At the moment  the euro is down .0179 for the week against the US dollar sending gold down $6.10 with silver once again bucking the trend by holding on for no change.  The silver lease rates are still putting pressure on the shorts.

(5-16-05  Gold and silver were down in the Far East and Europe during the night .  Gold is still down .90 but silver is up .05 at this time.

(5-17-05)  Gold and silver are off to a good start this morning with gold currently up
$1.50 and silver up .09.   The silver lease rates are up this morning and it is beginning to appear as though the major banks are putting pressure on the shorts
that are approximately two years silver supply short.  The one and two month contracts are still economically viable but the three month, six month and one year contracts are still to high for leasing forward.

(5-18-05)  Gold and silver got off to a good start this morning with gold up .50 at $419.90 and silver up .08 at $7.10.

Golden Phoenix hould do well today with news out this morning.

Golden Phoenix Receives Permits From Humboldt County to Build a Molybdenum Mill for Its Ashdown Mine

SPARKS, Nev., May 18, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM), announced today it has received approvals from the Humboldt County Commissioners and Planning Commission to operate the Ashdown Moly Mine and Mill Project, located near Denio, Nevada. Building permits have been issued to Golden Phoenix by the Humboldt County Building Department to erect the structure that will house the mill machinery. Concurrently, the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection has issued written approval authorizing the mill machinery to be moved from its staging area onto the mill site.
With receipt of these permits, Golden Phoenix starts construction of a 100-ton-per-day flotation mill to process molybdenite ore from the Ashdown mine, beginning with a targeted section of the Sylvia vein, which is detailed in the Golden Phoenix press release dated March 8, 2005. As soon as cash flow from the sale of molybdenum concentrates is established, Golden Phoenix will initiate an exploratory program to locate and define both existing and future moly targets, as well as prospective gold mineralization, using underground and surface step-out drilling.

Golden Phoenix is earning a 60% interest in the Ashdown Joint Venture with Win-Eldrich Mines, Ltd. (TSXV: WEX), and serves as manager and operator of the property.

Silver and gold are taking a hit this morning with gold down $2.00 at $418.10 and silver down .12 at $7.00.

i thought every one might like this its  Forbes veiw on gold stocks. i felt it was good
http://www.forbes.com/investme.....hootix&referrer=

Gold and silver were up in Europe and are holding in the US after 20 minutes of trading.  Gold up $2.20 at $418.50 and silver up .11 at $7.05

Today was a good day for gold and silver.  Gold closed up $1.20 at $418.30 and silver closed up .14 at $7.12.  After the close about two hours ago they continued up in Australia with gold up another $1.00 and silver up an additional .08.  

Silver appears to be breaking out a bit this morning and has broken through the $7.20 resistance level. Silver up .12 at $7.26, up .32 for the week so far. All silver lease rates are up and now too high for any viable roll over or selling short.

NEW YORK, May 27 (Reuters) - Silver futures in New York surged to a one-month high early Friday on fund buying sparked by talk of bullion demand and a new silver ETF (exchange-traded fund), while gold benefited from dollar weakness in holiday-shortened trading, dealers said.

"Speculation about tightness and speculation about the ETF from Barclays prompted some buying yesterday, and that has triggered fund stops (stop-loss buy orders) that pushed this thing up to $7.28" an ounce, said a COMEX silver floor broker.

"There was a little buying above the $7.245-7.25 area that pushed this thing up to $7.28. It looks like good trade selling there, though, and I think you're going to have more resistance at $7.30, because it's a psychological level," he added.

Metals trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange will wrap up early at about noon EDT (1600 GMT), and U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

July silver futures <SIN5> on the NYMEX's COMEX division rose 11.8 cents by 9:43 a.m. to $7.28 an ounce, near the top of a $7.12 to $7.285 session range and its loftiest since April 27.

Turnover was an estimated 11,000 contracts by 10 a.m.

Spot silver <XAG=> was at $7.23/26, up from $7.13/16 at the close. Friday's London fix was at $7.17.

"Silver is continuing to lead the precious metals complex," said David Meger, a metals analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago, who saw broad fund interest over the last few days despite a firm dollar and softer gold prices.

A strong dollar weighs on metals as the dollar-denominated commodities get pricier for traders using foreign currencies.

Late on Wednesday, silver industry sources said Barclays Global Investors plans to file for registration seeking regulatory approval for a silver ETF within two months.

Gold closed up$1.80 today at $419.30 and up $2.00 for the week.  Silver closed up .13 today at $7.27 and up .33 for the week.

By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden                    
May 27, 2005

http://www.adenforecast.com  


Gold remains bullish, despite the drop in gold shares and the rising U.S. dollar. This alone is unusual and it raises an important question… Could gold shares be leading the way down for gold, or will gold’s firmness eventually pull the shares back up?

Even though the fundamentals for gold have not changed, we also have to keep an open mind and remember that when it comes to the markets, anything is possible. So here’s what we’re watching…

GOLD SHARES: Fell at critical juncture

The fall in gold shares means a critical juncture was resolved in favor of gold and it was bad for gold shares.  As you can see on Charts 1B and C, gold shares, and the ratio of gold shares to gold both resisted and fell from major downtrends, breaking below their uptrends since 2001. On the other hand, gold’s major four year trend is up (see Chart 1A).



Chart 1

For now, gold shares are oversold (see Chart 2B). This means we’ll likely see a further bounce up in gold shares in the upcoming months. The recent fall caused the XAU to move into a sideways band (see Chart 2A). If XAU now stays above 82, it could eventually rise to possibly its 2003-04 prior C highs as it rises from the lower to the higher side of the band.



Chart 2

This is why we think it’s best to keep the gold and silver shares you have rather than sell them now. Once the coming intermediate rise is over, however, we’ll reevaluate our gold share position and either keep some or sell and move heavier into gold, depending on the outcome.

BIG PICTURE: Gold better

The big picture is suggesting that gold could remain stronger than the shares for some time. Charts 1A and B show the relationship between gold and gold shares since 1969.

Here you can see that gold and gold shares generally move together on a major trend basis. There have only been three time periods since 1969 when gold shares were much weaker than gold.

The ratio of the two shows this best (see Chart 1C); that was in 1969-1972, 1974-1980 and 1996-2001. Of these three cases, the two in the 1970s were similar but the 96-01 case was different. If a renewed leg down in the ratio is indeed underway, the gold share weakness today could be similar to the 1970s.  

In both cases, gold shares peaked before gold. Both then fell together but gold shares declined much more than gold prior to both markets reaching bottoms in 1969 and 1976 (see Charts 1A and B).  

In the 1974-80 case, this coincided with gold’s steep 1½ year decline in-between the two powerful gold bull markets in the 70s. And in both cases, the weakness in gold shares and gold coincided with recession pressures at that time.  But once this ended, gold rose strongly and it remained much stronger than gold shares, even though gold shares were rising too.

We’re not saying today’s gold share weakness will take the same form, but if it’s similar, this could be a first sign of caution that gold’s bull market may be temporarily interrupted before it heads higher.  This is only a possibility but it’s something we’re watching, especially since we’re now seeing some signs of an economic slowdown.

The 1996-2001 period was different. It was the worst and last phase of the 20 year old bear market and gold shares were hit the most when the internet revolution swept the land. For now, gold shares will likely remain weaker than gold and we’ll watch the key gold numbers to keep us on track.

GOLD TIMING

Gold’s been consolidating since reaching a D low on February 8, which is typical for this time within the intermediate bull market cycle. What we call A rises and B declines are, together, a consolidation phase and in a bull market it’s the springboard for the best rise we call C, when gold reaches a new high (see Chart 3A).



Chart 3

For now, gold is in an intermediate B decline but it will stay bullish and the major trend will remain up as long as gold holds above its 65-week moving average, which identifies the major uptrend, at $415. And since the B decline appears to be near an end, a C rise may soon be getting started. That’ll be reinforced if gold now stays above $415 and then rises and stays above $425.

Silver is looking good and gold shares have been rebounding over the past couple of weeks. Could they be leading gold up into the next C rise? That may be and so far, so good.

On the downside, however, it’ll be a different story if gold closes and stays below $415. In that case, the rise since 2001 would be turning down indicating gold’s bull market will likely be temporarily interrupted. In other words, a situation similar to what happened in 1975-76 could then unfold.

We’ll soon see how this unfolds and since we’re at the moment of truth, we should know soon.

Gold and silver were down in Australia through London last night with gold down $5.20 at $414.00 and silver down .15 at $7.12 when the US market opened.

Silver is now up .14 after being down .15 in London.  Gold is now down $2.20.

Silver and gold:

Under ordinary circumstances gold and silver tend to rise or fall together. Strength in the euro will usually mean weakness in gold and silver. Following are the past five friday closing prices for gold and silver:

4-29-05---------gold $434.40...silver $6.87
5-6-05----------gold $425.70...silver $6.91
5-13-05---------gold $419.70...silver $6.91
5-20-05---------gold $417.30...silver $6.94
5-27-05---------gold $419.30...silver $7.27
At the moment---gold $414.40...silver $7.44

During this time the euro fell from $1.2871 to $1.2576.

A few minutes ago all silver lease forward rates increased keeping the squeeze on the silver shorts.

Silver was down in London but changed direction when the US market opened. Silver up .04 after the first 10 minutes

A few minutes ago all silver lease rates increased again.

(6-2-05)  Today gold closed up $7.20 at $422.30 and silver up .02 at $7.51.

The one, two, three and six month lease rates are down this morning but not enough to help the paper players.

At the moment gold is up $1.10 and silver up .02

(6-3-05)  

Gold closed up $3.80 at $423.10 and silver up .22 at $7.49 for the week while the eoro was down .0362 at $1.2214 for the week

That should read euro not eoro.

After the US market has been opened for one hour gold is up $3.00 at $426.10 and silver is up .08 at $7.57

Gold price could triple by 2015 as resources dwindle
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The price of gold is set to rocket, says Andisa gold analyst Dr David Davis.

His report, 'A trilogy of gold - an exploration in three parts', indicates that gold will reach $1 200 an ounce by the end of 2015.

His prediction is that in 2008 it will go to $700 an ounce, a year later it will climb to $750 an ounce and another $50 an ounce to reach $800 an ounce in 2010.

These predictions answer the question blazing through the industry currently: what will gold sell at and what will shares be worth in 10 to 15 years' time.

In arriving at the answer, Davis looks at the current gold price, historical trends in mining operations and historical supply and demand patterns in the 55-page report.

He argues that supply is falling behind demand and fewer reserves are being mined as resources diminish.

Not a new phenomenon, but previously this trend has been masked by Central bank sales and producer hedging - a dying practice.

When this ceases, says Davis, economies of the age-old supply/demand equation will take over and flame the price of the metal.

This, he argues, will mean investors having to be in the right place at the right time to make money.

Traditionally, gold has been a haven when currencies turned risky, having soared since 1971 when the gold standard was abolished.

Currently, the dollar weakness and euro strength underpin the gold price.

Volatility in the price ensues when there is political or supply uncertainty - causing speculation in the market.

“The correlation between the dollar:euro exchange rate and the gold price is statistically significant.

“The correlation means that a one-cent change in the dollar:euro exchange rate drives the gold price by $3,6/oz,” says the report.

Davis predicts that, given the US's deficit, could see the dollar:euro go to 1,4 by year-end.

Dollar weakness will continue through 2005, possibly compounded by the Chinese yuan's move away from a dollar peg.

Add to this inflation, and the dollar will remain weak yet will continue to underpin the gold price.

Dollar weakness is set to continue for the next ten years and supply/demand factors will, as Davis says, “trigger a quantum upward change in the gold price - enough to sustain a higher gold price, but now at a new gold price $ equilibrium”.

Davis moves on to analyse gold production since 1900 which, he says indicates three regular 30-year cycles and a fourth incomplete, cycle.

This current cycle is entering a downswing, and a production upswing will only occur when global production has dropped to about 1 500 t.

“The timing of this low point in the cycle is likely to be between 2010 and 2015.”

The peak of the last cycle has already been passed, in 2001, at 2 621 t.

Davis says that mine production over the next ten years is likely to decline significantly.

This is, in part, due to dwindling reserves, and new mines coming on stream will not offset the shortfall.

Global production, says Davis, will drop after 2006 to between 2 100 t and 1 790 t by 2010.

Hopes of more gold underground dashed

Andisa calculates 29 new mines are due to come on stream.

“If all 29 new mines are commissioned, global production will decline after a possible peak in 2006.

Dwindling reserves have prompted companies to merge - merely shuffling bases of gold from one to another.

In addition, exploration has moved away from the safe Archean terrain and now the possibility of finding sizable ore-bodies is shrinking- yet again driving price up.

Davis also points out that the reserve grade is falling off, and not being replaced in time.

“The average life-of-mine is on the decline because of shrinking reserves and flat production.

“The average life-of-mine in 1998 was 10 years; in 2003, it was 9,3 years.”

Costs that have decreased on the back of the dollar are likely to swing and turn upwards.

This will trigger higher prices, he says.

Davis turns to a hypothetical gold company to determine what the future holds for gold.

Production, he says, will decline and force price up as demand outstrips supply.

This decline will be aggravated by an increase in costs, forcing marginal mines to close.

The report then turns to supply and demand over the last 16 years.

“Only once in 16 consecutive years has primary gold demand exceeded primary supply.”

On average, the yearly deficit is around 395 t.

But no trend exists between the deficit and the gold price - a trend Davis has indicated will change.

What is the future of the gold price?

Davis reiterates that the dollar will continue to underpin the gold price, but the supply/demand factor will enter the picture and push prices up.

In addition, “between 2007 and 2010, supply and demand dynamics will undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.

Costs will rise, forcing prices up again.

Silver lease forward rates are unchanged today and the gold and silver quotes are flat. This may be due to a waiting period until Alan Greenspan makes his report. It is commonly believed that his report will hurt the US dollar

The world’s largest primary silver producer

Pan American Silver (PAAS, Nasdaq, 14.40) is neck-and-neck as the world’s largest primary silver producer (and will probably overtake Coeur d’Alene this year). It has six producing mines throughout the Americas, with another two scheduled to commence production in the next two years. It production growth over its 10-year life has been phenomenal.

But it has production risk, and this has been amply demonstrated over its history, with production losses and difficulties at many of its mines at different times. Indeed, Pan American reported its first ever earnings at the end of last year. In the latest quarter, it was back to a loss as costs rose (with cash costs up 72 cents to $4.50 an ounce).

Nonetheless, the company is well run, has a solid balance sheet (with virtually $100 million in cash and no debt), and a strong growth profile. The stock is highly liquid and an institutional favorite, so in a sustained silver bull market, Pan American should be a prime beneficiary.

Top exploration company has matured

My favorite exploration company is Silver Standard (SSRI, Nasdaq, 11.77), though to call it such belies its tremendous growth in recent years, and its near-term productions potential. The company has among the largest silver resource of any company, with almost 1 billion ounces of silver at 17 projects in seven countries. But the company has no producing mines, preferring, until recently, to eschew production to avoid the pitfalls that often accompany mining, as well as to keep its resources until prices are higher.

Partly for this reason, and because it is among the purest of the silver companies (with over 2/3rds exposure to the white metal), the stock has arguably the most leverage to silver of any silver stock.

More recently, given the higher silver price—at $7.40, not far off its recent high, and nearly twice where it traded throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s—as well as the company’s greatly increased balance sheet, the “no-production” policy has shifted. Though the company intends keeping most of its projects “in reserve” for now, it is advancing towards production at several projects and will likely be producing at two (or even three) projects within the next couple of years.

Newmont sees $US525 gold price by Jan
07:41 AEST Fri Jun 10 2005
AAP
The price of gold should rise to $525 an ounce by the start of 2006, a top executive of gold giant Newmont Mining Corp. said on Thursday.

Pierre Lassonde, president of the world's largest gold mining company, cited an expected decline in the U.S. dollar by another 15 per cent against a basket of currencies, world economic growth strong enough to keep physical demand buoyant and a continuing gradual decline in gold output.

Speaking at the Reuters Mining Summit, Lassonde said consumer and investor demand for gold is tenacious at current prices and world production is in a decline, which should hoist gold out of a current "$400 to $475 range."

"When you add it up, we think you can see gold at $525 by Jan '06," he said to reporters at Reuters offices in New York.

"The physical market is very strong at these prices. There is enormous demand," Lassonde said.

Investors are buying gold as well, in favor over the euro and the dollar, he added, with bullion making its way into vaults in Switzerland and heading into the Middle East, India, China and Turkey.




"Those are the big markets right now," said Lassonde.

Newmont expects gold production to fall by 0.5 to 1 per cent this year and next, while the company's own output growth, as the leading worldwide producer, should be 4 to 5 per cent over next three years, the executive said.

Spot gold changed hands at about $424 an ounce at midday Thursday, down 4 per cent since the start of the year.

A dip below $425 in the last month was primarily due to slowing demand for jewelry from India after the busy March-to-May wedding season and decreased buying by Italian jewelers before summer holidays begin in July, he said.

Still, the market has recovered from repeated attempts to press it below $415 because of solid demand, said Lassonde.

Bullion hit a 16-year high of $456.75 last December on the back of a falling dollar, which tends to make the U.S. currency-priced metal cheaper for non-U.S. investors.

"We believe that the dollar trade-weighted index has another leg down to go, another 15 per cent, mostly against the Asian currencies. We think we're going to see a great deal of that happening in the next nine months.

"If we see a revaluation of the (Chinese yuan), I would think gold sales would increase even more substantially" throughout Asia, Lassonde said.

Here are the two most bullish factors affecting silver.

1. The world has nearly run out of silver.

2. The nations of the world have printed up nearly unlimited amounts of unbacked paper money.

Put together, these two factors have never occurred before in the history of mankind.


Jason Hommel

Jason Hommel

Given that the world is almost out of above ground refined silver, a permanant major price rise could happen at any time. The two silver surveys estimate there is about 200 million ounces to 600 million ounces of silver in known verifiable locations. At the COMEX, as of close of business: 06/18/2004, there are 45.8 mil oz. registered for delivery, and 71.9 million oz. Eligible. However, the silver in either category may be held by long term investors, who may be reading this very commentary, and who may not sell until much higher prices. Silver is coming to market, uneconomically, through three main sources: 1. As a byproduct of other mining, and 2. as people inherit silver and then sell it for the quick cash, and 3. as governments and bullion banks dump it. These supplies are meeting current demand. Literally, however, at $6/oz., a billion dollars cannot buy silver anymore. By the time a billionaire tried to buy silver bullion with a billion dollars, the price may be pushed up to about $40/oz. At $6/oz, a billion dollars is 167 million ounces. There is just not that much silver for sale at $6/oz. in the world today. If a billionaire was willing to pay any price to obtain "a billion dollars of silver", and if he found out that he could only obtain 25 million ounces, he might bid the price up to $40/oz.! Therefore, a major price rise can happen at any time one very wealthy person decides to buy".

I attended the Vancouver conference that he has referred to and listened to him speak. He is the most bullish silver analyst that I have ever seen. The over $1,000 dollar per ounce figure that he mentioned at the conference is high in my opinion but when the world runs out of silver which is desperately needed in industry, who knows?

Great post popeye,
As with a lot of the worlds natural resources, our supplies are depleting every day. PEOPLE you need to realize that it is the day of commodities is apon us. When you buy stocks now you already need to consider how the changing price of resources will affect things. If you want to get rich, cut out the middle man.

(6-13-05) Gold closed up $2.00 at $428.90 and silver closed down .01 at $7.24.

SRFDF news out this morning with some decent assay results on platinum and palladium.

15 minutes after the NY market opened gold is up .90 silver is up .11.  This may be due to the weakness in the US dopllar.