSY IAAC FTEK PCCC ACP AHS CELG AOI IMA INAP VCLK CRT BEZ MIKR BLUD MAIL BMA COH CKSW MVSN ROG CMT LTM IMKTA CNH WTS FMCN SUAI UAUA TSRA TSG SQM LQDT CMG FFH BMC SEIC LWAY DECK NSTC IFOX UCTT ACTU BOT MCRS RJET SMSC SKX PRFT CVLT CBF AWH TSYS OMNI RHA MNG FLML ITC ISIS IWOV HOS OMCL AMSF PNW NRF GSIC MCDT HNZ RAH HURN NU ALXN HAS RMKR BITI RVSB FBNW TMO
Shorts Up On The Day: NONE
Stocks On Watchlist: EDU INT IOSP HOLX UHCO RCRC RKT DLB VQ THRM SGZ GHDX XCO NBL SGMO NI XIDE MKTX PGS GOAM
Cut All Your Losses: HLTH -- A SHORT!!!! Over 235 longs and none are COMPLETE SELLS. Three shorts and one is a complete sell already. What does that tell you about this market?
Stocks Flatline On Very Heavy Volume; Churning Or Accumulation? Today was a day of uneventful economic numbers and listless trade, as markets pretty much ended the day the way they started. Early morning weakness was supported intraday, once again, showing that dips are still to be bought.
At the close the DJIA fell .04%, the Nasdaq fell .02%, the SP 500 rallied .08%, and the SP 600 led the way with a .3% gain. The IBD 100 kept pace with the small caps, gaining .3%. Leading stocks are leading. Nothing to complain about there.
Volume was much higher on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq. I am not sure if this is churning or if there is accumulation happening underneath. Churning because there has not really been any hardcore evidence the market has shaken off the selling from Monday. Accumulation because advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE and the Nasdaq and the indexes closed in the upper half of their intraday trading range.
A close above the recent highs proves this was accumulation, further deterioration to new monthly lows proves that it was churning. Only AFTER the fact will we know what today truely was. We just have our data and have to take the facts and prepare a game plan for either outcome.
For the month, the bears were left looking foolish again, with the DJIA rallying 1.2%, the SP 500 rallying 1.5%, and the Nasdaq and SP 600 leaping 2.7%. There was nothing bearish about this month, besides Monday. All the other bearish chit-chat by the douche-bags that get off on being bearish was trounced by all the stocks that made 25% plus gains in very short periods of time all month long.
Nothing happened today that changed anything that I have already written about. If you have not read the last three post before this most recent one, I would go over all of them.
Basically, it still feels like we are overbought and that the bulls are tired and the market needs a rest. However, all indexes are still in a solid uptrend and I have learned that it is never wise to trade against the trend. Until the trend is a solid downtrend, there is no reason to be bearish or to be going short. Especially when you are holding 240 stocks and you only get ONE!! clear "dump this stock" signal. And it was one with gains.
Until this slowing uptrend actually turns into a downtrend, I would remain a friend of this trend, no matter how overbought we are. Just don't be buying stocks on margin all the way up here. You should have done that in August, after the follow-through day. Never argue against a follow-through day. Wait for it to be proven wrong.
In August NOBODY believed in this rally. I barely did. But I kept with my charts and now I am sitting pretty with some good gains in some good stocks. A lot of those gains have had partial profits taken off the table and the money has now rotated into the newer buys. This is how it should be. This is a sign of a healthy market. It is still healthy; just a bit overbought.
One more day to go this week and we are done. I will see you tomorrow at Investors Paradise. I hope you have a great day. ALOHA!
New Swing Longs: AZS SGZ CLRT THK TTG ISBC
Adding To Current Longs: MAIL QI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
**Number is % gain since long taken. Only stocks up 25% have number.**
Longs Up On The Day: PTT-65 HRT-41 AOB-84 PSPT-38 CXW-35 SVNT-88 CHINA-75 BAM-52 ACP-25 INWK-52 IHS-87 JST-51 DIVX-38 HRZ-70 DKS-27 IGLD-51 MA-105 IDEV-43 ALTH-75 CCOI-39 REGN-30 KHDH-50 CMT GIFI MAIL ININ SKX FTEK RRC PRFT TCHC CRT BMC RBN IMKTA SQM SUAI VCLK ICE UCTT CCO ACTU DECK LWA MCRS COH RJET AOI BLUD HMSY IIG FFH BMA ISE BOT CNH NSTC TSG WTS CVLT ULTR QI ICFI MOS NRF IWOV SFL AW OEH NHP SCI AYE HNZ ALSK MNG CMCSA KO ADBE INPC NU MCDT MRB ASML OMCL RWT BITI RVSB AFT GMTC BUF ECGI
Short Up On The Day: ELP
Stocks On Radar: ALY AFAM TLF MCF SUPX SBH HTZ BKC KOG HINT WTSLA SA MEND SWKS PXP TWIN
FInal Hour Support Gives Bulls Hope, From Early Morning Weakness. After a slightly positive open, stocks soon took a turn for the worst as the ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time in over three years. But stocks, once again, for the second day in a row, found late support and finished in the upper half of their daily trading ranges. Those respectable closes helped ease the pain of the early losses.
At the close, the DJIA was lower by .2%, the SP 500 was down .3%, the Nasdaq was down .8%, and the SP 600 was lower by .4%. Leading stocks kept pace with technology stocks, with the IBD 100 index down .7%. However, none of the stocks in the index saw nasty reversals or heavy volume losses. Oil was the winner, with the Philly Oil Service Sector Index up 1%; the SOX was the big loser, dropping 1%.
Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 6-to-5 margin and negative on the Nasdaq by a 5-to-3 margin.
Volume was lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, even if volume was higher, I would not call this day a distribution day.
The indexes all finished in the upper half of their intraday ranges. That shows buyers are stepping in to support any selloff. If it is because fund managers need to show performance or if they are missing this rally, it doesn't matter. The fact they are doing the supporting on any selloff is all I need to know.
For the week, the SP 500 fell .3%, the DJIA fell .7%, the SP 600 fell .9%, and the Nasdaq led the way down with a 1.9% smack in the face.
After such a big uptrend, coming off the July/August lows, it was surprising to only see the market pullback as much as it did this week. If you remember, we started Monday off with a very nasty selloff (SP 600 fell 2.3%) so the fact that we were able to pair back those losses as the week went by was quite impressive.
The late day support the past two days after what seemed to be like clear distribution days shows that this market is resilient and clearly has the side of the bulls on it no matter how overbougt this market may seem. Even if you here comparisons about the market being as overbought as the 1987 market, trust me you don't have to worry.
I have studied leading stocks then as well as in other phases of market cycles. Stocks will give us selling and profit taking warnings and once the selling starts we will have clear sell signals before the crash actually takes place. Just like in 2000.
Does this mean that this market is going to end in a crash? Nobody knows but with the talk of it going to...it more than likely will not. Bottom line: Nobody can predict the future and until the trend changes you must stay with that trend. You will ALWAYS have time to sell before the blood runs all over wall street and main street.
The bond market is suggesting that the economy is going to slowdown. The yield is at 11 month lows and that means that speculators expect a weakening economy looking forward.
Growing signs of economic weakness have traders betting on a new round of rate cuts. Futures traders now see a 72% chance that the central bank will cut rates 25 basis points by March. That's up from 52% on Thursday and 37% a week earlier.
It is interesting to note NOW that the economy is starting to show some weak numbers because of the 17 rate hikes (NOT Bush's economic agenda) all the bears start really telling us how right they are. After three years...congratulations! You finally got it right. Way to be wrong the whole uptrend and miss out on tons of stocks making 100% plus gains in short amounts of time. However, yipee, things aren't going as well as they should. Yeah. What a joke, you natural born perma-shorts are.
Unless the market is in a severe downtrend and shorting is the obvious play, being a short seller never will make you the kind of money as the CANSLIM or a form of the CANSLIM system can. I have NEVER met a professional FULL-TIME short seller that ONLY made his money from shorting stocks in uptrends and downtrends.
Do me a favor and check out how well the short-sales only mutual funds do. You will see they do not do very well. Go on check out the record. I dare you.
Until this market actually tops and we see leading stocks start taking it on the chin along with the speculative issues, we have no reason to bet against the trend. Until the market agrees with the economic data, shorting just to think that you are ahead of the curve will cause you great pain. How are those traders doing that were shorting the market in October 2005 when I heard it was all over or worse yet October 2002 when EVERYONE I knew was CONVINCED it was ALL OVER!! The whole market was done for trader. That marked the bottom right there.
Unless the trend is down, I will not short. When the market turns lower, I will have plenty of time to profit on the short side. For now I fear missing the 1999 gains in 1999 trying to be too smart and predict a top. How many traders would not buy breakouts in late 1999 because they were convinced the top was in. Then when the top came in March 2000 they were the late ones getting in and now their opinions had them convinced more was coming. Nope. Until this trend changes, I am staying long. Just like I have been since August.
Stocks are expected to remain choppy next week as investors look to key employment and manufacturing reports. I assume so they can see how quickly we are going to go into that recession the bears and GWB haters oh so want. Whatever happens, I will be ready.
Stocks Rally On Lower Volume; SP 500 Hits Six-Year Highs
Stocks started off the week on a great note, possibly in thanks to another active day full of mergers & acquisitions and falling oil prices. Whatever the case may be, stocks are following the path of least resistance and bad news (for example, PFE) is being ignored.
At the closing bell, the SP 600 and Nasdaq led the way with 1.5% gains, the SP 500 hit a six-year high rallying .9%, and the DJIA rallied .7%. Leading stocks outpaced the broad market, as the IBD 100 rallied 1.7%. That is just what I like to see, in my rallies.
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq by a tad and much lower on the NYSE. Volume on the NYSE fell over 20%. Breadth was positive, however, by quite a large margin on both exchanges. There were seven advancers for every three decliners on the Nasdaq; on the NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 3-to-1 margin.
Chip stocks were the leading sector on the day, rallying 2%. The IBD Leasure-Gaming, Equipment group was the biggest winner by sector with a 4.8% gain.
The mood coming into today was more negative than last week. After the selling that we had last week, some bears decided to get vocal and press there luck on the top being in. Obviously, they were wrong and got trapped as a short covering rally occurred today.
As was evident in the support on the selloffs last week, today was really no shocker to me. I mentioned this weekend how it looked like--via individual charts and the market--accumulation was occurring from the intraday selloffs. Today showed that is what indeed was happening.
With 45 out of 100 issues in the IBD 100 and 100 out of my 250 longs up 2% or more today, it can be said that today was very impressive, without a doubt. This has clearly been one of the best days of this rally. Even with the last hour cooling and low volume on the NYSE today, today was still extremely impressive. You can nit-pick all you want; the final figures tells the tale.
The trend is up and is your friend until it is not up. Oil and Metals are becoming the new leaders again as sector roation into these stocks is clearly obvious by now. Just by looking at all the Oil sectors I mentioned this weekend and stocks in the Metals sector like NUE STLD and AP, you can see where the strength of this rally is AGAIN.
If there are any perma-bears out there that have been bad mouthing this whole rally, I would love to hear from you and hear how you are doing on the old profit & loss statements. Something tells me I will not be getting any responses.
We have the ISM Service Index number tomorrow and this should dominate all the headlines out there, unless something more interesting happens.
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
Stocks Rally On Lower Volume; SP 500 Hits Six-Year Highs. Stocks started off the week on a great note, possibly in thanks to another active day full of mergers & acquisitions and falling oil prices. Whatever the case may be, stocks are following the path of least resistance and bad news (for example, PFE) is being ignored.
At the closing bell, the SP 600 and Nasdaq led the way with 1.5% gains, the SP 500 hit a six-year high rallying .9%, and the DJIA rallied .7%. Leading stocks outpaced the broad market, as the IBD 100 rallied 1.7%. That is just what I like to see, in my rallies.
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq by a tad and much lower on the NYSE. Volume on the NYSE fell over 20%. Breadth was positive, however, by quite a large margin on both exchanges. There were seven advancers for every three decliners on the Nasdaq; on the NYSE advancers outpaced decliners by a 3-to-1 margin.
Chip stocks were the leading sector on the day, rallying 2%. The IBD Leasure-Gaming, Equipment group was the biggest winner by sector with a 4.8% gain.
The mood coming into today was more negative than last week. After the selling that we had last week, some bears decided to get vocal and press there luck on the top being in. Obviously, they were wrong and got trapped as a short covering rally occurred today.
As was evident in the support on the selloffs last week, today was really no shocker to me. I mentioned this weekend how it looked like--via individual charts and the market--accumulation was occurring from the intraday selloffs. Today showed that is what indeed was happening.
With 45 out of 100 issues in the IBD 100 and 100 out of my 250 longs up 2% or more today, it can be said that today was very impressive, without a doubt. This has clearly been one of the best days of this rally. Even with the last hour cooling and low volume on the NYSE today, today was still extremely impressive. You can nit-pick all you want; the final figures tells the tale.
The trend is up and is your friend until it is not up. Oil and Metals are becoming the new leaders again as sector roation into these stocks is clearly obvious by now. Just by looking at all the Oil sectors I mentioned this weekend and stocks in the Metals sector like NUE STLD and AP, you can see where the strength of this rally is AGAIN.
If there are any perma-bears out there that have been bad mouthing this whole rally, I would love to hear from you and hear how you are doing on the old profit & loss statements. Something tells me I will not be getting any responses.
We have the ISM Service Index number tomorrow and this should dominate all the headlines out there, unless something more interesting happens.
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: ASCA NUE OPLK OTEX RKT RCRC FTGX BBI WYNN SMF OSIR HINT
Adding to position: FLML
Complete Sells: MY TWO SHORTS!!!! HCBK ELP. Sell most of BULK.
Stocks Continue To Rise; New All-Time Highs For The SP 600.
Stocks climbed steadily higher, minus a noon dip, thanks in part to 3Q Productivity revision higher and a strong ISM Service index number. With the gains, the SP 500 hit its highest level since February 2001 and the SP 600 blasted to all-time highs.
When the final bell rang, the DJIA, SP 600, and SP 500 all scored .4% gains and the Nasdaq rallied .2%. Leading stocks led the way, with the IBD 100 rallying 1.2%. Leading stocks leading the market is just what you want to see in a rally. This theme continues.
The biggest gains came from the Philly Housing Sector index, with 2% gains. The big loser was the Philly Gold & Silver index. That index lost 1.2%.
Volume was basically flat compared to yesterday's levels on the Nasdaq and was higher on the NYSE by a good margin.
Advancers beat decliners on the NYSE by a 5-to-3 margin. On the Nasdaq advancers were pretty much even with decliners.
Stocks keep going higher, no matter what the news is. Today's reports could have been taken one way or the other. The fact that we closed with gains today will cause us to focus on the positive. So we say that traders are happy with the gains because the data might indicate that the Fed might want to start cutting rates here.
Who cares? I doubt these traders were buying stocks in August like the readers of this blog and other fellow CANSLIM investors were. They were the same group of traders telling us that the start of the correction was unfolding. 10% plus gains later and I am still waiting for my correction.
The truth is, overall, it was a pretty boring day with some exciting action underneath in the individual stock world. If we look at the top 50 stocks today we can see they were all up 10% plus. Looking at stocks down 10% or more, I can only find 14. This shows that even in a barely positive market that the true momentum is still on the bulls side. The big money is still to be made on the bull side.
Until this trend changes, I will remain on that side. However, being up this much from the July/August lows without a significant pullback is no place to LOAD-UP on stocks either. Common sense still must be used. So whatever you do, don't go "all-in" at this point of the rally. Just make normal rational buys with stocks breaking out of solid chart patterns. Stick to your rules. Don't break them. If you don't have any rules, stop trading now. If you want to go all-in here, I ask you why? Where were you in August and September? If the uptrend is obvious to you and your friends, now, it is too late. Trust me.
Aloha and I will see you here at Investors Paradise.
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