Leading Stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Add Another Painful Day To The Bears Already Sad State Of Affairs.
With a Fed meeting on Tuesday, stocks started the week on a positive note for the bulls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another all-time high and the SP 500 hit levels not seen since February 2001.
When all was said and done, the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way with a .95% gain, the SP 500 rose .62%, the Nasdaq rallied .57%, and the SP 600 gained .23%. Oddly, even with smaller stocks doing worse than bigger stocks, the IBD 100 led all indexes with a 1.1% gain.
Volume was lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, ahead of the Fed meeting. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 9-to-7 margin and was basically even on the Nasdaq.
The best news I see today is that leading stocks led the market today. I see plenty of positive action in individual charts of the current IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes.
The worst news I see today is the poor breadth in the overall market that had such good gains today. The fact that the Semiconductor, SP 600, and speculative stocks did so poorly shows that momentum money is on the sidelines waiting.
In my opinion, even with the big gains in the DJIA and the IBD 100, today was a wash with it favoring the bulls due to prices being up for the day. It’s hard to argue, with hard facts. With the trend still up, that is the side of the market I will operate on.
There sure wasn’t much else going on today. Except the talk about the FOMC meeting where rates should be left unchanged, it was a pretty dull day. Another fact that will be unchanged is the volatility of the markets during and after the announcement. Another fact is that volume will be quieter leading up to the announcement and much higher afterwards. With this kind of detailed insight, I am not sure where you can go wrong (saying this rolling my eyes).
I will see you tomorrow at Investors Paradise. TONS and TONS of information by me and other smart professional traders is posted constantly throughout the day there. If you only read this commentary and glance at my longs you are only getting a small portion of the whole package. I am online over 12-16 hours a day. The entire time I am at Investors Paradise. Do you want to know more about the longs? Do you want to get more info from my brief commentaries? Then Investors Paradise is where you will find this professional investor. Aloha and pray for big surf!!
New Swing Longs: HRT IAAC NGA AFT
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): CTCM-46 CPA-30 CHINA-33 HIS-78 HRZ-30 SYKE-44 INWK-33 TYL-45 UAHC-27 STEC-33 MEH-26 BEAS DIVX EVR FTEK BEBE AHS LWAY JST BONT LINTA KBAY MVSN DKS NSTC LMT IIVI DIOD SEIC DECK SIMO TIBX BMC HCSG PRFT ICE FSH QSII FORR ORB ???? DJO IMKTA RSTI VARI ISE TRAK OMTR AWH CBF MSLV CCOI OSIP KFT HB CMCSA MOS REGN ICE TTEC NOC IDEV AYE ETR ILC
Despite Weakness In Techs, Stock Indexes Drifted To A Flat And Mixed Close In A Quiet Session. The markets pretty much did what traders expected before the FOMC meeting finishes up tomorrow, flatlining and ending pretty much flat. The exception was the Nasdaq, after a poor sales forecast from TXN. Besides that, the DJIA hit another all-time high.
At the close, the SP 600 led with a .2% gain, the DJIA gained .09%, the SP 500 ticked higher by .03%, and the Nasdaq led to the downside with a .46% hit. Leading stocks led with a .3% gain on the 85-85 index and the IBD 100.
Volume was higher on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The higher volume on the Nasdaq gives the index its third distribution day in the past four weeks. However, this can hardly be counted as a clear cut distribution day.
Breadth was positive on the NYSE by 9-to-7 margin and negative on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
Even with the Nasdaq suffering another distribution day, it was another weak distro day. I only ended up selling off 3 stocks today. If this market was being distributed harder I would be sending off many more. It is also hard to call this a distribution day considering it was an inside day on the index. Most distribution days will break the support of the prior day's gains. It is definitely hard to say that sellers were in control.
The ugly news is the SOX. Watching it fall 1.1% does not give me confidence that the momentum money is ready to play. I am not sure if not having the hot money in the SOX is going to hurt. But I am sure it isn't going to help either.
This is the reason, I believe, that I still don't have any stocks up 100% or more since the rally started in August. Normally, by this time, I should have one to three up over 100%. It isn't happening this time.
However, the BTK--X, is still near that all-time high and I have a lot of beautiful biotech charts. So maybe that is where the "hot" money is going.
The beautiful news on today's market is that leading stocks are still leading the market. Since it retook the lead 3 weeks ago, leading stocks have continued to outperform the indexes to the upside and lag on the downside. This is bullish action.
Despite all the earnings reports, the market is still held hostage by the FOMC. We will see what tomorrow brings. I am sure it is an unchanged decision, leaving rates at 5.25%. I will see you at Investors Paradise. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: MCRS CVA MOSS BVX BMA
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: AKAM-210 KNOL-173 TYL-46 CXW-36 MA-42 RMTR-45 HRZ-34 MWRK-32 INPH-35 RNST-26 ININ BITS AOB HMSY FSH FTEK HEI RSTI MDCI NSTC TRAD INAP FELE ISE TCHC ICE BEBE DIVX SIMG SVNT WEBX LMT QSII PSPT KBAY EVR XING LTM DECK FORR TWGP FBNW JST BONT MVSN ROG ALXA CBF PDSN OMNI OSIP DANKY CMCSA MNG MYE AIQ VVI NWL FLEX RWT IDEV BMR NU NYMX TP
Shorts Up On The Day: MDG
Stocks On Radar Screen: NUE SCA MR MAIL TZOO LTS MTOX
FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged; Major Market Indexes Rally, While Leading Stocks Retreat.
It was another wild Fed day filled with an up and down and back up move intraday. The FOMC left rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row. Stocks took the news well, with the DJIA hitting another all-time high and the SP 500 hitting six year highs.
At the final bell, the SP 600 led the way up with a .72% gain, the Nasdaq followed with a .5% gain, the SP 500 rose .35%, and the DJIA rallied .06%. The weakness was in the leading stocks, with the IBD 100 falling .09%. Not what you want to see on an up day.
Volume was higher on the Nasdaq and the NYSE, easing the distribution day (if you can call it that) yesterday on the Nasdaq. Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 2-to-1 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 9-to-7 margin.
The gains were impressive today, considering the pressure that was put on the market early in the day. Oil rising $2, GM hurting the DJIA, existing home sales falling 1.9%, and many earnings disappointments were some of the things the market was able to beat back today.
The trouble areas are with leading stocks. Having leading stocks fall while the rest of the indexes rise is never positive and makes me wonder how much further upside is left in the short term.
Speaking of trouble, there are some things that really bother me about this rally. In my scan of longs I am having a lot of closed end funds, REITs, and medical stocks show up. These show up in bear markets. The weakness in the Semiconductor arena also worries me about the amount of speculative money that is in the market. Leaders are still lagging, overall, since the August follow through. By this time in the beginning of a rally they should be leading by a good margin. And the biggest problem: I have not been involved in a rally in the overall stock market for over two months and not have ANY stocks up near 100%. You could say RMTR was close moving 64% in three weeks but I still should have one or two stocks up 100%. I do not.
Does this mean that I am getting bearish? No. The trend is still in a solid uptrend and you see how well the bears have been doing the past three months. This simply means that my caution level has to rise. I am simple confused as to why this market is so slow moving up with the indexes like the SP 500 up over 6% this year. Last October, I had tons of stocks BLAZING by the overall market. This is the first uptrend since April-August 2000 where I have done worse than the market and have not reached old highs while another index has.
If you subscribe to RevShark’s service and follow all the top indexes of IBD, you will see that a lot of momentum CANSLIM investors are not doing well. Small profits are better than no profits but I like having stocks run 100% in two months and like having 5 out of 10 stocks move up 25% in two to three weeks. This rally has been lacking of any of that kind of action.
Yet here we are continuing to make higher highs. We will see what the next couple of days bring. I am not sure how much I am going to be able to contribute to the commentary the next three to four market sessions.
If you are not familiar with Halloween in Lahaina, then you would not understand. I will see you at Investors Paradise. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: AETH CLS HGSI TRT BMTI NEWP DCAI NAPS
Added To Existing Position Intraday: TSTC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: CVO-130 XING-34 AOB-27 HRZ-35 INWK-29 SYKE-43 DA-41 ABI-33 BRLC-29 CCOI-28 VOCS TSTC IAAC TCHC ISE LWAY SIMG SMSC IIVI KBAY WEBX TIBX HRT LINTA BEBE BEAS VARI DIOD SVNT FELE HCSG TWGP ROG AHS PCBK LTM INAP EVR CAB BMC ORB NITE FTEK NSTC MVSN OMTR MOS OMNI SMP PERY ADBE RWT MYE ETR MNG AYE NU NWL IDEV SCI MDRX BULK SZE SUAI IONA
Shorts Up On The Day: NONE
Cover Shorts Completely: ASA SM
Cut Your Loss/Take Your Profits: DDS NOC FLEX ISYS
Stocks On Radar Screen: APKT ACOR DR ANAD SUNW SYNA TOC
The Nasdaq Leads A Strong Rally, On Heavier Trade; Breakout, Breakouts, And More Breakouts. After an early morning dip, stocks fully recovered to close near the session's highs. A bunch of home sales figures were released on the day but they had no effect in stopping the DJIA from hitting another all-time high, the SP 500 another six year high, and the Nasdaq to five and a half year highs. How is this bearish, bears?
At the close the Nasdaq rallied .96%, the SP 600 rose .85%, the SP 500 gained .5%, and the DJIA rallied .24%. Leading stocks lagged the Small caps and techs, gaining .6%. The other leading stock index the IBD 85-85 rose 1.3%. It has more stocks and can catch more winners going up than the IBD 100 can. I consider this confirming the bullish moves in the index. Overall, not a bad day at all.
Volume was higher on the Nasdaq and lower on the NYSE and breadth was positive on both indexes by a 2-to-1 margin. The higher volume on the Nasdaq gives the index yet another clear accumulation day which helps alleviate from the mind the very weak distribution days the indexes had.
Today was a very great day for the indexes even know the results don't show it. Many many stocks are now creating very nice bases and I have tons of stocks now moving higher that I am long and am finding many new longs and soon to be new long (yes, I know I used the "and" instead of a comma). This is all very bullish and I have to listen to my charts as they say "we are going higher."
I have been very lucky to be away from the talking heads of the market the past two days. I forgot how important and wonderful it is to not get caught up in all the BULLSHIT intraday action that happens. The big money is not made intraday. I hate to break it to you "market watchers."
I was really impressed by the durable good orders as they rose 7.8%. That was the best in six years! Did you see those transport orders? They jumped 27.6%. Normally I don't give a flying leap of a bridge about these numbers but this number is very impressive.
But according to ABC CNN CBS NBC the economy sucks. Somebody forgot to tell the stock market and the economy that it sucks. Thank God we have borderline retarded journalist on these networks to tell us that gas prices are falling because Republicans are using it to gain votes. My question is why not keep it low the whole term? Most journalist are simply morons. Don't listen to them. Gather the facts on your own and then make a decision on your own.
If you are making decisions on your own and not listening to the idiots on TV then you are making money in this market, you are long stocks, you are not shorting very uptick, and trying to call the next top.
I am amazed I had time to even post this. These are the thoughts of this madman on this current rally. I keep saying over and over: "Once momentum starts, it is hard to stop." When the market is ready to move, it moves; it doesn't stop. While you wait for a pullback to feel safe to buy stocks, the markets keep going higher and higher. Maybe the market has topped. But I don't have this many breakouts in quality names at market tops.
It looks like the "I hate everything that GWB does" crowd is helping lie to the public. That is the perfect "wall of worry" for the market to climb. The constant bad news on Iraq and the bashing of one of the strongest economies ever only helps ensure that we will continue to move higher.
When the journalist are this brainfucked and brainwashed, this is what you get. BULLISH MARKETS! Your biased media is throwing everything at this economy and yet the markets keep hitting new highs. Can you really respect their biased reporting?
In 2001, Rothman and Amy Black updated the "Media Elite" survey of national journalists and established that 76% voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988 and 91% for Bill Clinton in 1992. A Freedom Forum Poll reinforced the "Media Elite" survey when it documented that 89% - nine out of 10 - Washington reporters and bureau chiefs voted for Clinton in 1992 and 7% voted for George Bush.
Ding, ding, ding! I will see you at Investors Paradise. Aloha from Maui where the "Mardi Gras of the Pacific" is about ready to start.
New Swing Longs: CELG LNET BLUD WSTG MSTR FFH IGLD SAI MAIL PCCC DSCM QDEL CCBL GSL TNH
Stocks Pullback On Lower Volume; It Looked Scarier Than It Was. After starting the day to the downside, thanks to a weak GDP report, stocks firmed up and appeared ready to close positive for the day. However, a late day report from Goldman Sachs stating that they are cutting growth forecast for motherboard shipments hit the market and stocks fell across the board.
When the final bell rang, The SP 600 and Nasdaq fell 1.2%, the SP 500 fell .8%, and the DJIA fell .6%. Leading stocks led to the downside with the IBD 100 falling 1.5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector index got hit for a 1.9%. The networking sector dropped 1.6%, and the computer hardware group fell 1.3%.
The only good news to come out of this decline was the fact that volume came in lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The volume receded a full 10% on the NYSE. This indicates funds weren’t necessarily stepping all over each other trying to dump stocks.
Decliners beat advancers by a 2-to-1 margin on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Despite the losses on Friday, it was a positive week for the markets. The SP 600 led to the upside with a .77% gain, the DJIA was up .73%, the SP 500 rallied .64%, the IBD 100 gained .4%, and the Nasdaq lagged with a .36% gain. Small caps are leading big caps which are leading tech stocks.
This market has been in a steady uptrend ever since the August follow-through and to get hit with one day of losses after such a nice uptrend is not something to get too worried about. However, at this point of the rally you would have to think some back and filling would be required to stage another run. Momentum is a hard beast to tame but a pullback here would be very refreshing. I don’t know if we will get it but I just want to make clear that I don’t see a pullback here as being a negative thing as long volume remains subdued.
This market has shown that it is irrational by far. Tons of stocks are getting taken out to the woodshed, once again, this earnings season and there is no signs in the charts that the damage was coming. One more time I want to thank the politicians for enacting another WORTHLESS Regulation; regulation FD. The other side of the irrationality is the constant highs in the indexes with no pullbacks. Something has got to give. When it does give, I am sure it is going to be choppy and a tiresome market. Until earnings season is over, there is still more of this irrational action to come.
I normally don’t place anything big on analyst notes or brokerage annoucements but it is clearly obvious that today’s late selloff was caused by the comments out of Goldman. This appears to be an overreaction but it also shows that bears are looking for any kind of news to jump all over. The buyers will have to come back soon so the bears don’t feel like pressing it to the downside.
Is the market going to start selling off or is this a little dip before more new highs? I don’t know. The only thing we all know is that we know nothing. The only way to combat this is to follow your buy and sell rules to a perfect T. Buying only the best stocks breaking out of clean bases with a hard cut loss plan is the best way to make money if this market shoots the moon or protect your money if the market shoots itself to mess.
I have done some portfolio cleaning and still remain very long. Getting rid of your laggards is the smartest thing to do here if you feel very uncertain. If you are long stocks that you bought a week to a month ago and it is showing you nothing or worse some losses, take some off the table. Remember, a stock after I take it or you take it should immediately move up. That is the ultimate “you got it right” tell. If the stock does not immediately move up, you know that something is not right. The breakout should have worked. The only proper move is to admit you are wrong (I know it is sooo hard; get over it) and move on.
Enjoy the weekend. I am out of here. I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: MIKR ULTR GLBC
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: TTEC-34 CHINA-27 DA-43 MA-45 Q-90 MEH-25 BRLC-34 ABI-32 CCOI-29 DECK LNET APLX MSTR LWAY ININ FORR CELG FTEK INAP CPA BEBE DUCK DKS CMCSA LINTA OMTR BMTI SAI ETE AWH TSYS CVA PHRM HGSI VCP NEWP AETH OLP
Shorts Up On The Day: MDG
Stocks On Radar Screen: KDN KKD IFLO MEND
Take All Your Proftis/Cut All Your Losses: ALXA IDXX WEBX ORB MPW CLS SIMG
Halloween Scares Traders Away As Stocks End Mixed On Lower Volume. It was a day of basically nothing. Stocks pretty much finished flat and mixed with traders not doing much. The most exciting and what you would think positive news was taken with a yawn--oil fell 3.9%.
At the close the DJIA lost 4 points, the SP 500 gained .04%, the SP 600 gained .4%, and the Nasdaq recovered some of Friday's losses gaining .56%.
Volume was much lower on the Nasdaq and lower on the NYSE.
The only thing I can even think of to talk about today is...nothing! Nothing has changed since Friday. I swear to God, you will not find me lost for words very often. However, this market today offered me nothing exciting to talk about.
Nothing has changed since this weekend. Therefore, if you have not read my last week post, do so now. This will get you caught up to where we are today. Nothing, once again, has changed.
The only thing odd about today is the lack of volume. If volume is lower tomorrow also, I guess we can come to the conclusion that Halloween has become a Wall Street pseudo-holiday. If volume is above average tomorrow then obviously my analysis is wrong.
The only thing not odd but refreshing was the leadership in the internet, semi, and networking sectors. However, is you look at the SOX, you will see that these markets are not leading sectors and that momentum money is surely not in these sectors. A bounce in this sector should only be treated as that.
Today lacked any catalyst and the rest of the week looks dull for market moving news. I guess we will see how hard market participants party tomorrow on Halloween.
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: SMSI BIDU SIGM MFRI SFL
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: Q-96 XING-37 INWK-36 AOB-26 LWAY-25 HRZ-39 CXW-36 TYL-51 SYKE-44 IHS-75 HRT IAAC APLX MIKR LMT TRAD DIVX BMC HEI DUCK TSTC QSII PCBK BEBE BLUD HCSG SMSC IIVI ININ ACGL AHS LNET MVSN FORR TCHC PSPT TWGP LTM ISE RSTI VARI CMCSA DIOD MDCI INAP FBNW DKS PRFT SEIC BMTI SAI AWH ULTR OMTR ETE ALSK MOS DSCM TSRA CPA NEWP SVVS VCP MNG NWL NGA NHP VVI AETH XNR MOSS OLP
Shorts Up On The Day: HYDL-15
Stocks On Watch List: PMD ULTI GCOM DR UAUA SXE KKD XOMA COH
Halloween Can't Stop This Market; Stocks Finish Higher On Higher Volume. Market Commentary Before Opening Bell...that is if I get to it. Tonight is the "Mardi Gras of the Pacific." I live on the street that has the festival so I might not be able to get to the commentary.
New Swing Longs: JRVR AEP RJET TRBN MRB
Adding To Longs: SUAI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: AOB-34 HRZ-44 AKAM-193 DA-45 MA-50 BRLC-37 SOFO-28 IDEV-29 ABI-30 BAM-42 CELG PSPT ICE DIOD HMSY INAP NITE ROG LNET IMA SVNT CPA HRT BLUD CMCSA LINTA BEBE DKS IMKTA BMR APLX BONT IGLD DUCK MSTR BMC TTEC HEI TDY QSII BMTI MAIL ETE AWH ULTR ISIS MNG REGN AXTI SIGM AYE AUXL MFA AETH MOS NU HGSI NHP AZK ITC PCCC MNKD NEWP PNW SUAI APRO MOSS TP
Shorts Up On The Day: NONE
Cover All Shorts: MDG HYDL
Dump All Longs: NUVO VOCS AVNC WSTG SMSI CVA BIDU GILT OLAB NGA
Stock Market Suffers First Clear Day Of Distribution Since The Beginning Of The Rally. A weaker than expected ISM manufacturing index reading helped send stocks into a semi-free fall. The number was the weakest number in over three years and traders did not like that at all. Where is the reverse Dow 12,000 bug
When the final bell rang, the SP 600 led the selloff with a 1.6% decline, the Nasdaq fell 1.4%, the SP 500 fell .7%, and the DJIA fell .4%. The sad news is that leading stocks took it worse with the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 index both falling over 2%. The SOX index fell 2.1%, indicating speculative money is indeed not around. The SOX is now officially ready to begin its rollover.
Volume was higher on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, marking a clear distribution day for the indexes. This is the first clear distribution day I have seen the whole uptrend.
Breadth was more than 2-to-1 negative on the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
I tell you what the past three weeks or whatever it has been of earnings reports has shown how wild and crazy this uptrend has been. So many stocks make gains just to get destroyed by missing. I keep saying I hate Reg FD but I think I hate this market environment more for its choppiness. Funny thing is the VIX is historically extremely low. Not sure how to swallow that.
What I do understand is the action in my stocks. I have some very nice charts that are acting quite normal but am starting to get profit taking or straight up "sell all" signals with a lot of my holdings. Luckily the majority of the stocks pulling back have already seen me lock in gains and I don't have too much to worry about. My account fell 1.9% on the day and I had well over 2-to-1 negative stocks to up stocks. I would call that a victory, if you ask me.
You have to understand this rally has been built on a foundation of crap. Big cap stocks led the beginning of the rally and after small caps joined they immediately start sputtering. The fact that the SOX has the early look of an index rolling over after failing the breakout in October just adds another warning flag that we must be ready to move to the sidelines in case the selling starts to come in.
A couple more days of the market down on higher volume with some 1% declines will have me worried that this uptrend is about to fail. The fact that many of my prettiest charts produced gains under 100% during this rally was the ultimate tell that the market may not be ready for more gains. If you look at the IBD 100, IBD 85/85, or any other leading stock index you can see they are nowhere near the May highs. This negative divergence must be respected now that the market may come under some selling.
What if the selling doesn't come in? Then you just keep doing what we have been doing the past three months. Buy stocks breaking out of beautiful bases that have excellent fundamentals and if they don't work cut your losses. It is that simple. You just don't go buy everything that I post in my blog as a long. You need to make sure it is a perfect setup for YOU. If the criteria isn't good enough for CANSLIM investors why should you trade it just because I am addicted to trading. My addiction should never be a recommendation to buy stocks like ATCO ICFI INO. Stick to the rules that have proven to work time and again with the greatest stock market winners and you will be fine in the long run.
The technical damage is not severe yet. We just need to be ready for the market to start a down leg. A day like today has a way of scaring traders, and fear has a nasty way of working fast in the markets. Nothing says that is going to happen but after a move like we have had where we didn't see any down days over 1% until recently should raise the level of caution in all traders that a pullback might happen.
I am still tired from the extremely fun night last night on Front Street. I have a question to ask. Is it possible to be more naked than naked? If you were on Front Street last night, you know exactly what I am talking about. But for EVERYONE else that reads this blog (which is everybody) I can only wish you could have seen the beauties and their incredibly HOT HOT HOT costumes. It was a great night!!
I will see you tomorrow at Investors Paradise.
New Swing Longs: D ICFI INO ATCO STSI
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: HMSY-31 AOB-38 HRZ-47 DA-46 MA-70 AUXL-25 KNOL-160 RICK MIKR TNH ICE DUCK LMT IGLD LINTA APLX PCBK TRBN CVLT MAIL CBF OMTR ETE ULTR AZK MNG AXTI AEP NEXC HURN MOS PNW ETR NU AYE DCAI IONA
Take All Profits/Losses: FBNW BDX MDCI MCRS VARI PCTI DSCM CVO TRAD DIOD QSII CGX BVX
Morning Selloff Is Absorbed As Stocks End Flat. The markets started off the day quite weak, after factory orders and productivity numbers came in below Economist expectations and weak October sales came in below analyst expectations. However, by the end of the day, stocks managed to fight there way back to unchanged levels and give a respectable close.
At the close, the SP 600 led to the downside falling .3%, the DJIA fell .1%, and the SP 500 and Nasdaq closed down by a fraction.
Volume came in lower on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. This is the kind of nice calm pullback you want to see after such a clear day of distribution the day before. Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 9-to-7 margin and negative on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin.
In my opinion, the action today was quite positive considering that we could have followed through on yesterday's selling with further losses today on higher volume. However, barely changing on lower volume has to be taken as a much better alternative to the former scenario.
Despite that the market has still seen the DJIA finish down for the fifth straight day. This is the longest streak of down closes on this index since June 2005. That isn't horrible, considering the size of the losses, but the trend on the short term is now down and the bulls have to respect that.
With the downtrend comes a lot of high quality stocks that are seeing some nasty surprises to the downside caused by poor earnings reports or earning reports that are being taken quite negatively by Wall Street. You just don't see this kind of action in a bull market.
Another thing you want to see that we are not seeing is Banks, Retail, and Semis leading. If you look at the major Philly indexes for these sectors you will see they all tried breaking out of a recent consolidation pattern the past month and they have all rolled over. You don't see this action during a strong market. You will see these indexes hold their breakouts. Now the RLX and BKX aren't in bad shape yet. So don't think I am completely bearish on these sectors. I am simply seeing warning flags in the stocks in these sectors that are causing me to open my eyes to the possibility that the market could get worse from here.
In bull markets, bad earnings releases are still treated like good earnings releases and earnings reports that beat expectations are well rewarded. Very few stocks that are blowing away analyst estimates are seeing those huge rewards hold; much less them seeing follow through gains after the report.
This market at best can be called an uptrending market with horrible action in stocks. This indicates only a select few of big caps are holding this up and even with the amount of small stocks participating it doesn't matter. Why? Because these small stocks are crap quality.
The best bet in this environment is to remain cash heavy with a long bias until further weakness shows up. Cutting your losses on stocks that do not immediately follow through is key until the market starts giving us more high quality breakouts that work for a prolonged length of time. One month of gains followed by a slow death is not how a stock should act. Stocks are showing a nasty habit of following that pattern since the May top that led to the downtrend that ended in July.
I am not sure how much downside remains or if there is even more downside to come. All I know is I am seeing signs that make me want to protect profits, cut losers, and keep my cash heavy. This rally has been flimsy and I have discussed ad naseum about all the negative things I see in my current holdings. The biggest one was not having any 100% gainers during the uptrend. I have not had that happen to me since 2000. Even in bear markets I nail some short term big winners. I couldn't even hit them in a market that was rallying. Was that my fault? Hell no! I have changed nothing. It is the market that changed. And trust me, It will change back. You don't have to worry about that. This market is designed to knock out the emotionally weak traders.
Emotionally weak traders you will be eliminated in this market. Grow some balls, take some personal responsibility, and stay positive. This will be the only way to make it out of this market environment with your sanity intact.
I will see you at Investors Paradise. Aloha!
New Swing Longs: DJO CNH OME
New Swing Shorts: NONE
Longs Up On The Day: HMSY-35 IHS-76 AKAM-192 TYL-43 CXW-34 TTEC-32 MA-75 FCSE-50 SOFO-28 BAM-41 TSRA AHS PSPT JST LWAY SVNT IGLD ACGL MSTR IAAC PCBK FFH PCCC INAP DIVX BLUD CMCSA TSTC HEI FORR BONT FSH IMKTA BEBE IMA SMSC OMTR CVLT BMA SIGM BMRN STSTI MOS REGN WSH TSYS STZ NEWP GSTL MNG HNZ CMO NU GSL MRB
Stocks On Radar Screen: NYX APKT CVLL XOMA FLML KO TESS
Take All Of Your Profits/Cut All Of Your Losses: IIVI VVI D PEI PWR SVVS VSNT TWGP MNKD
Stocks Fall Again, On Lower Volume, But Finish Off Worst Levels Of The Day. Positive news from the ISM service index, a lower than expected unemployment rate, and positive revisions to payroll numbers in August and September were not enough to stop the DJIA from falling for its sixth straight session; the Nasdaq and SP 500 also made it three in a row.
At the close the SP 600 led the way with a .3% gain, the Nasdaq fell .1%, the SP 500 fell .2%, and the DJIA fell .3%. Leading stocks joined the SP 600 on the upside, with the IBD 100 gaining .3%.
Volume was lower on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, indicating sellers weren't eager to unload stocks, today. Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 6-to-5 margin and by a 3-to-2 margin on the Nasdaq.
For the week the DJIA lost .9%, the SP 500 fell .9%, and the Nasdaq fell .8%. These are not horrible losses but it is a change in the short term trend of the indexes. The real short term crack-in-the-armor came from the SP 600 and the IBD 100. They fell 1.8% and 2.7% respectively. I do not like seeing these indexes lead to the downside. Yet, here we go again.
Overall it was another positive pullback for the indexes. It was not a distribution day, the indexes did not fall .25%, and I didn't have any stocks blow-up. I can't ask for much more than that on a day that didn't show gains for the indexes. Well, maybe, I could ask for positive breadth. That wouldn't hurt.
I have to be honest, the past two days have not been that bad considering the selloff we had on Wednesday. A lot of market pundits swore that we would start selling off straight down. The fact that those predictions have not come to fruition should show you that the market is stronger than even I think it is right now.
The other obvious is the fact that even though I took in a lot of stock and had to selloff 20 or so longs, I am still getting some longs setting up and having other longs I am holding making some sharp gains. I even have another candidate for a possible short term 100% winner. However, it will probably end up like the other recent one.
Still we have to respect the obvious fact that stocks are still getting taken to the woodshed left and right. Mostly it is in stocks already in downtrends but I have been long enough of these to realize that the market is not in the best shape.
Seeing the new lows tick up and new highs tick down a lot with just the one day selloff also indicates to me that the rally is not pent up with a lot of momentum. This all goes with the obvious patterns I have talked about in the Retail, Bank, and Semi indexes.
The poor action of these indexes, the weakness in highly rated stocks, and some recent market distribution should be enough of a reason right now to convince you to keep some powder dry, don't invest on margin, and with the longs you do take to keep them small. The most important thing right now, in this whippy weird market, is to make sure you buy stocks at the correct buy point and DO NOT CHASE. Most stocks that have blown up have not caused me severe damage do to me following this rule.
Many stocks that are bought past the correct buy points can leave you thrashed. If you buy at the right time and a stock blows up and finds support on that day you can wait around and see what happens. Further selling means leave but sometimes they find support and start marching higher. If you chase a stock, you more than likely will not be able to experience this scenario as you are hit with an initial HUGE loss.
What do I see that is bullish? I love seeing the Computer-Networking group jump from number #147 to #2 in the Industry Group list. I also love seeing these Internet groups jump up the list from #148 to #38 Internet-Software, #108 to #39 Internet-Content, and #105 to #24 Computer Software-Enterprise. If these stocks can start showing more leadership, it is possible the market will start picking back up again as speculative money comes off the sidelines into the "hot" stocks.
If you don't think tech is still hot, you are nuts. Speaking of nuts, if you want to participate in the conversation, you can always find me at Investors Paradise. I am logged on all day. Aloha and have a great weekend!!
New Swing Longs: TSG PSMT MTOX
Adding To Holdings: GLBC
Longs Up On The Day (low vol non-IBD excluded): CTCM-31 HRZ-47 CXW-35 IHS-78 TTEC-33 TYL-44 BMTI-29 OMTR-26 MA-80 BRLC-69 REGN-26 HRT CAB ININ QDEL IGLD JST DJO MVSN NSTC CHINA CPA PCCC SMSC HEI SVNT ACGL EVR BITS IMKTA RSTI TSRA XING CELG HCSG INAP ETE TSTC SEIC TNH ROG PSPT FORR FTEK ISE LTM FSH DKS ICFI TRBN CVLT SAI BMA ULTR AWH AZK TRAK RWT ATCO GLBC MRB ELOY
Leading Stocks Lead Stock Indexes Higher, On Higher Volume. We need to find a reason why the markets went higher today. I know I will pick that it was the mergers and that scared the shorts. Merger, mergers, and more mergers. I guess this is what we will attribute the gains in the indexes to. My guess is just as good as CNBC's guess.
It was a very good day for the indexes, with the Nasdaq rallying 1.5%, the SP 600 leaping 1.3%, the SP 500 jumping 1.1%, and the DJIA rising 1%. The better news comes from the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes. They both rallied 2%, leading the overall market. The best news of the day came from the DJ Trucking Index and the AMEX Airline Index. Those indexes rose 4.2% and 2.8% respectively.
Volume was higher today on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. However, volume wasn't the most powerful, with volume barely rising 3% on the Nasdaq and 1% on the NYSE. This is an accumulation day but it doesn't have the feel of an obvious accumulation. A big jump (20% or more) in volume would have me LOVING this rally. However, I can only get a bit excited, because, to be honest, volume sucked.
Breadth was positive on the NYSE by a 3-to-1 margin and positive on the Nasdaq by a 2-to-1 margin.
OK, I have read all the pundits and all the market commentaries out there. I hear the bearish side and I hear the bullish side. I have come to the conclusion that this is purely a waste of time. I see so many commentators wasting so much time talking about how and why this market is going to fail that I wonder if they are investing/speculating/trading this market at all.
I keep hearing how everyone is bullish, yet after I go through the chat transcripts of blogs and chatrooms I see that a TON of people are shorting these upticks. Now I am not bullish or bearish but I am starting to get a ton of stocks, that I am already long, that are acting properly as they stairstep there way up. Being long 200 stocks it is hard to be bearish when I have so many stocks going up or sideways even after last weeks wild earnings ride.
Tonight, I only had one stock I had to get rid of. Out of 203 stocks, 177 were up. That is much better breadth than the overall market. That tells me that the right side is still the long side. Yes, there have been some hits here and there but if you look at my "longs up on the day" section, you will see that I am starting to get plenty of stocks up 25% or more now. I still haven't hit a homerun but the market isn't saying SELL SELL SELL.
This is why I think it is silly to try to call a failed breakout/top here. Until the market gives us some more CLEAR distribution days and I start having all my charts acting wrong, I have to remain long this market.
Could it roll over tomorrow? Yes. But what if it rallies 20% from here before rolling over? If it rolls over tomorrow, I take my current gains, cut my losses, and go to cash. If it rallies 20% from here, I am perfectly positioned for more gains in case EVERYONE is wrong.
The only problem I have is that the people that are bullish are VERY bullish. They are very loud and very vocal about how right they are. If you notice I AM NOT BRAGGING. I am simply stating facts. I have been writing this blog since March 2005 and have hit every intermediate market turn by not being a genius but by going on FACTS. FACTS are the ONLY thing that is going to make me money. Not guessing if this market is going to rollover and analyzing to death this silly market. The only way to make money is by listening to the market.
If you are not doing exactly what the market is doing then YOU are wrong. Not the market. No matter how much you don't like this rally, it is still a rally. You should be making money in this market. Trading/investing emotionally by dumping all your holding due to one 1% down day is stupid trading. It is emotional trading that will cause you to never make it in this game.
There is no place for emotional trading if you want to make it in this business. Staying agnostic in the stock market is the smartest thing you can do. Are there things that worry me about this rally? Of course. I stated them last week. However, am I going to trade on those worries? Hell no! I am trading on facts and facts state that stocks are breaking out and having a rough go of it but are still making gains.
It may not be 2003 or Oct-May 2005 but there are still plenty of great stocks out there. Just look below.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006 Democrats Take Congress; Stocks Keep Rallying. I am still out of commission. I am just using a friends laptop to write commentary and will have access to my friends computer tonight to post new longs.
After a shift in Congress possibly led to early selling, stocks reversed to close higher. That gave the Nasdaq its highest close in five years, a third day of gains for the SP and DJIA, the DJIA a new all-time high, and the fourth day of gains for the SP 600.
At the close, the SP 600 led to the upside with a .7% gain, the Nasdaq followed with a .4% gain, the SP 500 and DJIA lagged with a .2% gain.
Volume was lower on the Nasdaq and higher on the NYSE, with breadth positive on the Nasdaq by a 3-to-2 margin and by a 5-to-3 margin on the NYSE.
Today saw a very bullish reversal by the markets. It is hard to find any fault in that. If you are a bull, I wouldn't get too cocky over the recent action. However, you can't deny that you have been right while all the "smart" bears have been wrong ONCE AGAIN.
The real story, of course, was the elections. The fact that there was no huge selloff and everything remained with the trend proves that the news was already cooked in the books. Just like it always is. HMO's, however, did get hit on the news with the HMO stocks taking some of the biggest hits on the day. Oil did well, thanks to an uptick in prices but possibly by the fact that California voters rejected the completely stupid and insane gas tax. Are you liberal-anti-capitalist-I-never-saw-a-tax-I-didn't-like nuts? I guess you are. Well at least you have the Congress now. Let's see what you can tax now!!
Another bullish posture for this market is CSCO. CSCO jumped 9% afterhours which can only be taken as bullish.
That along with the market hitting new highs shows that the trend is up and the trend, remember, is your friend. Fighting this trend by trying to be a "super smart" bear is only going to make you look "broke and retarded" in the end. JUST LIKE ALWAYS. Waiting for the market to rollover before beginning your "oh so cool" bear operations is the smart play while stocks keep rallying in your face.
I have not scanned my charts yet tonight but somehow I doubt I will have a lot of selling to do when I do get to my accounts. I am sure most stocks are still going with the trend. Just like they do when the markets go higher. If your stocks are not going up while the market is, you better start selling some laggards and finding some winners. If you can't find any winners that may be a sign that the market is ready for a breather.
We will see if that is the case after I get to scan my charts. Funny thing is, boys and girls, even though I don't have my own hardware and am using other peoples equipment, do you think I feel lost? HELL NO. I am still as in-synch as I ever was. All I need to know is what the market is doing. THAT IS IT!!!! YOU DON'T NEED ANYTHING ELSE! Are you listening to me? All you need is to know what the market is doing. Simple price and volume. That is it. KISS!!!
Do I have my doubts about this market? Yes. Do I care about my doubts while this market goes up? No! That is that with what I have to say for now. I will be back later on to list the longs here.
Aloha and I will see you at Investors Paradise...hopefully, very soon. It is up to DELL and FedEx when they want me to be up. posted by Joshua_NControl at 4:56 PM 0 comments
Notes From Yesterday's Missed Commentary. This action is really nice after last week. But I had 445 stocks on my list tonight compared to 510 on Monday. So some of the momentum feels like it is slowing already. Still another accumulation day is better than a selloff. Even though it was a minor acc. day, it still was an accumulation day.
I love what IBD wrote last night about....
....Some pundits linked Tuesday's midterm elections to gains in the stock and bond markets.
Others noted that November and December have historically been strong months for stocks.
A few pointed to past instances of market rallies occurring after a major event or period of uncertainty, such as an election.
Such suggestions make for enticing headlines, but they shouldn't be treated as gospel.
As the summer wound to a close, pundits warned that September historically is the worst month for stocks. Traders would return from their summer vacations in a foul mood, we were told.
Instead, the Nasdaq surged 3.4%, continuing the rally in effect today.
The market often looks ahead several months as it charts its course. Today's blaring headline may not have as big an impact as one would expect if tomorrow's news changes.
Keep watching the daily and weekly price and volume action of the major market indexes. Make sure to also track the action of market leaders. Treat all other factors as secondary.
...They echoed the exact thing I discussed the day before but did it much clearer than I ever could have.
Bottom line is your opinions and my opinions don't matter.
The elections dominated the headlines today. This is going to continue to dominate the headlines. I don't expect anything crazy except the trend to stay in place. I know that may seem crazy but whatever.
I am using a friends laptop to write this and I will write commentary about today's market in about three hours. I just wanted to post this. I will be able to scan my charts tonight at my friends house so I will have new longs posted tonight. Unless, he goes somewhere, then I am fucked.
I will be back soon enough. I have not ordered my computers yet but the new harddrive is in the mail. I will see you when I see you at Investors Paradise. Aloha!
Lame-Duck Market; Stock Indexes Reverse And Give A Clear Distribution Day. Stocks opened higher and were holding those gains until right around 1PM EST. Then a small portion of hell broke loose. Stocks started falling, picking up volume to the downside, until the closing bell. I guess the market didn't like the fact that democrats took control of the House and Senate. At least that is what I am going to use. Why not? That reason is as good as any other reason, and since I hate their economic policies more than a root canal without novacaine, it seems good enough to me.
After showing early gains, stocks reversed, with the SP 600 leading the downside with a .9% loss, the DJIA fell .6%, the SP 500 fell .5%, and the Nasdaq fell .4%.
Volume was much higher on the Nasdaq--almost 25% higher--and higher on the NYSE. Breadth was negative on the NYSE by a 10-to-7 margin and negative on the Nasdaq by a 2-to-1 margin.
This now gives the Nasdaq four distribution days and the SP 500 three distribution days in the last four weeks. (I hope that clears it up for you, Lafayette).
A pullback was to be expected soon, after 3-4 up days on the indexes. However, the count of distribution days should peak some interest. Much more now than before, especially since we are getting near the end of earnings season.
One distribution day fell off yesterday but today's distribution day brings the count right back to where it was before the bell. The new count has a more negative look to the distro days this time around than it did just yesterday.
The good news today came from Gold. The Philly Gold/Silver Index rallied 4.3%, besting all other indexes today.
The bad news came from Biotech and Healthcare. Those major indexes fell 2% and 1.9% respectively. But Telecom and Financial stocks also sucked it up hard.
There was also some other good news. Of course, the media decided to skip the news that should have been a welcome to all democrats. The trade deficit....ah why get into it. Then we would just be stating facts and that would make the economy look strong and we wouldn't want that. So I will just do what the media does when good news comes out about the economy. Skip it!
The market still has not rolled over. Expecting it to do so and for things to get worse from here is a purely amateur play; just like predicting the market falling or rising. Who gives a rat a** about your opinion or my opinion? Nobody. Especially the market. The market really doesn't care what you or I think. PERIOD!
Stay disciplined and follow the big trend of this market. That trend is up, in case you are blind. Pullbacks still have the odds in the favor of being accumulated and not sold into. When the market pulls back and then does not rally to new highs, then you have every reason to start to get bearish. Then when that failure of hitting new highs translates into prices hitting lower lows than the previous dip, then you have every right to start searching for shorts. Until then you are strictly gambling. I don't gamble; I am a professional speculator.
If you don't think the best time to start shorting is until AFTER the market rollsover, do me a favor and go buy "How to Make Money Shorting Stocks" by William O'Neil. Until you read that book, I refuse to argue anyone that disagrees with my previous points.
BTW, Congrats to the party of cut and runners, retreat and defeat, tax and tax, investigate and litigate, and negotiate and do-nothing. I am sure you guys will find a way to sign a "peace" deal with Hamas, Iran, and Syria. I am also just as sure it will turn out as well as North Korea and Jimmy Carter's blunder in not supporting the Shah. I also look forward to the withdrawal from Iraq. Just like in Vietnam, their leaders knew you were weak and easy to defeat. The party of losers, you now have two years to scare the f*** out of us.
Here is part of an article for you to digest. If you are not a fan of the truth and want to live in a fantasy world you don't have to read this blog. I will never appease that way of thinking.
While Democrats in Congress always assert they "support our troops," their political policies and actions have continually undermined our nation's fight to win the war on terror and defend America. Here is their national security record:
1. On missile defense of America — Democrats voted against it.
2. On the Patriot Act — Democrats voted against it.
3. On tapping foreign terrorists' phone calls to the U.S. — Democrats voted against it.
4. On tracing terrorists' money flow between foreign banks — Democrats voted against it.
5. On building a border wall to control illegal immigration and stop dope — dealers, terrorists and criminals — Democrats voted against it.
6. On interrogating captured terrorists — 194 Democrats just voted against it.
7. On telling the world (and our enemy) about a timetable for withdrawing from and deserting Iraq — this is Democrats' retreat and defeat plan.
Think that's bad? Here's the Democrats' national defense record for the last 40 years:
A. Democrat President Johnson misjudges the Gulf of Tonkin incident, pursues the Vietnam War until a liberal CBS TV announcer thinks we're losing and says we should quit. So we quit and lose. The victorious communists then kill 2 million innocent civilians.
B. Democrat President Jimmy Carter during the Cold War withdraws U.S. support for our longtime military ally, the Shah of Iran. Carter doesn't like his human rights treatment of Soviet spies in prison. The shah is overthrown, and Ayatollah Khomeini returns, seizes power and creates an Islamic nation. Opponents are killed, the idea of suicide bombers is introduced to the PLO, and Iran's oil wealth is used to spawn and support Hezbollah, a terrorist militia that killed 241 Marines in a Beirut bombing and that lately attacked Israel. Iranian radicals storm our embassy, taking 52 American hostages for 444 days. Carter fails in an amateurish attempt to rescue them. Eight military personnel and eight aircraft are lost in a desert foul-up.
Democrat Carter, self-assured and well-meaning but dangerously naive, was responsible for bringing into power an Iranian Islamic regime that's now creating nuclear weapons to wipe out Israel and blackmail the U.S. and Europe. Iran has further provided weapons and support to Shiite militia and death squads in Iraq and could provide nukes to al-Qaida, with which it has a working relationship.
After the Soviets meet the inexperienced Carter, they invade Afghanistan. Then the communists capture Ethiopia, South Yemen, Angola, Cambodia, Mozambique, Grenada and Nicaragua. The Afghanistan invasion attracts young Osama bin Laden, who raises money and recruits other Muslims to fight the anti-Soviet jihad. After the Soviets leave, this band becomes al-Qaida.
So Carter's glaring weakness in dealing with the communists and Iran leads directly to both the current terrorist nuclear threat of Iran and the birth of al-Qaida, a group of mass murderers that would never have been possible if the Soviet Union's Leonid Brezhnev had not been emboldened to invade Afghanistan after seeing an inept, appeasing American president, Carter.
Carter's ongoing, worldwide damage to America's future national defense does not end there. In 1994, civilian Carter goes to North Korea and negotiates an agreement that President Clinton and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright buy into. The North Koreans use our money and help to secretly spend the next six years in researching and building nukes. Deceived again by a worthless piece of paper, Carter becomes America's Neville Chamberlain.
These Democrat policies and actions were not only incompetent and ineffective in defending the U.S. They also proved to be highly dangerous, creating the greatest threats to America's future security — a radical Islamic Iran and a North Korea with nukes, either one of which could hand weapons off to al-Qaida killers. And Carter is still out there giving us advice.
Ronald Reagan inherited from Democrat mismanagement a rapidly expanding communist enemy, 12% inflation (highest in 34 years), 21% interest rates (highest since Abe Lincoln was president), a depleted military and a serious energy crisis. Reagan's motto was "peace through strength," not peace through retreat, weakness and accommodation.
He kicked communists out of Grenada and defeated them in Nicaragua, Ethiopia and Afghanistan. He supported those fighting against communist regimes. He attacked Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, who much later surrendered his nuclear weapons program after America's military captured the tyrant Saddam Hussein hiding in a hole in the ground.
For eight years congressional Democrats ridiculed and fought all of Reagan's defense and economic policies. They said he was dumb, stupid, too old and a warmonger who was going to start WWIII with the Soviet Union. Democrats were proved wrong on nearly every vital Reagan policy. His tax cuts set off a huge seven-year economic and technological boom, just as George Bush's broad tax cuts have done, creating millions of new jobs.
In the end, the Reagan-Bush administration defeated the 70-year-old Soviet Union, and communism disintegrated on the ash heap of history under Republican Reagan's relentless pressure and determination to build a missile defense system to make the Soviet nuclear arsenal obsolete.
The present terrorist threat to our security did not begin on 9/11, but in the early 1990s, after Democrat Clinton was elected in November 1992. In February 1993, terrorists bombed New York's World Trade Center. In October 1993 two U.S. Black Hawk helicopters were shot down in Somalia. Eighteen Americans were killed and 73 wounded. In response, Clinton withdrew our forces.
In January 1995, Philippines police uncovered a plot to blow up 12 American airliners over the ocean. In June 1996, Khobar Towers, which housed U.S. Air Force personnel in Saudi Arabia, was blown up, killing 19 U.S. servicemen and one Saudi and wounding 372 others.
In February 1998, bin Laden declared "war on America," saying the murder of any American anywhere on the earth was the "individual duty" of every Muslim. In August 1998, al-Qaida blew up U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, killing 200 and injuring 5,000. In October 2000, 17 U.S. sailors were killed when al-Qaida attacked the USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden.
According to Michael Scheuer, a 22-year CIA veteran and head of the agency's bin Laden unit, the 9/11 Commission report confirms that the Clinton administration had at least 10 chances to get the al-Qaida leader, but Sandy Berger, Richard Clarke or Clinton simply could not make the decision to act. The CIA knew where bin Laden was and the military had plans, but they were almost always called off at the last minute.
So when presented with 10 specific opportunities, Clinton's Democrat administration never took any action that was effective or produced any positive result. From Lyndon Johnson in the 1960s to the policies and actions they push today, Democrats haven't been just weak and ineffective in defending against America's enemies.
This year, two other forces are feverishly working to undermine this election and our war on terror. One force is made up of elite national media based mainly on the East Coast. On several occasions they have given our enemy vital defense secrets. They also disgracefully report and relentlessly repeat only bad news. Such dishonest journalism confuses and deliberately misleads the American public. The TV networks have lost 50% of their audience and still refuse to change their one-sided news coverage.
The other force is represented by terrorists who are desperately attacking as many people as possible in Iraq in the weeks leading up to our election. They believe they can intimidate us like they intimidated Spanish voters in the wake of the Madrid bombings and affect our congressional election in a way that will result in our quick withdrawal from Iraq. But quitters never win.
As difficult and complex as the war has been, America has a very strong economy — with over 95% of our population employed and 70% owning homes — plus freedom, opportunity and a standard of living that other countries can only envy.
We've also been protected against further terrorist attacks by a strong, competent and determined president.
Happy Birthday, USMC!! Have A Great Veteran's Day Weekend!! God Bless All Of You Who Served!! Stocks turned a day of listless action with minor losses into a day of gains, as the market ends an election week how it started.
At the close, the SP 600 led to the upside with a .7% gain, the Nasdaq rallied .6%, the SP 500 gained .2%, and the DJIA lagged with a .06% gain. The IBD 100 rallied .3%, lagging the tech and small caps.
Volume fell substantially across the board, due to the Veteran's Day holiday. Breadth was positive by a 2-to-1 margin on the NYSE and by a 3-to-2 margin on the Nasdaq.
For the week, the DJIA gained 1%, the SP 500 rallied 1.2%, the SP 600 gained 2%, and the Nasdaq led the way with a 2.5% gain. It is very nice to continue to see the Nasdaq and SP 600 outperform after lagging at the start of the rally.
The standouts on the session were the Transport stocks. Gold and silver, yesterday's biggest winners, took it the hardest today with a 2.5% haircut. This volatile action is too much for me. I will leave this market to the ever-so-smart future traders.
The four month old rally is still in a strong uptrend. It has not been easy trading but stocks are making gains and holding them. Sure some blow up here and there but normally it is after already locking in gains. A small cut is always better than having an artery sliced.
This rally still has plenty of mojo and the correction everyone is looking for now has the feel, if it happens, that it will not be much. I believe I hit on this point yesterday but seeing it work today proves that possible short covering or under-invested bulls still have work to do.
Stocks are doing a better job this week than they were last week. They are trading much firmer and in much calmer fashion, for the most part. The earnings season is always rough on stocks and this one was no different. Throw in a mid-term election and you can't blame stocks for being so volatile. Traders are an emotional beast. And those emotions can be reflected by traders feeling like they are missing some gains. That fear of under performance will surely lead to some pressure on the traders to step up and bid stocks up. If not, then we take the appropriate action.
Dip buyers are still there and the bears still have no momentum going for them. Nothing happened today that has changed the current intermediate market conditions.
Please, read my last five post, to get a firm handle on the current situation of what the market is actually doing; not opinions from morons who think they know what the market is going to do. NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE. You need to understand this. I repeat, NOBODY EVER CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE, WHEN IT COMES TO THE MARKET.
Stocks Gain On Volume Well Below The 50 Day Volume Average; Techs Lead The Rally. An upbeat comment by the Dallas Fed head Fisher helped stocks mark gains across the board, ahead of an economic data filled week.
At the close the Nasdaq led the way with a .7% gain, the SP 500 and SP 600rallied .3%, and the DJIA rallied .2%.
Volume was higher on the Nasdaq and a tad lower on the NYSE. The volume, overall, was well below the 50 day volume average of both indexes for the second straight day.
Breadth was slightly positive on both indexes.
The biggest big-deal of the day has to deal with the Nasdaq as it is now at its highest mark since February 2001. This shows that no matter how bad it gets, the market always comes back, in time.
Today's little change on low volume really keeps everything the same as it was on Thursday and Friday. But coming up this week should be some market moving events. At least that is what we are going to hear.
Tons of economic reports are due out for traders to digest as the week goes on. PPI, retail sales, Nov. Economic Optimism Index, FOMC minutes, CPI, and Oct housing starts are just some of the fun stuff that is on tap.
This will be talked about all as market moving news. However, trust me, market participants are going to make their moves this week no matter what the data says. The data will only act as "the reason why they are moving." Journalist do not trade for a living. Why trust people that don't even put their money on the line. It is amazing that people will make investment decisions based on the news events these "journalist" report. Even though they don't trade for a living, people will invest off of their advise. Why?
Besides all of the economic reports, we have earnings from DELL HD WMT TGT HPQ and AMAT. It should be at least a busy week for the "Why did the stock do that" trader.
The bulls continue to make money in this market. There is no use fighting the trend. Until it changes, we should just invest with it and enjoy the ride. When we get some distribution days, are charts start failing, and we lack new buys then we will know for a FACT that the party is over.
Even though the markets are starting to have that overbought feeling, I still don't want to anticipate an end to this trend. I have a lot of stocks showing some very strong gains (look below--the numbers are % gains) now. The disappointment of bears and underinvested bulls missing this move might be the catalyst for further price gains. Either way, I will be ready.
Have a great day and I will see you at Investors Paradise.
Logged
